Herrell Returns; What Did She Learn From Her '22 Loss? Southern Congress Rematch With Vasquez In Newly Crafted District Remains Tricky GOP Territory

McCarthy and Herrell

What did former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell learn from her 2022 defeat by Democrat Gabe Vasquez that cost her a seat in the US Congress? 

Not enough Republicans voted. 

That was her message as she made the unsurprising but official announcement Monday that she will seek to get the seat back from Vasquez in 2024. 

While Herrell's announcement was expected the reasons she sees for her '22 loss were more anticipated. Was it poor GOP turnout or was it her association with Trump and her hard-right positions on abortion and other social issues?

Her unambiguous answer came in two quotes aimed directly at the conservative SE base of the district, also known as Little Texas. She said:

We've got to get God back in the conversation. . . America needs us to stand up, stand strong and be courageous. This is our Nehemiah moment. 

For those not steeped in the Bible here is the Nehemiah link.

For good measure, Herrell also attacked Vasquez for his pro-choice position on abortion, offering no softening on an issue that has become very costly to the GOP in swing areas. 

If the turnout theme needed to be hit harder, GOP state Sen. Crystal Diamond did the honors:

Democrats didn’t win that (2022) election, Republicans lost that election. They’re not going to outwork us.

To further rouse the Republicans US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who attended the Herrell announcement made at the NM Farm and Ranch Heritage Museum in Las Cruces, offered words of praise for Donald Trump, saying he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize. 

Over the top? For BernCo and Cruces for sure, but not for Lea and Otero.

BY THE NUMBERS

Rep. Vasquez

The fiery statements from Herrell and McCarthy are red meat for the conservative base but there was nothing much for more moderate Bernalillo County where she lost by over 9,000 votes to Vasquez--32,248 or 59 percent to 19,986 or 41 percent.

The overall vote in the district was 96,986 for Vasquez and 95,636 for a total turnout of 192,622. That BernCo turnout represents 27 percent of the votes cast. 

Then there is Dem leaning Dona Ana which includes Las Cruces. Vasquez carried it 56 to 44 percent, winning by 7,305 votes out of 57,191 cast. 

That represents nearly 30 percent of the total district vote, giving the two big Dem leaning areas of the district a clear majority of 57 percent. 

Vasquez won the race by only 1,350 votes. The GOP and Herrell must be thinking he won't improve upon his urban performance despite '24 being a higher turnout presidential election year and where antipathy toward Trump remains strong and abortion continues to be a motivator for voting.

Maybe many R's know that it's time for their party to start moving more toward the center in the newly crafted district but they can't because of the stranglehold Trump and the social conservatives have on the minority party. 

If it was only a matter of increased GOP turnout in the district, Herrell's climb would not be as steep. But the Dems will also be lighting a fire under their base which, of course, is larger. 

Vasquez sees it that way. Upon Herrell's entry into the race his campaign welcomed her to the rematch with this:

While Yvette Herrell’s crusade to ban abortion is impressive, Congressman Vasquez is focused on getting things done for the people of Southern New Mexico.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023