Monday, August 29, 2022Parsing The Polling: Bottom Drops Out On Ronchetti With Abortion Ruling Seen As Major Cause; He Plunges to 40 percent In Journal Survey; MLG Holds at 47; Expert Analysis Is Up Next Her 47 to 40 lead over Ronchetti had the state's majority party breathing a sign of relief and toning down their second guessing. Republicans have been pushing the narrative--somewhat successfully--that the race is a toss up and merits national attention. That narrative is now retired as the R's gasp for oxygen entering the final stretch, Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie scored 5 percent in the August 19-25 poll. That is expected to trend down as the election nears. Only 8 percent of voters were undecided in the survey that has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent. The race has been rated nationally as "lean Democratic." It stays that way but solidly so and with some analysts now tempted to tip it into the “likely Dem” category. The May SurveyUSA had the contest at 47 to 43 with MLG leading and no Libertarian candidate. This survey shows the bottom dropping out from under Ronchetti while MLG stays steady, but still chasing the key 50 percent mark. The poll could be enough to frighten potential donors away from the former TV weatherman with over two months to go before election day and a lot of expensive ground to cover. Veteran analyst Greg Payne says that's the main impact of the survey taken among 518 likely voters: The impact on Ronchetti's fund-raising is potentially devastating just when he needs it the most. He will now step up his attacks against MLG but she will have all the resources she needs and then some to counter them. It turns out he needed to come with stronger attacks against her and earlier. The poll will also have the Republican Governors Association assessing whether to continue ads for Ronchetti. They've had a heavy TV presence for him over the summer. BOTTOM DROPS OUT
The abortion ruling has seeped into all corners of the race. Even some Republican women are backing away from their party. Also, Ronchetti is not polling as strongly as he must with less educated voters who are mostly Trump supporters. He needs to go after them and the independents who remain undecided. Ronchetti has tried to finesse the abortion controversy by proposing a "reasonable" compromise where abortion would be legal for the first 15 weeks of pregnancy and allowed in cases of incest and to save the life of the mother. However, conservative ABQ Reverend Steve Smotherman knee-capped the candidate when he told his congregation that Ronchetti had told him privately that he is actually against all abortions. Campaign veteran David Alcon says: Her consistent lead is shown by all major polling. MLG’s attacks on Ronchetti’s abortion stance are paying dividends. She also is running ads that make her likeable. She needs to get to the 50+1 mark and is headed there earlier than we anticipated. The poll also reinforced New Mexico's status as a solidly blue state. Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, conducting these surveys since the 80's, commented: Sanderoff said the 7-point margin could also be due in part to a recent shift in the national mood – driven by a reduction in gas prices, approval of a federal climate change law and the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling – that has benefitted Democrats. The Ronchetti and MLG campaigns made no public comment about the poll that was released Sunday. SENIOR GATOR ANALYSIS  I think the poll is accurate and what’s expected. I can’t see Ronchetti winning unless there’s a major mood shift nationally or MLG has a scandal. If Bedonie was out it might be closer. MLG has to keep Dems motivated and she has to take a small percentage of undecideds. She has about the same numbers as most incumbent Democratic governors running for re-election. However, she should be doing a little better in such a blue state. That speaks to her inability to get popular beyond her base. It's now a two front war for Ronchetti. On one he fights MLG and on the other he fights the perception that the race is getting out of his reach. THE BOTTOM LINES Contact us at newsguy@yahoo.com to place your campaign advertising here. We welcome the opportunity to spread your message. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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