Let’s catch up on more of that very early polling of the statewide races from the ABQ Journal and look for clues for the election outcome as well as future state policy.
Most obviously, the race for the Democratic lieutenant governor nomination has essentially become non-competitive.
Featuring outgoing Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver and ABQ state Senator Harold Pope, the well-known Toulouse Oliver, a former Bernalillo County Clerk, out polled Pope by a wide 54 to 10 with 36 percent undecided.
The race will be much closer than that but with her being over 50 percent and with Pope not having resources to launch a significant media buy, it appears MTO will be the Lieutenant Governor nominee for the state's majority party. She will likely be teamed with Deb Haaland, who continues to hold a large lead over Sam Bregman. Together they would comprise the first female major party ticket in state history.
Late Wednesday Pope announced he is airing two 15 second TV spots statewide. The campaign did not say how much was spent on the buy.
The Lieutenant Governor position is a resurrection of Toulouse Oliver's often thwarted higher political hopes. But should she and Haaland win election in November, it is highly uncertain whether she would be dealt in on the action. Most of the time talk of doing so fizzles.
What to watch on the campaign trail is the developing post-primary political relationship between the pair. MTO has policy chops and Haaland has political skills. So the #1 might not see the #2 as a threat and thus not as reluctant to bring her into the fold. But the history of the state's second bananas is not encouraging.
LAND OFFICE SCRAMBLE
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| Sanchez, McQueen and Moya |
The former political aide to Sen. Heinrich scored 21% with Santa Fe area state Rep. Matthew McQueen and rancher and onetime federal AG employee Jonas Moya each getting 11 percent.
A massive 57 percent of likely Dem primary voters were undecided. That shows how none of the hopefuls have statewide ID and also emphasizes that this April 17-24 poll is very early indeed. (And there won't be another.)
McQueen bests Sanchez in the résumé area with a bevy of degrees and lengthy experience as an attorney dealing with land issues. He also was the author of a bill that raised the royalty rate on state lands for oil companies from 20% to 25%--a significant accomplishment. Sanchez notes that his family has ranching ties and that he had a role with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as a Natural Resource Specialist.
The race to succeed term-limited Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard will break down in part on ethnic lines. With no big TV buys expected, many voters can be expected to vote the last name when they cast ballots.
Sanchez and Moya could split enough of the vote for McQueen to win, but Moya has hardly any money so he may not be the hindrance Sanchez fears. If none of the candidates gets on TV, we could have a very tight race Election Night.
None of the Dem candidates and unopposed Republican Michael Perry of Roswell should have a problem running the often complicated office, if elected. None of them are duds and the land office has a strong permanent staff. That's good because the office continues to collect billions in revenue from the state's biggest and perhaps longest oil boom.
BREGMAN-HAALAND TONIGHT
That joint appearance taped Saturday evening between Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman will be broadcast tonight on PBS station KNME at 7 pm. (Channel 5.) We posted an incorrect time yesterday. The candidate exchange sponsored by the progressive groups Dukes Up will also be streamed via the PBS app and the NMPBS YouTube channel.
CAPTIONING MLB
Bill Tallman