Missy Currier

While prominent players in the state's prosperous oil and gas business involve themselves in the Republican gubernatorial primary, the leader of their top industry group is throwing in the towel, declaring that a Republican cannot win in November and that the focus should switch to defeating progressive Deb Haaland at next week's Democratic primary.

Missy Currier, president of the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association, did not openly endorse Haaland rival Sam Bregman but made clear in a speech at a North Dakota energy meeting that she believes he is the only hope of stopping her. 

Bregman has taken donations from oil and gas, generating heat from the progressive left. Haaland has not.

The financial importance of oil and gas to Republican political candidates and causes can't be overestimated which is why Currier's declaration that the fat lady has already sung on the Grand Old Party is a stunner. Here she is: 

Bregman

If you know anybody that can vote in New Mexico, please encourage them to get to the polls. I hate to be the bearer of potentially bad news, but we don’t think a Republican will be able to win in our current  political climate, especially in a Trump midterm. So, the primary is incredibly important to us. I would like to protest (Deb Haaland) being governor. . .I’m sure she has a good heart, but she does not have a heart for oil and gas. She is threatening over 100,000 direct and indirect jobs in the state, and knowing that she did not want drilling on public lands, she said in a recent interview that she would keep that same mentality when she came into office.

As Currier said the Democratic primary is indeed "incredibly important" with the winner highly likely to win the November election in a state that is a deep blue bastion for top of the ticket contests.   

Currier's warning of a Republican defeat stomped on the dreams of prominent oilmen and GOP heavyweights Harvey Yates, Jr. and Mark Murphy, who have been busy raising money for Republican Guv hopeful Doug Turner.

While Murphy and Yates are locals, the NMOGA is dominated by the largest oil companies on the planet, such as Occidental Petroleum. They are apparently not concerned about the optics of abandoning the Republicans and what they see as the party's hopeless cause and urging a last-ditch effort to take Haaland out. 

MIXED MESSAGING 

Haaland is a former Sec. of Interior under President Biden who crafted energy compromises that drew the ire of progressives but that Haaland's department ultimately enforced. In this campaign she has sent mixed messages to oil and gas and Currier is assuming the worst. 

One key issue is fracking, the sometimes controversial process that is deployed to extract oil in the state's SE Permian basin. As a congresswoman Haaland supported a ban on fracking. However, today she seems to have settled on heavy regulation as a solution--not an outright ban. She reacted to Currier's alarm over her candidacy, saying: 

As Secretary of the Interior, the U.S. saw the largest production of oil and gas in its history and simultaneously the largest investment in renewable energy. I have done so while protecting sacred sites and consolidating drilling areas so Americans can continue to enjoy those public lands. I understand that oil and gas is a significant driver of revenue and jobs and have said as much. If elected governor, oil and gas will be responsible for cleaning up after themselves and will be good community partners. Protecting our air, land and water does not come at the expense of good paying jobs--we can create more jobs, grow our energy economy and fund our state’s budget. 

While not as radical as a fracking ban, the threat of heavy regulation is still problematic to the bottom lines of the oil majors. They did not face such concerns with two-term Democratic Governor MLG who pushed back against progressive threats to the industry and carved a middle of the road regulatory path. 

Finding the proper regulatory balance has become even more critical as historic amounts of money flow into state coffers from oil and gas exploration from a years-long oil boom that shows few signs of easing. On the contrary, the recent spike in world oil prices will generate even more riches for the state. 

The oil boys are not going to have the door slammed in their faces should Haaland take power. There is a state legislature watching whose leaders are keenly aware of the vital financial role the industry plays. The billions being generated by oil and gas are essential to the welfare state that the political establishment here has made foundational. A massive number of citizens receive Medicaid, food stamps, universal early child care, free college tuition and more.

No matter who is elected the next governor the state cannot and will not let their golden goose come in harm's way. 

WATCHING AND WAITING  

Gregg Hull is not calling his Election Night party a victory party  but the former three term mayor of Rio Rancho remains the front-runner for the GOP nomination because of a solid metro area base, even as he grapples with an under-financed campaign. His closest rival is Doug Turner with Duke Rodriguez hoping for a final days comeback.

Hull won the March GOP preprimary convention and has been ahead in the two independent media polls. A poll released over the weekend and sponsored by 2022 GOP governor nominee Mark Ronchetti's podcast shows Hull again leading the field although the race is closer. Hull drew 33 percent, Turner 30, Rodriguez 12 and 25 percent were still undecided.

Hull celebrated his third in a row polling leading in a fund-raising missive but cautioned that he will be attacked in the final stretch: 

Gregg is at 33%, leading the field. That's not an accident. It's what happens when a candidate has a real record to run on. . .But a lead only matters if we protect it. . .The other campaigns know the clock is ticking, and they're going to throw everything they have at us. We need to answer with a strong finish. We need you to vote and we need you to donate. 

Turner said on the socials: 

We have the momentum and are winning this race!!

How much Hull leads by is subject to speculation but hard cash bettors at Polymarket are not yet wavering. Late Monday Hull was being given a 88 percent chance of winning the nomination. He surged from 79 percent in the hours following release of the podcast poll.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.