Sen. Pope

The race for lieutenant governor is revealing a much more aggressive left wing in the state Democratic party with important implications for economic policy should Deb Haaland become the next governor. 

The race for the number two spot features two leading hopefuls--term-limited State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard and ABQ state Senator Harold Pope. 

Their below-the-radar contest is to fill the vacancy created when Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver won the primary nomination over Pope but withdrew for health reasons. The race will be decided by about 500 members of the party's State Central Committee in a four-day electronic vote July 25-29. 

The party's more pronounced left wing was in evidence at the June primary election when moderate Democrats failed to muster respectable percentages in even conservative counties such as Eddy, Chaves and Lea, revealing that middle of the road politics is practically extinct among the party's nominating wing.

Now the Pope-Garcia Richard battle unveils party progressives even going after Haaland who is being labeled a "corporate Democrat" by some supporters of Pope. That is quite the turn of events given that Haaland was elected to the ABQ congressional seat and in 2018 immediately caucused with the progressive "Squad." 

It is not social issues such as abortion or trans rights that are now in dispute; it is critical economic matters and comes as Democratic socialists make major strides in New York City and elsewhere. In New Mexico that dynamic is being manifested in several key proposals where the newly energized left parts ways with Haaland who is urging committee members to name Garcia Richard as her running mate rather than the more progressive Pope.

--Private Equity Takeovers of PNM and the New Mexico Gas Company.

Garcia Richard

Pope opposes Blackstone's proposed $11.5 billion acquisition of TXNM Energy, PNM’s parent company. There is a similar private equity bid of $1.250 billion from Bernhard Capital Partners for the New Mexico Gas Company. Both takeovers await decisions from the Public Regulation Commission (PRC). 

Pope argues an unbridled thirst for profit by the bidders would ultimately "screw" ratepayers. He has joined protests outside PNM headquarters to condemn the deals. Rather than just regulating the private equity firms, Pope introduced Senate Memorial 9 urging the PRC to pause the acquisitions. 

He also proposed a socialist alternative: having the state use its permanent funds to buy a majority stake in the utilities. He argues this would keep utility profits in New Mexico and diversify state revenue away from volatile oil and gas royalties. 

Haaland has focused her platform on lower utility costs and holding public utilities accountable, rather than pushing for an outright state takeover of the energy grid. While enviros have pressured the PRC to reject the Blackstone and BCP bids, Haaland’s approach leans on enforcement of the state's Energy Transition Act to ensure utility profits don’t come at the expense of regular families, but she has stopped short of endorsing Pope's state-ownership plan. 

Says Dem Central Committee member Mitchell Freedman of Rio Rancho:

I continue to say this is an important political moment to show Deb Haaland she and her consultants can't run the state like she ran the Democratic Party (as chairwoman) in 2016. The push for Pope is part of the Dem base revolt against corporate Dem leadership and the consultants who simultaneously fund and advise them.

JUPITER 

On the massive Project Jupiter data center being built in Santa Teresa, Pope, 52, wants the project halted, citing concerns about the strain hyperscale data centers place on water resources and the local energy grid. 

Jupiter will not tap into the local grid but instead use natural gas fuel cells for power. But enviros assert the center could still produce carbon emissions equivalent to a coal-fired power plant. Pope is pushing for regulatory interventions, including a statewide data center moratorium as was recently done in New York state.

In contrast Haaland supports a temporary pause on new data centers--but not Jupiter--while the state drafts rules regarding water usage and grid demand. She says: "New Mexico is not a piggy bank and I support our state putting guardrails in place that data centers must follow...Large corporations must do their part. . .As governor, I’d rather fix the guardrails than shut the door on an entire industry."

Garcia Richard, 52, is actually more aligned with Pope than Haaland on Jupiter.. The Land Commissioner made recent headlines by halting a proposed natural gas line to Jupiter that would run across state land--a direct blow to the project and more stern than Haaland's position. 

The bottom line on the divisions now on display in the Democratic party is whether the more insistent leftist positions on economic matters become more relevant in Santa Fe. Will there be state takeovers of gas and electric utilities previously thought inconceivable? A forever ban on data centers? A universal basic income for all residents which Pope has warmed to?

Garcia Richard, with Haaland's blessing, has the edge over the more progressive Pope but no matter who wins the campaign has been revealing. The strain of socialist thinking we've seen in the nation in response to rampant income inequality and the increased cost of living is now a tangible, mainstream ideology in New Mexico. That's a first. How it plays out promises to be more suspenseful than the upcoming election. 

TRAIL DUST

Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima has dropped his independent candidacy for governor after failing to collect 14,574 petition signatures needed to qualify for the November ballot, and he has thrown his support to Republican Gregg Hull. 

Miyagishima, a conservative Dem turned independent, toyed with filing a lawsuit to dispute the high number of signatures required of an independent candidate but decided not to. Still, that threshold, upheld in a long ago court ruling, could use anther going over in an era when registered independent voters now rival the number of registered Republicans. . .

But hold on. There may be a court review yet. A federal lawsuit has been filed challenging the petition requirement that kept Bob Perls from running for the US Senate seat held by Sen. Ben Ray Lujan. Perls, chairman of the newly formed New Mexico Forward Party, filed suit over the requirement that he needed those 14,000 plus signatures to qualify for the ballot. He argues once the Forward Party submitted enough signatures to qualify as a minor party, they should have been allowed to place candidates on the ballot without a further petition requirement. The lawsuit and other info is here.

Former ABQ city clerk and Dem state Sen. Katy Duhigg has a rebuttal: 

The statewide signature requirement for independents and minor parties is much higher than those for major party candidates because those independent and minor party candidates get to skip running in a primary. It’s not a plot, and it’s not unfair. It is the trade off for only having to run in one election (the general election), instead of two (primary and general). . . 

Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez holds a significant money lead over Republican Greg Cunningham in the race for the southern congressional seat. In the latest federal campaign reports Vasquez reports raising $569,000 and having nearly $2.4 million in cash on hand. Cunningham raised $382,000 and reported $768,000 in cash. The Cook Political report ranks the Second Congressional District lean Democrat. Polymarket bettors have Vasquez with an 85 percent chance of victory.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Labels: Ben Ray Lujan, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, Harold Pope, Sen. Katy Duhigg, Stephanie Garcia Richard

Gregg Hull

The Gregg Hull ship has sprung another dangerous leak with DC pundits bailing out amid a developing financial crisis for the Republican gubernatorial nominee. The Cook Political Report has rerated his race with Democratic nominee Deb Haaland, taking it from "Likely Democratic" to "Solid Democratic." 

That is only going to make a difficult situation worse. The ratings are closely watched by the donor class here and in DC. That "solid" rating is reserved for what the predictors consider close to a sure thing and not to be taken lightly. The Cook report is nonpartisan and has an impressive record made over decades of covering congressional and gubernatorial contests. 

The new and improved Democratic rating comes on the heels of that dismal finance report from Hull who reported cash on hand at the end of June of only $298,000 compared to $2.3 million for Haaland. 

She is raising money across the nation at a nearly maniacal pace, receiving nearly $14 million in total.  Most of it is from donors infatuated with her becoming the first Native American governor in state history and the first female Native American governor in the nation.

As we pointed out upon the release of Hull's report, the lack of money flowing to him from big oil is a break with tradition and could be causing other corporate donors to get shy. Now the Cook rating gives them another excuse to stay on the sidelines. 

PLUGGING THE LEAK 

What can plug the leak in Hull's ship? Good polling would help (no public polling has been released yet) and Haaland making a major campaign flub now seems almost mandatory, if Hull is going to make the contest competitive. 

GOP political pro Bob Cornelius offers this:  

Haaland has said she will debate Hull--unlike in the Democratic primary when she turned down debate offers with Sam Begman. Hull needs to seize that and offer multiple debate venues that could prompt errors from Haaland. That in turn could change the pessimistic narrative that is forming over the race for the Republican and spike his fund-raising.

Haaland's campaign is playing it safe and is often light-hearted in social media postings. Hull has not been applying any pressure via the socials or in his public appearances. The former three term Rio Rancho mayor did not directly attack his GOP primary foes and may be employing a similar strategy--at least for the time being. 

Hull's team points out that while his fund-raising lags Haaland's, she has raised most of her millions from out-of-state donors while most of his funding is from inside the state. They see the race closer than the DC pundits. Offered one Hull backer: 

The DC crowd is heavily influenced by national politics and are not tapped in on the ground here. We think the race will gradually change in the weeks ahead. 

AWKWARD TIMES

Sen. Heinrich

It's been an off-the-wall start for Democrat Martin Heinrich's third US Senate term. 

First, only weeks after winning re-election in November 2025 he began musing about running for governor in 2026. But no boomlet developed for the state's senior senator and he had to publicly withdraw his consideration as Deb Haaland was clearly favored by his party.  It was a humiliation he could have done without. 

Then came Heinrich's bizarre embrace of Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin to be the Trump cabinet secretary for the Department of Homeland Security. Heinrich's endorsement of the far-right Mullin amid intense controversy over the immigration enforcement actions of ICE provoked an outcry among Heinrich's political base. Heinrich stuck with Mullin, calling him a "friend," and was one of only two Dem senators who supported his nomination/

Finally, there was this month's implosion of Maine Dem Senate candidate Graham Platner who Heinrich endorsed early and enthusiastically. He even explained away initial concerns about Platner's past. Platner then became undone over a rape allegation and was forced to withdraw last week and Heinrich was forced to announce that he could no longer support Platner.  

Nicknamed the First Endorser for his across-the-board endorsements of candidates ranging from congress to county commissioner, Heinrich may be having second thoughts about the practice. Backing all those candidates has done nothing to strengthen his political hand here or in DC and as the Platner debacle shows, it is fraught with political danger. 

But why the series of Heinrich missteps? Is this a mid-life crisis for the 54 year old who has been on the Hill since 2009, serving first in the US House and now the Senate? Talk to interested observers and they will say that Heinrich's heart is still with the idea of becoming Secretary of Interior, a post denied him when President Biden chose Deb Haaland. 

Despite his appointment to the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, Heinrich does seem adrift. If it's a midlife crisis perhaps the purchase of a sporty red corvette will resolve it and let him get back to his old self. 

THE FALL OF UBALLEZ 

Alex Uballez

It was a fast rise for Alex Uballez and an equally rapid fall. The former US attorney, a darling of progressives, made a splash in the '25 ABQ mayoral race but fell short in his effort to unseat Mayor Tim Keller. Now it appears any hopes he harbors for a comeback have been washed away in the DEA/fentanyl scandal.

The scandal has hit Uballez so hard that he has lost his voice. Well, figuratively. The camera hungry candidate is now refusing media interviews about the scandal in which the DEA and Uballez allowed a massive amount of fentanyl pills to remain on the streets of ABQ. They said they looked the other way as they tried to build evidence against major drug traffickers. The willful ignorance may have cost many lives through overdoses and has elicited outrage from the Governor, congressional delegation and families of those who have died from overdoses. Uballez, the state's chief federal prosecutor at the time of the DEA duplicity, defended their work and his in an initial statement: 

Uballez. . .said authorities at times allowed drug shipments to go unseized as part of a broader effort to gather intelligence and build cases against major drug traffickers. He said the approach reflected his office’s limited resources and his belief that prosecuting larger organizations can have a bigger impact than interdicting every suspected drug transaction. Last year, DEA recorded the largest fentanyl bust in its history in Albuquerque. “The bigger fish are worth catching,” Uballez said, “and that will save more lives.” 

That statement is the last the public heard from Uballez as friends and families marched in protest of the DEA actions. From KOB-TV:

The former U.S. Attorney of New Mexico, Alex Uballez has defended the agency’s broader focus on trafficking networks but questioned the numbers of pills in the whistleblower’s allegations. Uballez declined an interview with 4 Investigates. 

If Uballez can't bring himself to talk to the media, the scandal has been politically devastating and will  resurface anytime he runs for public office. The Keller crowd, while not celebrating Uballez' downfall, does remind us that Keller is now poised to seek an unprecedented fourth mayoral term and that the troubles of Uballez make a run more likely.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics

Labels: Bob Cornelius, Deb Haaland, Greg Hull

With Primary '26 in the books, we're taking a blogging break so posts will be occasional. To be notified via email whenever we add a post, subscribe to the blog by using the link on the right or at this link. Thanks for your continued interest. Now a final look at the election that was. . .

Now what? That's the question hanging over La Politica in the aftermath of a primary election that settled the battles for party nominations but left only scraps to pick over in the general election. 

That election looks to be one of the most noncompetitive in years with only a few exceptions.

The US Senate race features a Republican write-in candidate who scored enough votes Tuesday to get his name on the ballot. And that's where the movement stops. Sen. Ben Ray Lujan will not get a well-financed challenge and the race is over before it starts. Forward Party candidate Bob Perls is trying to make the ballot. The outcome will have little impact.

The race for the southern congressional district featuring Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez seeking a third term against Republican challenger and Trump-endorsed Greg Cunningham will flare up in the early going with the GOP testing to see if the race can be made competitive. Vasquez claimed a second term in '24 by10,000 votes. The race looks like his to lose. The seat is no longer ranked a toss-up but is "lean Dem."

The other other two congressional races are nonstarters. Reps. Stansbury and Leger Fernandez just have to keep breathing.   

The race for Governor. Republican Gregg Hull has precious little time to make the race with Deb Haaland competitive, meaning he has to raise vast amounts of money in the next couple of months. Winning the race is a long shot even with a well-run campaign. The bettors at Polymarket already have the odds at 87 percent that the Democrat will prevail. Besides money, Hull needs to have Haaland put her foot in her mouth and keep it there for a while. (If conservative Ken Miyagishima manages to make the ballot, it will only worsen Republican Guv prospects this fall.)

The races for Secretary of State, State Treasurer, State Auditor and Attorney General are noncompetitive. The Democrats stand to easily take them with campaigns that will barely register. 

The race for state land commissioner. This offers a ray of hope to the GOP with Michael Perry of Roswell carrying their banner but Juan Sanchez--aka--Juan De Jesus Sanchez III--is strengthened by his primary win, his ethnicity and the unpopularity of Trump. Perry has his hands full.

All 70 state House seats are on the ballot. The primary election took out incumbent Marian Matthews in ABQ but there is very little action to look forward to. "There are maybe two or three seats that will be up in the air," opines longtime Dem analyst Sisto Abeyta.  

Despite the lack of competition, for some reason when we do our November Election Night broadcast we think both sides will be able to talk for hours about why there is so little to talk about. (We're counting on that.) 

THE TURNOUT 

Primary turnout was solid and helped by the inclusion of independent voters who for the first time were allowed to vote in major party primaries. 

Unofficial results show 218,000 votes were cast in the Democratic governor primary. 

About 38,000 independents voted in the election, with the SOS reporting that 74 percent of them opted to vote in the Dem primary or about 28,000. Without the indys, Dem turnout for governor was about 190,000 compared to the 176,000 Dems who cast ballots in 2018, the last primary with no incumbent. 

GOP turnout hit 120,000, up from the 117,000 who cast ballots in in the '22 five way gubernatorial primary. The independents added 10,000 to the GOP total this year so more Republicans actually voted for governor in 2022 than 2026. 

(An earlier version incorrectly quoted the GOP numbers as being from 2018.)

Over 10 percent of the registered independents chose to take part in the primary. That was in line with analyst forecasts. The number is expected to grow in future cycles.

(We assumed for clarity that all the independents who voted made a choice in the governor’s race. But the reality is a small number did not vote in that race.)

MY BOTTOM LINES 

Joe Monahan (Bralley)

Take your pick. For the New Mexican the morning after the primary the headline was "Haaland vs. Hull. For the ABQ Journal it was "Hull vs. Haaland". .  .

Sorry, Sam, but you lost and it's time to pay the fiddler. A critic writes: 

What a joke of a campaign run by Bregman. 30 years of all hat, no cattle campaigns by Yosemite Sam. A .300 lifetime batting average might be good for baseball but it’s bad for politics. What A thorough stomping by Deb Haaland. (She won with 72 percent)

Several readers sent us a photo (unverified) that they said pictured Republican governor candidate Duke Rodriguez at the ABQ Sunport preparing to catch a flight to Phoenix the morning after the election. That is where he has a business, another home and where he has voted in recent elections. The Duke took a lot of heat for being a carpetbagger, so much that he came in third in the GOP Guv contest. All we can say is Vaya con Dios, Duke. It was fun while it lasted.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Labels: Deb Haaland, Gabe Vasquez, Greg Cunningham, Sen. Ben Ray Lujan

Our live, continuous Election Night coverage begins at 6:30 PM with complete results and in-depth analysis on KANW 89.1 FM and the live stream on KANW.COM. We look forward to having you with us as we continue this New Mexico public radio tradition.

The executive editor of the ABQ Journal is out. The paper reports Jay Newton-Small resigned from the state's largest newspaper on Monday, a day before today's primary election.

Newton-Small was hired in November 2024 so her tenure was short of two years. She was brought aboard when the previous editor resigned after being arrested on a shoplifting charge. Before signing with the Journal, Newton-Small, 50, was a correspondent for Bloomberg News and Time Magazine.   

The Journal announced that veteran journalist James Bennett, a former weekend/Senior Editor of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution who joined the Journal in April, has been promoted to "managing editor."

James Bennett

He may be the one to settle things down at Journal Center. The Atlanta paper has a strong legacy, winning 11 Pulitzers in its history and has had a string of storied editors.

The Georgia paper of record is in the middle of a major gamble. The AJC printed its final physical daily newspaper on Dec. 31, ending 157 years of ink-and-paper history. It is now a 100% digital-only publication. It makes observers here wonder if the all-digital route could be in store for the Journal as it wrestles with new media and financial challenges.  

Bennett’s title is noticeably less broader than Newton-Small's "executive editor/vice-president" title. 

That may signal a more robust role for executives of the ABQ Publishing Co. which own the paper. They have now seen their last two editors unable to follow in the leadership shoes of retired editor Kent Walz who steered the paper for decades. We'll see if they name someone as editor above Bennett or he eventually is named.

The Journal gave no reasons for Newton-Small leaving, only saying her departure would be "a loss" but a recent public outburst by the former editor may have played a part.  

Jay Newton-Small

It was just over two weeks ago that Newton-Small shocked the political community when she warned Democratic gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland that she would be investigated by the paper because of her refusal to appear at an ABQ Journal forum with Sam Bregman, her rival for the Democratic nomination (Video here.) 

Newton-Small called the rejection "scary" and added it was "terrifiying" that Haaland stayed away. Haaland did sit for a profile interview with the paper's Santa Fe reporter.  

The Haaland camp obviously will not be displeased with this turn of events. The prospect of having the newspaper conducting a vendetta against her should she win election was already putting a cloud over her possible administration. 

We broke the news of the change while anchoring our KANW radio Election Eve Special. Analyst Sisto Abyeta drew laughs when he quipped of the upheaval, "it makes you want the ABQ Tribune back!"

But everyone in the room said that they where rooting for the Journal to succeed because a strong daily newspaper is good for the state and city--and democracy.

The Journal is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year but with the editorial chaos it seems more like a wake. The new editor has his work cut out.  

 PRIMARY TURNOUT 

There's enough going on in the campaigns to prevent a big drop in turnout for today's election. Votes already cast in the Democratic primary put us on track to hit the 176,000 who voted in 2018 when there was also no incumbent running for the gubernatorial nomination. 

For the Republicans it appears they too will hit the number of their last non incumbent primary in 2022 when about 118,000 ballots were cast. 

The turnout is more of an issue in the GOP primary where three candidates are vying for the nomination while Deb Haaland is seen as having a commanding lead over Sam Bregman.

The four county ABQ metro area--BernCo, Sandoval, Valencia and Torrance--produced 47.6 percent of the early vote cast in the election. Other counties made up 52.3 percent. 

Former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull hopes that the above average turnout in the metro holds up through the voting today since he is is counting on winning the area. Doug Turner is leaning on the rural counties but needs to keep Hull's winning margin down in the ABQ area. A lower turnout is believed by GOP analysts to benefit him. 

Polymarket late Monday put Hull's chances at winning at 80 percent. In the Dem chase, 98 percent of bettors were predicting a Haaland victory.

The betting market does not judge the margin of a victory--only the victor--whether it be by 100 votes or 10,000.  

TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT

Joe Monahan '26

Join us tonight for continuous results, in-depth analysis, candidate reaction and much more on our traditional Election Night coverage starting at 6:30 on KANW 89.1 FM and  streamed at KANW.COM.

We say traditional because our Election Night broadcasts for public radio started in 1988. As we did then, tonight we have an all-star panel to break down the results and what they could mean for New Mexico's future.

ABQ Dem state Senator Moe Maestas has been a regular for years at the KANW Election Night round table. He loves politics almost as much as the Lobos. The District 26 first term senator served 16 years on the state House before moving to the upper chamber.  His involvement in campaigns goes back better than 30 years. Suffice it to say that no campaign movidas get past him--and none will tonight. 

Sen. Berghmans

ABQ Dem state Senator Heather Berghmans is a newcomer to elective office and a newcomer to public radio. She won her District 15 seat just two years ago but she is a veteran of the political battles. Berghmans previously served as a policy analyst at the Legislature and as a campaign finance consultant with the House Democratic Caucus. In the Senate she is the Vice-Chair of the Senate tax committee. With the way big money is coming into campaigns it takes a finance guru to figure it out, so we've got one. 

ABQ Dem state Rep. Joy Garratt is back on the air. The retired educator and representative from ABQ's westside District 29 since 2019, she is a retired teacher. She also has an unoffical Ph.D  in the ways of La Politica. She serves as vice-Chair of the House Education Committee and is a member of the powerful House Appropriations Committee. Her website is Joy for New Mexico." Who couldn't use some of that?  

Amy Sanchez is the political director of the Bernalillo County Republican Party who is a go-to advisor with a nose for news--of the political variety, of course. She is back ton KANW to carry the banner for the GOP which provided a fair share of the drama in this year's primary election. And drama is what Election Night is all about. 

Veteran Republican campaign consultant Bob Cornelius, a longtime public radio contributor, will phone it in this year. He just could not get away from his Austin outpost. He would have liked to but after all the internecine battles in the GOP, he may be safer delivering the news from across the border. 

Dem political consultant and lobbyist Sisto Abeyta, our lead analyst, is back and has ceded his blog bio space to the elected officials--just as a good lobbyist should. Just don't try to take his microphone away on Election Night. We won't.

Mountain West News Bureau journalist Jenny Kinsey returns to cover events from the field with live reports and news from various locations.We say various because if things get wild she may have to have an Uber on stand-by.

Kevin Otero is our longtime and patient producer and Michael Brasher is our gracefully aging general manager. 

Public radio KANW is celebrating 75 years on the air this year and we are proud to have been a part of so many of them. But there's nothing like the present--so set your alarm for 6:30. It's Election Night on KANW. See you soon. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Labels: Deb Haaland, KANW, Sam Bregman