If they're going to move the New Mexico presidential primary to February 15, 2008 instead of holding it late in the nominating cycle in June, how about a favorite son candidate (or is it favorite daughter now)? 

As the fourth state to go up to bat under a Democratic National Committee recommendation, a local yokel would have a shot at first place but could spoil the party for the national heavyweights who will be trekking here if the calendar is finalized by the DNC next month. 

The starting states would be: South Carolina, January 22, 2028; Nevada, February 1, 2028; New Hampshire, February 8, 2028; New Mexico, February 15, 2028; Michigan, February 22, 2028; Virginia, February 29, 2028

How about Deb Haaland for president? We know. Say it ain't so, Joe! We would if every sitting governor since Gary Johnson in the 90's hadn't toyed with the national spotlight. Dem Bill Richardson ran a serious campaign for the nation's top job and Johnson secured the Libertarian Party presidential nomination in 2016.  

How about MLG? She's been pushing the hardest for the earlier primary, citing our status as majority-minority border state with Hispanics and Native Americans dominating. The Governor's national star was tarnished when President Biden quietly rejected her for a cabinet post but if in '28 the then former governor is looking for work, what's to stop her?

Haaland still has an election to deal with in the here and now before she gets starry-eyed over her national prospects, if she does at all. But her path to the governor's office is looking like a well-lighted stroll under a full moon. With less than 100 days to go Polymarket bettors give her an 89 percent chance of victory. Noted political predictor Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball has joined the pundits at DC's Cook Political report in ranking her race against Republican Gregg Hull "safe Democratic." 

That's as good as it gets and unless Hull can shake her loose by forcing a major mistake, she is going to keep smiling and hawking salsa on the socials before getting overly serious about policy. Certainly the political consultants are not going to let her stray. After raising $14 million her campaign has plenty of them who remind her each day to look busy but say little. 

'08 AND '28

An early Dem presidential primary was actually conducted here in February 2008 when Hillary Clinton enjoyed a very narrow win over Barack Obama. (We filed this report in the wee morning hours before Hillary put it away a day later.)

The primary was novel but not without problems. The state Dem Party decided to provide only one polling place for the entire city of Rio Rancho. Voters stood in line for a long wait scowling and taking the name of Dem Party Chair Brian Colon in vain in a variety of ways--most of them starting with the letter "F."

Dem Sen. Mark Kelly is thinking about running for president in '28. He's from just across the way in Arizona so we would put him up near the top of the list of possible candidates who would benefit from an early NM primary. But he full field has yet to form and the only certainties for an early primary are that every candidate will visit Barelas Coffee House for the mandatory enchilada lunch (posole if they insist) and the TV ads will be ubiquitous.

THE CBS SHOCKER

Speaking of campaign TV ads, in the future KRQE-TV may be selling fewer of them and cheaper. 

That's just one of the possible impacts on the station after dropping their affiliation with the CBS Network, one that it had since 1953 and that will now go to Hearst-owned ABC affiliate KOAT.

KRQE owner Nexstar did not want to pay the CBS asking price to keep the affiliation. KOAT channel 7 grabbed the opportunity and starting in August will broadcast CBS programming on a digital channel easily accessible over the air, on cable and satellite. (Other CBS affiliates were also dropped by Nexstar.)

The seismic shift will see the FOX Network, already affiliated with Nexstar and KRQE, replace CBS programming along with an increased local news presence. (Station announcement here.)

The problem is FOX lacks the star and ratings power of CBS which could mean lower ratings for primetime and local news. That in turn could mean a loss in revenue leading to layoffs and other cutbacks in the months ahead. 

While KRQE gets weekly Sunday NFL games from Fox, the most valuable piece of real estate in broadcast TV, the CBS NFL schedule now moves to KOAT, ramping up their advertising power and putting the station in rotation for the highly popular Super Bowl. 

CBS is also home to the NCAA college basketball tournament, Masters golf, the highly-rated 60 minutes, the CBS Evening News and CBS Morning News. All of that plus the CBS primetime entertainment line-up--the most highly rated among the broadcast networks--will now be at KOAT. Political and other advertising will flow to those marquee programs at the expense of KRQE. That could easily make the dual-affiliated KOAT the state's dominant and most profitable station in the state.

As for KRQE's touted news expansion to fill the crater in their schedule, unless the station is going to spend much more on news, they could dilute the product and earn only anemic ratings while suffering dramatic ad losses because of the CBS departure.

THE KOAT ADVANTAGE 

Meantime KOAT can simply simulcast its 10 p.m. and other news broadcasts on their CBS channel with no extra expense and take advantage of popular CBS lead-in programs as KRQE currently does and which has helped make them first in the local news ratings. If played right, KOAT could easily become the new leader.

While broadcast TV has been in decline with half the audience streaming programming and not relying on traditional TV, the business is still highly profitable. For example, political ads are mostly aimed at voting audiences over 50 and that remains the demographic most loyal to broadcast television.

New Mexico's contests for governor and the 2nd Congressional District are going to attract millions of dollars of ads in the coming weeks. KRQE's CBS loss could be felt in the ratings by the time Labor Day arrives.  

For now KRQE will work to stop the bleeding and avoid a doom spiral where lower ratings lead to fewer ads, less revenue and a significant cutback in their news department. They will also have to deal with employees now eying KOAT as a port in the storm as the winds of change upend the local TV landscape. 

ELECTRIC SOCIALISM

The ABQ chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) endorsed Sen. Harold Pope for Lt. Governor. In a related matter, we get this:

Joe, I read your comments referring to Senator Pope’s proposal for NM to purchase PNM as “socialism.” There are plenty of governments including Farmington, New Mexico that own their own utilities. And many big cities including Austin, San Antonio and Omaha. Public ownership incentivizes a utility to invest in conservation rather than expansion of utility infrastructure, precisely to contain consumer rates. Farmington’s utility offers electricity rates that are historically 20% to 31% lower than the national average and neighboring utility cooperatives. It’s a proven model that frankly we should be moving towards as a state, rather than the monopoly investor owned electric utility model. In my community El Paso Electric is seeking a 50 rate increase! 

Good points but taking over a small electric company in Farmington does not compare with the government of New Mexico buying the state's largest utility and running its day-to-day affairs. One can only hope if it ever happened the management at CYFD would be prohibited from taking part. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics

Labels: CBS, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, KOAT, KRQE, Larry Sabato, MLG, Nexstar