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| Reba the Dog (Star of Herrell ads) |
As usual polls of the sprawling 2nd District that now includes a swath of westside ABQ and the South Valley are seemingly inscrutable. A late series of surveys raises more questions than they answer. First Vasquez is up one point, then he's up two and then suddenly Herrell's up ten points.
No wonder political consultants drink a lot.
Even the dean of the pollsters, Brian Sanderoff, is warning of cracked glass for anyone using a crystal ball to call this one. His October 20-27 survey had Vasquez leading by 47-45 but it came with a qualifier that had to have the candidates getting seasick:
Sanderoff said that although Vasquez is polling in the lead, Herrell has traditionally outperformed polling data and has traditionally favored well with independent voters. “I have no problem in saying that Yvette Herrell has tended to over-perform in both local and national polls,” he said.
He should know. In an event as rare as a Lobo football win, Sanderoff had a miss in the southern district in 2018 when he had it 46 to 45 for Herrell over Dem Xochitl Torres Small. Herrell lost 50.9 to 49.1.
In 2020 in the final ABQ Journal poll in the Torres Small-Herrell rematch, Herrell polled 48% and Torres Small 46, but Herrell went on to win with 54 percent of the vote.
Sanderoff is almost always in the neighborhood of the final score and most pros are forecasting if not a squeaker, a tight finish because of the new Democratic power in the district. On the other hand if those pros were betting in Vegas they would place an even money bet on Herrell.
That Emerson College poll that had Herrell walloping Vasquez by ten point—54 to 44--appeared to be the result of over polling Republicans. Emerson had the Governor's race 49-47 for MLG, a two point spread that popped Republican Ronchetti six points from where he finished in the Journal--50-42. And the polls were done in similar time periods.
Then there's the NYT/Sienna poll done earlier than the other two--Oct. 20-24--and that gave Vasquez a one point edge--48 to 47. But those close numbers for Vasquez prompt analysts to argue that even if that's right, Vasquez is still not ahead enough to counter the history that they see coming
As Sanderoff readily admits, this district is hard to poll--like nailing jello to the wall. The margin of error in his survey is nearly 5 percent.
And there is a hidden vote, usually conservative, that acts like an owl. It only comes out at night--Election Night.
ALL ABOUT GOVERNOR
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| Ronchetti on the road |
Democrats we've asked are frustrated with MLG's effort. They point out she has had up to four campaign managers, her team failed to put away Ronchetti over the summer during his abortion mishap; they dropped the ball in responding to his vociferous crime attacks and never came with ironclad messaging on just why she should be re-elected.
Early voting numbers remain ambiguous when it comes to forecasting what the final turnout will be. In the case of MLG, that has her pressing the panic button and calling in Scranton Joe Thursday to boost the ballot count. That's in a state that has been acting deep blue and should be flyover territory for the Prez.
But there is not only MLG to consider. The 2024 White House race will begin right after the mid-terms (Lord, help us) and the last thing the Dems need is New Mexico's five electoral votes resting in the uncertain column--and they could go there if the governorship is lost to the GOP.
THE UNRAVELING
Fortunately for Team MLG, Ronchetti is unraveling in the final days. The endorsement of his candidacy by Trump is a disaster awaiting to happen in Blue BernCo and the North. Then there is the unexpected reappearance of ABQ Pastor Steve Smothermon who again shout outs that Ronchetti is not telling the truth about his meeting with him on abortion.
Both of these jolts are dealbreakers. Trump breaks bad with most of the undecided and motivates lazy Dems to get off their Lazy Boys. Smotherman pinches the weatherman on the right cheek, signaling to abortion conservatives that it's okay for them to stay home on election day.
While his candidacy lies bleeding in the big city Ronchetti is nowhere near the scene of the accident. Instead they have him on a 33 county tour, mostly in rural hideaways, as he tries to spark GOP turnout.
When Republican Guv nominee Joe Skeen of Picacho went south and stayed there in the final days of one of his two races for Governor (either '74 or '78) I asked him why. He got miffed and told me the newspaper columnist who said it was a mistake had it wrong. Maybe we're mistaken about Ronchetti some 45 years later, but we note there never was a Governor Skeen.
Ronchetti's wife took to the socials to urge his supporters to "Vote people. Don't wait." She might add, "Come home, Mark. The votes are here not there."
They better hope Republicans are waiting to vote and not on strike. But with their top leaders embracing conspiracy theories and telling them to not vote early and wait until election day, the tension of what will finally happen is enough to make Ronchetti chug Pepto Bismal while he's down there skipping rocks at Elephant Butte.
THE DYNAMIC DUO
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| Pastor Smothermon |
Ditto for Legacy Church Pastor Smothermon who is enraged over the game playing that Martinez and McCleskey enjoyed at his expense over abortion when they had power. If nothing, he's a true believer and one with a congregation of thousands that has his back. When he unloaded again recently on Ronchetti over abortion this week it was like, "Sorry Mark, but the truth will set you free."
If MLG can't walk down the wide path that the dynamic duo of Smothermon and Trump paved for her, those colorful cowboy boots she sports are as worthless as flip flops in a snowstorm.
The bottom line for the Alligators of La Politica? They'll line up bets with GOP true believers, take MLG and give them two or three points for taking Ronchetti. Later they'll collect their winnings and go fatten up for the winter. Nice work if you can get it. . .
MAGGIE AND AUDREY
Where you been, Maggie? Asked the Dems of Sec. of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver a month or so ago when her polling was well below 50 percent even though she has served as secretary of state since 2016 and BernCo Co clerk for over nine years before that. Well, wherever she was she found her way out.
The final Journal poll has her hitting the key 50 percent mark against Republican and election denier Audrey Trujillo who scores only 35 percent. Election denying being the central reason.
Up until Trujillo was outed in media ads over her election fantasy and MTO launched a series of her own, positive ads, she appeared to be a potentially potent challenger. After all, a Hispanic vs. an Anglo in New Mexico comes with some built in advantages and she has smarts. Well, on everything except what matters--administering the SOS office in fair and impartial manner and not wiring the results for Trump.
With that simple equation now in play stagnant Maggie has turned into a steamroller and is prepped to lead the Dem ticket on Election Night. (Oh, what could've been, Michelle).
The latest polling has the Dems positioned once again to sweep all the other statewide offices--Attorney General, Land Commissioner, Treasurer and Auditor.
Heck, maybe even Brian Colón gets elected to something--and he's not even on the ballot.
OTHER VOICES
I've been a lifelong "decline to state," but more often than not vote for the Democratic candidate, especially since Trumpism infected the Republican Party. I was seriously considering voting for Ronchetti this fall because of the crime issue. He said he didn't believe in Trump's brand of politics or his "big lie." Yet, Ronchetti has received a glowing endorsement from Trump. So where does that leave me? An experienced governor who has inexplicable difficulty getting more cops on the streets despite record revenue. Or a TV weatherman who has nothing to trade on except his name but who's already proven to be a sellout. As the saying goes, I'll stick with the devil I know.
And reader Michael Corwin, who had long experience in NM politics and now lives in Virginia, has a softball for the Guv. He explains his view of why this year she can't get near the 57 percent she scored against Steve Pearce when she won election in 2018:
One reason is the cult of personality and the power of a media figure with strong name recognition. Ronchetti’s name ID helped him stay close to Ben Ray Lujan in the 2020 US Senate race. And the same with MLG. There are a lot of people who vote, not because of any familiarity or even positions on the issues, but because they feel like they’re supposed to vote. And the familiarity of a name makes that process easier for them.
And they try to make this democracy thing so complex.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022