The most threatening of those trends is the 87 percent support MLG is getting from Democrats. That is extremely high in a big tent party that is so often factionalized. Look back to 2010 when a late September poll showed Dem contender Diane Denish garnering only 68 percent and went on to lose to Susana Martinez. Obviously, Dems are united this year in their disdain for President Trump and weary of an 8 year Republican run under Governor Martinez. There may be plenty of disagreement among the D's on the issues but not on that.

It's been argued that through clever advertising the conservative Pearce has been successful in repositioning himself as a moderate and appealing to Dem voters. But Dem reader Barry Simon has been among those who have rejected that notion:

Like his president, I don't believe a thing Pearce says. His record tells me who he is, what he believes and what he stands for. I don't need TV ads to inform me of his record. I know his record. And the Democrats I talk to also know who he is. So I'd say stop wringing your hands over the lack of ads against Pearce. I assume the Democratic Party will finally get their act together and put them on the air. But even if they don't, we are onto Pearce.

With 87 percent of Dems rejecting Pearce, Simon's argument seems to be carrying the day. Pearce, as hard as he may try, can't convince the D's that he has shed his old skin and are also exceedingly aware of his friendliness toward Trump. That there is only a tiny slice of voters undecided--7 percent--only buttresses the argument.

There's really only one way for Pearce to get in the game and that's by making MLG unacceptable to some of those Dems and that means running a negative campaign which is filled with its own risks. Former ABQ city councilor, attorney and veteran campaign analyst Greg Payne, an R turned Democrat, shows where we go from here:

The good news for Michelle Lujan Grisham is that she's at the 50% mark and maintains her front-runner status with a little over seven weeks until Election Day. The bad news is that 50% in a Democratic state like New Mexico doesn't mean her election is a done deal. The margin of error in the Sanderoff poll is 3.1%. There's no question the Congresswoman would have preferred to be in the mid to high 50% range.

That's the good news for Steve Pearce. He's only behind by seven points, is winning Independents 55-37% and has over $600,000 more in his war chest than his opponent. The bad news is the Congressman is getting trounced in Albuquerque 53-41% and is only getting 8% of Democrats, even with the endorsement of former Dem Governor Jerry Apodaca.

The race definitely leans toward a victory by Lujan Grisham, barring any sort of debate or campaign gaffe. Pearce's path to victory, if there is one, is to get out the GOP vote in Republican strongholds and depress Democratic turnout--especially in Albuquerque. Which means what it usually does: Pearce has to go negative. But if he does it too late, as we saw in the Democratic primary, it could backfire and push Lujan Grisham into the Governor's Mansion not just with a win, but a mandate.

AND SO IT BEGINS

Pearce started that negative campaign Friday when he hit the airwaves with a spot that is a sore spot for MLG--her role in Delta Consulting. The Pearce ad unloads both barrels but it's not a clean shot. The ad and narration are high end but the script is cluttered, trying to tell too much of a complicated story in 30 seconds. That script:

Michelle Lujan Grisham--exposed by news reports for shady self-dealing--a pattern of corruption so deep, leading Democrats called Grisham's greed morally repugnant. 

Using her connections with the Richardson administration to land exclusive state insurance contracts, Grisham's Delta Consulting group raked in millions, overcharging vulnerable New Mexicans, fleecing poor patients with higher premiums. Now Grisham's top cronies caught red-handed trying to bury evidence. 

Dishonest and Dirty. Shamelessly corrupt. 

Pearce hopes Delta is the dynamite that blows open the race but consultants we spoke with say he will need more than one ad as well as some help from the free media to push the story. He also may need something new on Delta. This first outing repeats the charges heard in the June primary advertising which had no discernible impact on the results. Can he still make it stick?

Those of us in the media have already presented the story (as known so far) with Politico leading the way. Again, it appears it's going to take new angles to move the story back into the headlines.

The Pearce attack was predictable. In response the MLG camp, insiders report, had several ad possibilities ready to go. Hours after Pearce aired his hit, they came with this powerful testimonial ad from Diego Zamora, a Santa Fe pancreatic cancer patient who praised Delta for making sure he was able to acquire health insurance.

INSIDER DEMOS

Some polling cross tabs were not published by the Journal but we appreciate them giving them to us. MLG is winning women 52 to 42 and among men she is winning 49 to 44 over Pearce. In the Senate race Martin Heinrich wins women with 48 percent. Republican Mick Rich has 27 and Gary Johnson has 14. Among men, Heinrich wins 46% to Rich's 26 and Johnson's 19. We cover the Senate poll in more detail below.

WHAT WAR?

It was amusing to see the gubernatorial combatants at a Friday night NAACP forum. They bent over backwards to be civil to one another only hours after broadcast warfare had broken out. It reminded you of two generals atop opposing hills watching the field of battle through binoculars.

CHARACTER COUNTS

This campaign started with predictions that the Guv race would finally come down to a question of character. And so it has. A summer of playing nice guy "Uncle Steve" got him good reviews but he ended with 43 percent--which is where he basically began--and which is the base GOP and conservative vote in any statewide race. Now he must somehow force a major mistake from his rival and/or disclose previously unknown information about her that makes voters pause over their decision. If he can't, the road to the governorship will be closed.

FOLLOWING THE MONEY 

Analyst Payne noted that as of September 3 Pearce had a cash advantage over MLG of about $600k. However, the Journal survey showing her at 50 percent could keep third party money for Pearce firmly on the sidelines. MLG has already seen over $700,000 in TV time bought by liberal interest groups to keep Pearce in his place. Pearce has had no outside help from big conservative money--an important distinction.

A TAXING ISSUE

Pearce did himself a favor late Friday when he announced that he would finally release his tax return for 2017, but it won't be until mid-October because of incomplete info. Pearce said months ago that if MLG released her returns he would release his. She released five years of returns. Pearce is gong to release just one year. That led Dem Party Chair Marg Elliston to declare the Pearce's move was "too little, too late." But it will be enough to prevent any TV ad campaign on the issue from taking hold, as long as he comes with a complete return.

CONGRESS POLLS

Yvette Herrell

We're moving the battle for the southern congressional district seat to "Likely Republican" from "Lean Republican" based on the findings of the ABQ Journal poll. State Rep. Yvette Herrell leads Dem challenger Xochitl Torres Small by a margin of 48 to 41 percent. That's a healthy lead in the traditionally conservative district and while Torres Small has been touted as a fresh face who could pull off the upset, her initial round of advertising did not make a sufficient dent. While the Dem congressional committee in DC has put up some hit ads against Herrell, these poll results could lead them to pull out of the contest before long.

In ABQ, the Journal survey found Dem Deb Haaland with a commanding lead over Republican Janice Arnold-Jones in the race to succeed Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham who is running for Governor. Haaland scored 49 percent to 41 for Arnold-Jones and 3 percent for Libertarian Lloyd Princeton. The race is ranked "Safe Dem" and these numbers give no reason to change that rating. Haaland has not yet gone up on TV but still is only one point away from the critical 50 percent mark. The R's have not won this seat in a decade as the ABQ district gets more Blue so the numbers are not surprising. Haaland would be the first Native American woman to serve in the US House.

SENATE FIZZLE

When Gary Johnson got into the Senate race in mid-August the tongues of La Politica started to wag that the race could be enlivened/ But so far it has been a dud. Heinrich is the only one of the three contenders on TV and Libertarian nominee Johnson and Republican contender Mick Rich have been off the radar. The Journal's Senate survey had Heinrich at 47% in his bid for re-election. Rich came with 26 percent and Johnson lagged with 16 percent.

There's still plenty of time for Gary to liven up the proceedings but he just doesn't seem his old amusing self. The latest:

“Lexington later put it to Mr Johnson that he seemed to dislike campaigning. He nodded. ‘The bad part is you find yourself with people that have really bad breath,” he said. “What comes out of their mouth is just as bad. You cannot make heads or tails out of what the person talking to you is even saying.’”

Gary's fund-raising is coming nowhere near the millions that some of his optimists were predicting. In fact, he loaned himself $100,000 to get things going. Well, at least that's enough to buy breath mints that he can dole out to potential voters.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN