The initial urgency for Scranton Joe's NM sojourn was to prop up MLG but with the Governor's race looking better if still not closed out, the visit morphed into Operative Save Gabe who is trying to unseat GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell in what polling says is a tight race indeed. To do that he needs to pad his count with votes from a swath of the the South Valley and ABQ's westside that are now part of the newly configured Second District. And the presidential imprimatur will help MLG if she encounters more resistance than expected.
(Doors open for the rally at 12:45 p.m. Sign up here.)
Veteran Dem political consultant Sisto Abeyta, a Valley rat if there ever was one, games out the big event:
Vasquez needs this visit. His campaign has not fully taken hold in the South Valley because he is not known there and has not had enough local leaders validating his candidacy. That all changes today with the validator in chief giving his blessing and urging a vote for him. As long as they stay away from hot button topics like immigration and stick with education and the economy, the message should resonate with the Hispanic community and stimulate the vote.
The President lavishing attention on Hispanic voters in a working class area will be welcome by Democrats fretting that the party has ignored them while fawning over the professional class.
Abetya noted that MLG is polling 65 percent among Hispanic women in the Governor's race and that:
Democrats now need to translate that support into actual votes for MLG and Vazquez. A presidential visit is a tried and true way of getting folks to the polls and Biden's working class roots are a plus. Hispanic men are especially looking for an economic message.
It won't all be about working class Joes at the rally. Those interested can take a picture with Biden for a mere $2,900 a pop, although we expect there will be a number of freebies for the common folk.
BEFORE THE RALLY
Before the afternoon Rally in the Valley, Biden will join MLG, ABQ Rep. Melanie Stansbury and Dems for a discussion of affordable education at CNM, the community college in the SE Heights that will give the Prez another venue to advocate for middle class voters pursuing vocational professions.
That will be MLG's time in the sun, as her free college tuition plan approved by the legislature is now boosting enrollment at CNM and higher ed statewide.
On politics the President could provide incentive for Dems to vote by pointing to that unexpected endorsement of GOP Guv candidate Mark Ronchetti by former President Trump early Halloween morning.
That endorsement reinforced Dem attacks that the GOP nominee has been in the Trump corner all along, despite his protestations. That's a prime opportunity for Biden to give his national rival a zing and score with the locals.
And why not? Dems are accusing Ronchetti of going low by putting out a dispatch saying that Biden "disrespected" New Mexico when he told reporters recently that his campaign visits will include "Mexico," instead of New Mexico. But the audio of Biden appears to have him saying "New Mexico," if not distinctly, clear enough to be heard to our ears and those of others we ran it by.
The Biden diss was a reach by Ronchetti but he's off in the rural hinterlands this week while the Dems are staging a takeover in the state's largest city with the President leading the way. It has to be frustrating. Biden's approval rating statewide is about 45 percent but higher in the key Dem voting cities of ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces.
WHY NOT YVETTE?
That endorsement of Ronchetti by Trump raised the question of why the ex-Prez did not endorse Rep. Herrell. After all she has been one of his chief allies and is taking plenty of televised campaign heat for it. The answer may be this:
Herrell does not want or need an official Trump endorsement. A third of the vote in her new district is expected to come from the South Valley and Westside of ABQ which is not Trump country. An endorsement would hurt there.
That brings us back to the Trump backing of Ronchetti discussed here Wednesday. If an endorsement would also hurt Ronchetti in ABQ, then why do it? Would an increase in Trump voters from the endorsement outweigh the negative impact in the cities? No. So, we're sticking to his reasons as revenge and political positioning.
The revenge is against Ronchetti and his mentor former GOP Gov. Susana Martinez and the consultant for both of them, Jay McCleskey. All of them are on Trump's blacklist for publicly opposing him in the past.
Trump is likely to run for president in 2024. Does he want a Republican anti-Trump Governor sitting in Santa Fe, one who would probably support Ron DeSantis or another Republican in a nomination battle with Trump? Or would he be better off with the status quo?
Or all this is BS and Trump and Ronchetti have cut a deal, with the belief that if the endorsement were handled correctly it would pop the rural Trump vote without causing problems elsewhere. Whatever.
But congrats on your Trump endorsement, Mark. . . or something.
We'll update the blog later today with a report and analysis of President Biden's ABQ visit.
THE RUN IS OVER
The longest-serving mayor in the history of Las Cruces will end his historic tenure in 2023.
Ken Miyagishima, 59, announced he would not seek reelection next year. In the 2019 mayoral election, Miyagishima faced nine challengers. It was the first Las Cruces municipal election after the city's implementation of ranked-choice voting.
"I want to thank the many residents whom I have had the pleasure to meet and work with as mayor, city councilor or county commissioner over the past 30 years," Miyagishima said. "I think it's time to let someone else have an opportunity to be mayor of this great city. I announced my intentions early to allow those interested in running for this position ample time to prepare for the 2023 municipal elections."
Miyagishima has broken with progressive Democrats in recent years and he could have faced a stiff re-election. But Miyagishima has nothing left to prove.
ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE
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| Rep. Hochman-Vigil |
ABQ Dem state Rep. Day Hochman Vigil will join us with House races set to generate lots of news as battles rage across the state. Day says there's not much "daylight" between the candidates in the hot ones and she's on the lookout for late trends that could impact future state policy and politics.
Hochman-Vigil, a Santa Fe native and UNM School of Law grad, was first elected to District 15, which includes the North Valley, in 2018. She is a member of the House Appropriations Committee as well as the Agriculture Committee.
The Rep is also an expert in aviation law. We're sure she'll be a sound pilot in bringing Campaign '22 in for a safe but exciting landing. So be sure to join us for all the traditions and chaos of a New Mexican Election Night on Tuesday, November 8 starting at 6:30 p.m.
We'll run down more of our planned coverage next week.
Thanks for stopping by this week. We'll pick it up Monday or before if any major election happenings break.
Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.
This is the home of New Mexico Politics.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022