Hull & Haaland

There will be no early start for Gregg Hull. The '26 GOP gubernatorial nominee is stuck in neutral following the first month of the campaign, lacking the financial muscle to engage Democrat Deb Haaland whose well-oiled money machine has already churned out over $13 million with more to come. 

The latest campaign finance reports covering May 27 to June 27 show Hull did not get much of a bump from his June 2 primary victory over two primary opponents. He reports raising $349,000 for the month and cash on hand of $298,000 heading into the final four months before the Nov. 3 election. 

While Haaland hauls in millions, Hull has yet to hit the $1 million milestone with a total of $945,000 raised. 

In his post-primary report his lack of big money from big oil continued to stand out. That traditional funding source that backed away from Hull in the primary may have dried up even more after the head of the NM Oil and Gas Association warned that the race appears out of reach for the Republican. 

Hull's low fuel tank means no early TV or other high-profile messaging in the weeks ahead as he faces the arduous task of increasing Haaland's negatives. Meanwhile, if she chooses, Haaland could go up on the air later this month and stay there for the duration.  

Haaland reports raising another $1.1 million in the latest period with donations again coming from across the nation as she attempts to become the first Native American governor in state history and the first Native American woman governor in US history. 

She is spending the money almost as fast as she raises it, reporting a relatively modest cash on hand of $2.278 million from the over $13 million total raised. Still, that is nearly an 8 to 1 cash advantage over Hull and no problem raising more as Hull struggles to convince donors that he has a shot at victory. 

He does have a shot but at a very narrow target and the gun is not in his hands. Haaland will need unforced errors if the race is to become a race. Fortunately for the former Rio Rancho mayor, she has shown that she is capable of the major misstep. Her meandering testimony before congressional committees while serving as Secretary of Interior being one example. 

But Hull forcing her to slip will be like trying to open a tin can with his fingernails. Already her handlers are putting her in a protective cocoon by issuing statements in response to media inquires rather than conducting interviews.

LIGHT GUV ACTION

A surprise that caused the Haaland-Hull contest to get a second look would be unlikely but not unheard of. We just had a mild one when Maggie Toulouse Oliver, the winner of the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, said she would abandon her candidacy because of health reasons. 

The Democratic party's State Central Committee will meet July 25 to fill the vacancy. Haaland has tried to make their choice a fait accompli by endorsing Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard for the job. But the persistence of ABQ Dem state Senator Harold Pope in seeking the post after finishing second to Toulouse Oliver at the June primary is causing concern in the Haaland camp.  That Pope would be the first Black to be on a major party gubernatorial ticket makes the situation more sticky.

Garcia Richard--with Haaland's help--is expected to defeat Pope but if she did not the Haaland glass jaw would be exposed and perhaps cause prospective Hull donors to get off their depression meds and onto the campaign trail. 

POLLING  

There has been no early polling in the race but Polymarket bettors who nailed the outcome of the primary election now give Haaland an 86 percent chance of winning. 

The Cook Political Report in DC rates the race "likely Democrat" just below "solid Dem" which would signify a nearly sure thing. 

Republicans can usually count on 42-46 percent of the vote in a statewide election. The fear they have is that Haaland's money and presumed polling advantage could push her winning total past 60 percent, a feat last seen in 2006 when Gov. Richardson was re-elected with 69 percent support. 

The saving grace is that Hull comes from the vote-laden ABQ metro area, is reasonably articulate and won the primary with demonstrated appeal in rural areas as well as the cities. He should, with some money and messaging, tamp down the Haaland landslide narrative by Labor Day and then start that long hard, climb to break out of the usual GOP range.

CHECKING POWER

LFC Director Sallee

Should Haaland win she would be expected to expand the hold of progressives on state government as Republicans continue to struggle to be a factor. However conservatives and moderates could still have a powerful voice at the Roundhouse.

The authoritative Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) has been issuing some interesting reports that question the effectiveness of increased state spending in matters such as behavioral health. Under the leadership of LFC Director Charles Sallee the emphasis on accountability has become more pronounced and stands in contrast to an increasingly progressive legislature. 

The LFC was founded in the 50's as a counterweight to executive power and has been a major player since. By it's nature it has leaned conservative and has taken heat for it in recent years as the state  languished. Today the problem is not a lack of funds to stimulate the economy or pursue new programs, it is the immense amount of money flooding into Santa Fe that is overwhelming policy makers. 

The news that the state's sovereign fund is about to total a staggering $75 billion will surely reframe the discussion over the state's financial future--or should. There is obviously more room for risk-taking to resolve the social conditions crisis that haunts the state. That means the LFC must not be ideologically focused but instead insist on fulsome accountability as it did with the behavioral health study.  

Haaland would like to advance universal health care and affordable housing. Hull would like major tax reform. Both are sweeping and expensive platforms that have their merits and will be encouraged. But there is increasing apprehension that the once-in-history oil windfall could come and go with the state remaining a backwater economically and socially. That's where the LFC comes into play. Validating what works and what doesn't and doing it with urgency is the accountability that can keep the ball rolling in search of lasting solutions. They seem to be up for the challenge. 

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