President Biden has set a Nov. 3 NM visit to campaign for MLG as the Guv race tightens. Former President Obama endorsed her Thursday.
Mark Ronchetti is all crime all the time and MLG is all abortion all the time. The problem for the incumbent is that abortion ranks lower on the list of issues important to voters and has opened the door for Ronchetti's crime message. The MLG polling lead of 8 to 10 points in early October has now been slashed in half, according to our insider sources tracking the data.
The Trafalgar poll showing Ronchetti one point ahead got ahead of itself, but they got the trend right--and that trend has the Governor leaking oil. That's due in part because of her ineffective response to a series of scorched earth ads faulting her on crime.
She continues to hammer the abortion message because it resonates in the ABQ/Santa Fe corridor, the richest vote region in the state. But with everything riding on it, solid turnout among the women who have flocked to her side is essential or else Ronchetti could close the gap some more.
Let's go to a Senior Alligator of the Dem variety for more analysis on the state of the race:
MLG is not demonstrating her economic chops and has not effectively communicated her accomplishments. The economy is the #1 issue statewide. Crime is usually #2. Abortion is in the top three but mainly in ABQ and Santa Fe. MLG is banking on that, clearly, which is why VP Harris visited this week. She’s got to turn out women, period. Ronchetti has made the top two issues his centerpiece (crime & economy). MLG is talking about the issues that are #3-6 on voters’ lists (abortion, education, health care).
Meantime, it's not a bed of roses on the Republican side. They fret that Ronchetti may have milked the crime issue for of all its worth and that he can't get over the hump with that alone. They are hoping that turnout will recede from the record 700,000 voters who turned out for the midterm in 2018, strengthening the hand of the minority party. Early trends do show a backoff from that number but it is too early to predict where we land.
VASQUEZ VS. HERRELL
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| Rep. Herrell |
DC area pundit Larry Sabato is the first of them to switch the race from toss-up to lean Republican, citing the national mood and the past social media posts that have severely damaged Vasquez.
Our analyst, Greg Payne, has had the race ranked lean GOP all along.
Gabe is taking it in the gut on ABQ's westside, portions of which were added to the 2nd Congressional district in redistricting. In mid-October polling MLG was running only about 4 points ahead in that area so it does not appear Vasquez will get the boost he must have in those Hispanic Dem areas.
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE
We're none too happy about our early analysis of the state House races. Suffice it to say we did not take seriously enough the testy waters many of these contests would encounter. But we make good with new off the record interviews with a number of legislative experts.
First, we note the dream of House Minority Leader James Townsend that he reportedly has mentioned out loud--that he will be holding the Speaker's gavel as a result the 2022 election. Some might call that a pipe-dream, given that the 70 member House now has 45 Democrats, but Townsend and the R's have put huge money into the contests and are trying to nationalize the races with the crime issue. They've won the state's attention and we have fresh polling data and news to report on where the battle for the House stands.
The Governor's struggles at the top of the ticket could be trickling down to the House races but the national mood is most important to them because the candidates are not as well-known to the voting public as the top of the ticket.
Here's a look at the key races:
DISTRICT 30--Looking for a dead heat? We've got one. Republican Kurstin Johnson, a newcomer but married to experienced politico Wayne Johnson, a former BernCo Commissioner, has run an aggressive and effective campaign, raising a pile of money and attacking Dem Rep. Natalie Figueroa over that ubiquitous crime issue. Figueroa has been fighting back but she is a school teacher and has had to get back to the classroom. Johnson is a well-known realtor who has more time to knock doors. She also has deep roots in the district. Mid-month polling showed the race tied. 50 percent of district is new and expected Dem performance has dropped by nearly 5 points. Biden carried the district in '20 but he's not helping much this time. Rating: Toss-Up
DISTRICT 29--On ABQ's westside, where MLG is having problems convincing Hispanic men, Rep. Joy Garratt is feeling the pain, too. She is in a hard-fought tussle with retired lawman Greg Cunningham who is hammering away at crime and calling for law and order. Garratt is messaging gun safety and abortion. A fear is that such messaging may be too weak in the face of Cunningham's blitz. Pushing voter turnout is Garratt's way out of the jail the GOP is trying to build for her. She was up three in mid-October. Rating: Somewhere between Lean Dem and Toss-Up
DISTRICT 17--Dems have some optimism about ABQ westside Dem Cynthia Borrego's chances against Republican opponent Ellis McMath. One of our insiders say her name ID is "off the charts" even as the polling shows the contest essentially tied. That name ID is due to Borrego's previous service on the ABQ city council. She has also received late money and out-raised McMath. But if a Red Crime Wave gets rolling McMath could throw cold water on her so there will be no let up in the GOTV effort. Rating: Lean Dem.
If Leader Townsend and his cohort Minority Whip Rod Montoya put those four away they could count on an easy fifth pick-up in District 23 in the ABQ metro NW. That's where Republican Alan Martinez should have an easy go of it over Democrat Ramon Montano. The seat became more GOP leaning after redistricting. Dem Rep. Daymon Ely is retiring from the House.
KEEP A LOOK OUT
Some other races to keep a look out on when you join us for our Election Night coverage November 8 at 6:30 P.M. ON KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com:
Dem Rep. Candie Sweetser is in another rough and tumble contest to hold on in this Deming area seat--District 32--that she has held since 2017. Her Republican challenger is Jenifer Jones but some jokingly call her "Jenifer Diamond." Why? Because this area is represented by Sen. Crystal Diamond in the state senate and Jenifer has worked for her at the Roundhouse. Will this be the start of a Diamond dynasty or will Sweetser sour their dream?
Dem Tara Jaramillo is in a tight battle as she tries to keep House District 38 from GOP hands. But it's tough. The new district is made up of much of the territory represented by outgoing GOP Rep. Rebecca Dow. Jaramillo says retired GOP rancher, Sandra Hammack, her opponent, is "hiding." And she is, refusing to appear at forums or do news interviews. But the Socorro, Sierra and Dona Ana county district could elect Hammack anyway, if the national mood continues to go Red.
The House watchers are also eyeing District 68 in the NW Metro as Dem Charlotte Little faces attorney Robert Moss for an open seat. Also, Dem Rep. Willie Madrid in District 53 in Dona Ana county has had his share of close races. This year he faces Republican Elizabeth Winterrowd.
MOE DRAMA (CONT.)
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| O'Malley |
The Bernalillo County Board of Commissioners has not finalized a date to convene a meeting to appoint an individual to represent New Mexico Senate District 26.
The application process will be announced after a meeting date is selected and confirmed and all public notice requirements are met.
The opening for Senate District 26 representation became available when state Sen. Jacob Candelaria resigned from the seat last week.
Priogressives are desperately trying to advance the meeting where the new senator will be picked. They want it done in January when several new commissioners will be seated and who they expect to be opposed to naming state Rep. Moe Maestas to the seat. Maestas appears to have lined up the three commission votes necessary to win the appointment,
Apparently the commissioners opposed to Maestas--O'Malley and Barboa--are seeking a legal opinion on whether an Oct. 31 meeting allows enough time for applicants to apply for the post. The Maestas camp says there are no legal grounds for a delay but in the meantime no applications are being taken, giving even less time for interested parties to get an application in before any Halloween meeting to make the selection.
The infighting on the commission over the appointment has reached a fever pitch with GOP Commissioner Walt Benson saying he heard O'Malley curse at Commissioner Pyskoty, calling her a "bitch" at the Tuesday meeting. Former Senator Candelaria joined the fray tweeting:
Confirming reports that Commissioner O’Malley called another Commissioner a “bitch” twice at this weeks Bernco Commission meeting, and verbally threatened a county employee who tried to stop it. . . Efforts to delay appointment of my successor to the senate are nothing more than a Mitch McConnell-esque power grab.. . .
When the far left don't get what they want, they engage in the same behavior they chastise Trump and the MAGAs for engaging in.
It would be unprecedented to leave a Bernco seat vacant for two+ months heading into a legislative session.
It's getting so wild down there, they might have to start selling tickets to the meetings--circus tickets.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022