Hull and Haaland

The first major public poll of the '26 gubernatorial chase seems to rule out a blow-out win by Democrat Deb Haaland but nudges only slightly, if at all, that big boulder that lies on the path to victory for Republican Gregg Hull. 

The ABQ Journal survey conducted August 21-28 among 516 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.3 percent shows Haaland with 49 percent Hull at 43 and 8 percent undecided. 

The poll was perceived as a blow to Haaland because expectations have been running higher than that 49 percent--whcih is one point shy of the magic 50 percent.  Her superior fund-raising, higher name ID and the Democratic lean of the state were the reasons. But the poll is in line with past ones that pointed to an eventual Democratic win. That includes 2018 when MLG was ahead of Republican Steve Pearce 50 to 43 in an early September survey, nearly identical to this year's first Journal poll. She won that race 57 to 43 percent.

In 2022 in the late August Journal survey MLG sported a 47 to 40 margin over Republican Mark Ronchetti in the late August Journal poll. She went on to win by 6.4 percent. 

The last time a Republican won the gubernatorial contest was in 2010 and everyone saw it coming as Diane Denish trailed Susana Martinez 45 to 39 in the Journal's late August survey and went on to beat Democrat Denish 53 to 47 percent. 

While Haaland clearly lost the expectations game and gave Hull something to shoot for, the national handicappers who rate the race "solid Democratic" are unlikely to change their ratings based on the survey. If they did, it could boost the cash coffers of the former three term Rio Rancho mayor.

The poll barely registered with the bettors placing cash wagers on the outcome. On Polymarket Sunday after the poll was released Haaland had a 93 percent chance of victory to Hull's six percent.

MONAHAN'S RULE 

In the ABQ metro Haaland is beating Hull 56 to 39 percent. The populous metro has been key to the Dems long string of statewide wins--no statewide executive office (Governor, land commissioner etc.) has gone to a Republican since Susana Martinez was re-elected in 2014. The R's last statewide win was in 2016 for a state supreme court seat. Until the key ABQ metro again becomes competitive the state will stay uncompetitive. 

Still, the poll could serve to dampen any smugness that the Haaland camp has over having to fight fiercely for the Fourth Floor--to use one of her favorite adjectives. A major mishap could still put the race in play as could a poorly run effort in the final eight weeks.  

Hull's campaign remains cash-starved. Big oil Republicans have essentially boycotted him, some of them apparently miffed that their favorite for the GOP nomination, Doug Turner, was turned away by primary voters in favor of Hull. We'll see if Hull's decent polling performance reverses their lack of enthusiasm.

Haaland with her national reputation has raised a staggering $14 million. It's a record amount and as we said another reason the poll did not meet those higher expectations. 

ROOTING FOR A RACE 

The managing editor of the Republican-leaning Journal took the unusual step of publishing a front-page commentary celebrating the relative closeness of the race in their poll saying, "so much for the coronation." But Brian Sanderoff, the paper's longtime and estimable pollster, did not appear convinced that there is now a true "horse race" as the headline over the editor's commentary claimed. He opined:

It’s narrower than many people expected, including me, Despite the fact the race is closer than expected, Gregg Hull still faces an uphill battle.

CANDIDATES REACT 

(click to enlarge)

Haaland's camp, which all summer has been trying to motivate donors by claiming she was six points behind in some polling, did not have anything to say about the Journal's survey that shows her actually six points ahead. She could, of course, use that characterization of the contest as a "horse race" to excite donors as well as Democratic voters she needs to go to the polls. 

For his part Hull did all he could to gin up enthusiasm over the narrower than expected lead Haaland commands, exclaiming that "they said it would be a blowout. It isn't." He also claimed he was now within "striking distance" of Haaland.

But Hull's pleas for money following the poll revealed that time is growing short to raise the millions he will need to compete in the final two months and this poll must mark a pivot from his dismal performance in that regard:

Eight percent of New Mexico voters have not made up their minds yet, and. . . my opponent will use her advantage to flood the airwaves from now until November 3. She will spend millions telling New Mexicans who I am before I get the chance to tell them myself. I am not going to let that happen. But I need to be on television, on the radio, and in mailboxes in every corner of this state at the same time she is, and that takes resources we have to raise right now. 

Haaland will definitely be on all forms of broadcast media and soon. And if there is only a minimal Hull presence she could quickly pull ahead in the polling to come.  

ANGLO ANGLE 

A Dem consultant pointed out that the poll shows Anglo voters favoring Hull 48 to 46 percent, helping to keep her lead over Hull in the mid-single digits. He theorized:

The Dems taking on a significant Socialist wing may be helping a Blue Dog mentality taking hold among some Anglo men in particular--and they have been early deciders for Hull. That got him quickly to that base conservative vote of 43 percent. These were votes against her not for him. He remains largely unknown.

WHAT HULL MUST DO

Republican analyst Jamie Estrada does some heavy lifting on exactly where the Republican nominee stands in the aftermath of the Journal survey. He begins with the last time a Republican was elected governor:

Eighteen months before the 2010 election the Republican primary candidates made their campaigns about tying Lt. Gov Diane Denish to Gov. Bill Richardson’s corruption. Over time they persuaded enough voters. Unfortunately for Republicans, MLG’s administration is not the same kind of target Richardson’s was. There are, however, examples of grave incompetence, especially CYFD, and during Deb Haaland’s term as Interior Secretary she raised real questions about her competence. Those concerns are showing up again in her interviews and candidate forums. Hull has not been making the case against the Democrats' incompetence or corruption. In fact, he has made it clear that he will not run a negative campaign. So, will this poll finally convince Republican donors to get off the sidelines? It's doubtful given his stubborn refusal to draw sharper contrasts. Being a statesman and aggressively pointing out Haaland’s weaknesses and terrible policies are not mutually exclusive. What’s worse is that Haaland might raise millions off this poll, arguing that she needs more money to get over the finish line. 

DEM GATOR TAKE 

A Senior Alligator of the Dem variety found the poll interesting but was nonplussed by the closer than expected margin: 

That poll seems reflective of a pretty low profile race--perhaps a bit of oversampling of independents and some big assumptions on name ID. Undecideds are low. I can’t believe that Gregg Hull is as well-known as this poll portrays. He has had zero media and few voters know that he was mayor of Rio Rancho. I think when Haaland gets on the air with a heavy presence, Democrats will come home and the anti-Trump energy will overwhelm Hull. But Sanderoff's poll pleases the Journal and their conservative readers. Maybe they believe the Democrats are lazy and will stay home. 

That Gator pointing out that Haaland has stayed dark on paid broadcast media over the summer is notable but underdog and under-financed Hull was also dark and unable to force her into the daylight. 

HIDING THE BALL 

Hide the ball continues to be Haaland's strategy and she is avoiding joint appearances with Hull. Will that change in light of her losing the polling expectations game? State Republicans are starting the drumbeat:

Some of the most influential organizations in our state have provided candidates an opportunity to answer questions and explain their vision. Gregg Hull has shown up. Deb Haaland has not. At the Association of Counties annual conference, Hull was there and Haaland was a no-show. At the Alliance of Health Councils forum, Hull showed up to discuss healthcare with community and tribal health leaders--Haaland did not. (Dem. Lt. Gov. candidate) Stephanie Garcia Richard appeared instead. Then, at last week’s Municipal League Annual Conference in Las Cruces, Hull again appeared  while Garcia Richard substituted for Haaland . . .Deb Haaland wants New Mexicans to elect her as our state’s next governor, but Stephanie Garcia Richard is becoming the one sent into the room to answer questions. The governor will be responsible for a multibillion-dollar state government. . .Gregg Hull isn't asking someone else to explain what he believes. He isn't avoiding organizations whose members may ask difficult questions. That should matter to New Mexico voters. 

The two candidates have made one joint appearance. That was at a meeting in mid-August of an ABQ business group. The newspaper described the session as "congenial" with neither candidate attacking the other. 

Only one TV debate is scheduled thus far. Haaland has agreed to face off with Hull on KOB in mid-October. Haaland rejected one proposed by KOAT and the Journal. 

Haaland, as the state GOP infers, is obviously trying to protect herself from committing a major gaffe by fumbling hard policy questions and giving Hull the opportunity to compare and contrast his views with hers. Pressure will and should grow on her to come out hiding if she is to avoid the nickname No Show Haaland. A wanna be Governor just like a sitting one needs to project confidence. Haaland needs to dig deeper and make that list of no shows much shorter. 

As for the polling the Journal will have another in October not far from the November 3 election which is rapidly coming into sight. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Labels: 2026 Journal poll, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, New Mexico governor.