The ABQ Journal poll, conducted October 20-27 and released Sunday, showed a gubernatorial race whose spread has barely budged since the paper's first poll.
In the Journal's final campaign survey Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham leads by 8, getting 50 percent to Ronchetti's 42, with Libertarian Karen Bedonie polling at 3 percent and undecided at 5 percent.
In late August the paper's poll gave MLG a 7 point lead--47 to 40.
Well over 30 percent of the votes expected in the election have been cast early. Assuming the poll's accuracy, to have any chance Ronchetti would need a blow-out performance among the less than 70 percent of the voters yet to cast ballots.
Also, his late negative TV failed to be the game-changer he hoped and with President Biden coming to ABQ Thursday for the Dems, final days momentum may shift to the incumbent.
She polled 87 percent with Democrats, a group Ronchetti needs to crack to make it a race. He scored 88 percent with the much smaller group of Republicans.
HEARTBEATS SKIPPING
Not that there haven't been heartbeat skipping moments for the majority Democrats. The latest was an outlier poll from Trafalgar that showed Ronchetti actually one point up, but that survey has been dashed by the Journal's which is one of their most comprehensive in a history that dates to the 1980's.
The poll was conducted among nearly1,300 likely voters with 83 percent reached by cellphones and done over an eight day period and also included voters who have registered to vote since January 2021. The margin of error is a low 2.8 percent.
ABORTION AT THE CENTER
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| In McKinley County |
In the wake of the June US Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe. V. Wade the revelation continues to prove deadly.
The Smothermon moment also poisoned the Ronchetti claim--central to his candidacy--that he is a nonpolitician, an outsider who would not play political games.
The poll shows the former TV weatherman losing the often conservative independents--42 to 37. Pollster Sanderoff says former Republican Bedonie is polling 7 percent of them.
THE HISPANIC FACTOR
When MLG announced that Biden would be in ABQ on her behalf this Thursday, we cited a Dem poll that showed drift in her support on ABQ's heavy Hispanic westside. That may have been so among Hispanic men but in the Journal survey she scored a whopping 65 percent support among Hispanic women and 62 percent among the overall Hispanic voting population. Ronchetti scored just 30 percent.
Those numbers dismissed the notion of any significant Hispanic erosion and shot down the Republicans insistence that Hispanic Democrats are abandoning the Dems--at least here,
Perhaps it would be different with a Hispanic Republican contender but Ronchetti is an Anglo originally from Vermont. While he is a TV celebrity, his roots here do not go deep.
ATTACK BACKLASH?
The ads attacking MLG over the release of criminal suspect Beltran and the settlement of a sexual harassment case by a former campaign staffer may have been over the top creating some backlash among Hispanic women. We saw Ronchetti overreach in his attacks on Rebecca Dow in the Republican primary. That had little impact but this time the meanness of the spots (and abortion) may have pushed women further into the Governor's corner. Still, she is not beyond 50 percent in a blue state and that shows damage has been done.
While MLG has a solid lead, as Payne points out, it is not overwhelming and her leaning on Biden for help is a sign that she was shaken and is still wary of Ronchetti.
MORE PAIN. . . UH. . . PAYNE
She owes women and, in particular, Hispanic women a debt of gratitude for sticking with her. But, again, this poll isn't a ringing endorsement of MLG as much as it's a rejection of the Ronchetti campaign. Which is why the Journal poll numbers are relatively close for a blue state like NM and its incumbent Democrat governor, and why both candidates - Dem and GOP - are underperforming.
A PROGRESSIVE CLUBHOUSE?
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| Campaigning in Vegas |
The governor should be concerned that she had such a difficult time getting to 50 in a state as blue as ours and with a GOP as disorganized as it is. The Democratic party needs to reestablish their message on economic issues and communicate successes they’ve had in health and education. They need to make an attempt to talk to male voters and reach out beyond metro areas.
Also, they have to stop hiding from the crime issue. That’s not going to happen with the current leadership in the Party and their political professionals who lack election race experience.
If they narrowly avoid disaster this election, party honchos would be wise to reconfigure their organization to one that is built by and for working people, that wins competitive general elections in the years to come and reform the out of touch, geriatric, progressive clubhouse it has grown into.
MORE INFO, PLEASE
It is a decades-old practice but social media is amplifying the discontent over the ABQ Journal not releasing all the crucial crosstabs about their poll. That includes how many Hispanics and Anglos were polled, a breakdown by age of all respondents, political party breakdown and specific geographic performance by the candidates.
The Ronchetti campaign did not comment on the survey but their supporters were busy on the socials trashing the poll because of the omitted information.
It's hard to defend the paper’s omission when most other polls release all their crosstabs, even though the Journal poll's reputation and record is solid. The Journal has chosen to take the heat and not disclose the info--with no reason specified--so the heat will continue.
(One crosstab pollster Sanderoff mentioned in a TV interview but not published in the Journal article was Ronchetti leading by 30 points on the conservative eastside and MLG leading by a similar margin in the liberal north central region.)
THE BIRTHPLACE
The Journal confirmed that MLG is winning in the now traditional birthplace of state election victories--along the I-25 corridor from Santa Fe down to Las Cruces. Ronchetti is strong in rural New Mexico and the SE oil patch, reinforcing the long-standing urban-rural split.
The Republican nominee has kicked off a tour of the state outside of ABQ that will last until Election Day. He will be greeted warmly in areas such as Artesia, Alamogordo and Farmington but while the hearts are there, the votes to win are not.
SURVEY USA FINAL POLL
The final SurveyUSA poll in the NM Guv race confirmed MLG's lead. The Oct. 21-26 poll of 650 likely voters conducted for KOB-TV had her receiving 46% to Ronchetti's 39%. Libertarian Karen Bedonie was at 5 percent and undecided at 9. And also:
In the race for New Mexico’s top election post, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver leads Republican challenger – and election denier – Audrey Trujillo by the same 7-point margin, 43% – 36%. It’s the closest the race has polled since Labor Day.
Raúl Torrez, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, leads Republican Jeremy Gay by 10 percentage points, 47% – 37%.
The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 4.9 percent.
MOE DRAMA OVER?
We're told that means the five commissioners will then schedule another meeting for near the end of November to make their final pick and Maestas is still the top contender.
His possible appointment has generated intense controversy among progressives who oppose his elevation to the Senate and who have fought bitterly with his wife and top lobbyist Vanessa Alarid over the commission's rush to fill the vacancy. Progressives wanted the new commission elected this month to fill the vacancy in January when they are officially seated.
It appears Maestas will win this round but the progressives will be gearing up to take him out in the June 2024 Democratic primary when the seat is on the ballot again. In fact, they are starting already as seen in this Alligator strike on Maestas by a well-known progressive:
This is a bad, three-act play. Act 1 was when Jacob and Moe hatched this succession plan last year. Act 2 was their attempt to shoehorn Moe into the new SD26 during redistricting in December 2021. They tried hard and failed. When that plot collapsed, Moe and Vanessa had to buy a new house in the new district. And now we are in Act 3, this clumsy effort to rush a vote and prevent non-insiders from applying for the appointment. This year-long effort by those two insiders to handpick a successor smells a lot more like Game of Thrones and a lot less like democracy.
Democratic? Maybe not. La Politica hardball? Definitely.
For those who don't think the job is going to go to Moe, you can email your application to manager@bernco.gov.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022