It is being duly noted that Heinrich, who would be seeking a third six year term next year, has yet to make an official announcement that he is running again.
It is not exceptionally late for such an announcement but neither is it early. He announced in March of 2017 that he would seek a second term in 2018.
Join Senator Martin Heinrich For a Lunch Reception To kick off his re-election campaign With Special Guest Senator Cory Booker Saturday, March 4, 2017 6:30 to – 8 pm at The Home of Greg Levenson.
The only published comment on the '24 election from the state's senior senator came last October and it had wiggle room. He said "he's putting all the pieces together" for another run.
Since then Heinrich has made no secret of his gubernatorial ambitions with his eyes planted on November 2026 as well as Nov. '24 when his senate seat is on the ballot.
Heinrich is okay financially to make a senate run. At the end of '22 he reported $1.138 million in campaign cash on hand.
So why would Heinrich not run for his seat again? Because if he is re-elected in 2024 it would be only a few months before he would have to announce for the '26 Guv race. Also, his Guv ambitions would be a major negative campaign theme for his opposition in a senate re-election bid.
And there is the not so little matter of what is good for the state. Would it be ethically correct for Heinrich to win a new six year term and then turn around only weeks later and essentially abandon his senate duties to run for Governor? (Not that such considerations stop ambitious politicos.)
One of the Gators dismissed that concern:
First, I see him running for re-election. Second, while running for senate he can simply say he will continue to fight for New Mexico no matter what capacity he is serving in now or the future.
There's also the money angle weighing in favor of Heinrich making a re-election bid. Money raised for a federal campaign can be shifted to a state campaign. If he quits running for senate, he could find the money trail going dry.
Okay, enough of the spoilers. Back to the fun stuff. . .
IN THE WINGS
Our senior Alligators are unanimous that Heinrich would be the underdog against Haaland for the Democratic Guv nomination. They cite her status as the first Native American who would be elected Govenror, her formidable fundraising abilities and the demographics of the state party as all reasons Heinrich would face an uphill climb--if she should decide to run.
Haaland's 2026 intentions probably won't be known until after or near the presidential election but if Heinrich, 51, is truly serious about taking over the Guv's chair he may want to assume the worst--that she will run and that he needs to get an early start on that campaign and nix his plans for another senate term.
Heinrich faced a similar situation in the past. In 2007 he decided against running for re-election to his ABQ city council seat, saying he wanted to concentrate on his 2008 bid for the ABQ congressional seat which the went on to win.
When he opted out of the council Heinrich threw his support to fellow SE Heights Democrat Rey Garduno who was successful in taking the council position.
What if Heinrich decides not to run this time? Would he back another Dem to be his replacement? Some observers think signs point to him possibly supporting Attorney General Raul Torrez for the June 2024 primary that would result if Heinrich bows out.
Not that a Heinrich endorsement would guarantee a Torrez win. Hardly. This is a US Senate seat--not a city council seat.
If Heinrich were to win the Guv race while a senator, the remainder of his senate term would be filled by gubernatorial appointment. If he lost the race he would serve uninterrupted through 2030.
So stay tuned to the Heinrich drama. We're certainly not saying the odds favor him not seeking re-election but it's our divine calling to cover all the angles.
The matter could end in just days with a routine Heinrich re-election statement or it could be a more wild and unexpected ride than La Politica had been assuming.
Of course, the Alligators always support a wild and unexpected outcome, don't they?
This is the home of New Mexico politics.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023