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| Karen Bedonie |
Libertarian Party Guv candidate Karen Bedonie labels herself "Bedonie Tough" and she's getting tough as nails when it comes to Republican Mark Ronchetti. Fed up with R's who accuse her of being a spoiler and urging her to get out of the race so conservatives can unify against MLG, Bedonie came with this late game tongue-lashing of her rival:
It’s amazing some of the phone calls that come in. Like, what does it take for a person to really hate somebody to call the campaign and to yell at our campaign team and telling them that Karen’s gonna split the vote? How crazy are you really thinking this is because it’s impossible to split a vote that was never his? Ronchetti is not a conservative, he’s not a New Mexican. The only comfort I find in this race is that man (Mark Ronchetti) cannot win with me in the way. That man cannot win this race. He will never be governor as long as I am alive and well and in this race.
Those are more than fighting words. They read like an open invitation to anti-abortion Republicans and pro Trump conservatives to make their home with her.
With the video getting widespread attention on social media, the invitation is more than an idle threat.
(The conservative Pinon Post interviewed Bedonie further on her comments.)
The GOP nominee's Republican support has already wavered some because of his muddled abortion stance, his backing away from Trump and with some GOP insiders because of his refusal to compete at the party's February GOP pre-primary convention.
As usual, experts are uncertain what impact the third party hopeful in a Guv race will ultimately have. An early October PPP poll had Bedonie garnering 7 percent. The late August ABQ Journal survey had her scoring 5 percent.
History generally shows that third party contenders peak early and their margins slowly erode toward Election Day. If that occurs with Bedonie--who does not have the funds for a major media campaign--that would have her finishing at around 3 percent or about 21,000 votes of a projected turnout of 700,000.
In the latest average of recent polls Ronchetti is 9 percent behind MLG. If that lead or something akin to it occurs on Election Night, his supporters would be hard-pressed to fault Bedonie. But if the race turned into a cliff-hanger, you're back to the experts really not knowing if she was the deciding factor that tipped the race.
The most significant third party candidate in modern Guv history was in 1994 when Democratic Governor Bruce King lost re-election to Republican Gary Johnson who received 50 percent of the vote to 40 percent for King and 10 percent for Green Party candidate Roberto Mondragon.
Mondragon's run was impactful but probably not decisive. King would have had to get every Mondragon vote to have closed the gap with Johnson.
AS THE CLOCK TICKS
The national GOP, Ronchetti and his consultant Jay McCleskey appear to be digging in their heels on what they still see as their last best chance to win the Guv race. The Republican Governors Association says the buy for their 60 second ad attacking MLG over a state prisoner released early and who went on to kill his ex-girlfriend will be near $1 million or, as the RGA puts it, "high six figures."
The ad went up Thursday morning following the Wednesday night debate where Ronchetti pummeled MLG over the release. But there is a problem. The MLG camp has not put up an ad to counter what is an immense TV buy in the relatively cheap ABQ market. We asked longtime GOP consultant Bob Cornelius for his take:
For now the Governor's campaign appears to believe the Beltran crime ad will not have the desired effect and they will ride it out. The same goes for the Ronchetti ad attacking her settlement of a lawsuit over sex abuse allegations from a former campaign staffer. That tells us her polling shows her with a comfortable enough lead to withstand some erosion. Does that change in the days ahead? We're all watching.
The huge buy by the RGA has a downside. Because they are a PAC they do not get the same favorable advertising rates that a candidate's campaign gets so they could be paying a whole lot to get their message across. That means the million bucks may sound bigger than its actual bite.
Pushing the crime bet even harder Ronchetti has released a plan called "Monique's Law," named after the ex-girlfriend of Chris Beltran who is charged with killing her after his early release. He says it is designed to "prevent the improper early release of dangerous criminals." That full plan is here.
We reported on flaws in the RGA Beltran ad on the Monday blog.
DICK'S DANCE
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| Knipfing |
He's been off the air 8 years but retired TV news anchorman Dick Knipfing retains high name ID among older voters and appeal to independents. That's where Mark Ronchetti, a former TV weatherman and former colleague of Knipfing's, hopes his old friend's endorsement in a new TV ad delivers some punch.
However that endorsement in which Knipfing condemns abortion attack ads against Ronchetti as "false" is not a clean shot for Ronchetti who for years bantered nightly with Knipfing on the KRQE news set.
Knipfing has a controversial public record on--of all things--abortion--a top voting issue this year and a seemingly constant bugaboo for the GOP hopeful.
A number of years ago Knipfing, while serving as a TV news anchor, took part in a public anti-abortion event, even though participation in partisan events is generally prohibited by a station's news personnel. We don't recall if Knipfing received any discipline over the incident and we could not find any news articles, although the archives of the ABQ Journal and/or ABQ Tribune will have them. Suffice it to say, the misstep took a bite out of Knipfing's reputation as an impartial newsman.
(State Dems came with a copy of the 1988 Journal article that we referenced in the blog and which is now posted her. Click to enlarge.)
Then in 2017, three years after his retirement from KRQE, Knipfing authored an ABQ Journal op-ed piece that urged the NM senate to take a up a bill banning late term abortion. He said:
During my more than 50 years reporting and anchoring news on New Mexico television, I steered clear of taking public positions on controversial issues. I’m still inclined to keep my opinions to myself, but sometimes an issue is so important that staying silent is not possible. Late-term abortion is such an issue.
So while Knipfing is a legendary TV newsman, he has shown himself to hold strong anti-abortion views on duty and off duty.
In his TV endorsement Knipfing dismisses the attack ads on abortion against Ronchetti without mentioning them. Photos of several of those ads are shown in the background as Knipfing says:
You trusted me for 50 years to report accurately and truthfully. Well, now these attack ads againt Mark Ronchetti are not true. I've known Mark for 20 years. He's one of the best people I know--truthful, smart compassionate.
Knipfing's sweeping dismissal of the veracity of the ads is based solely on his telling the audience to rely on the "trust" he says they have in him--not any statements of fact or a journalistic investigation, even though he implies that he has made one. Ditto for his citation of his past experience with Ronchetti as a stand-up guy. That is not proof that the ads are "false."
Knipfing, who also gave a TV endorsement to Republican Ronchetti in his 2020 US Senate race against Dem Ben Ray Lujan and who says his religious convictions account for his pro-life position, was truly a newsman of note in state history. But that was then and this is now.
Today he is a hardcore partisan on abortion with demonstrated Republican leanings--not an objective observer committed to delivering the proven truth to a TV news audience--or the one tuning in to his campaign commercial.
And that’s the way it is.
HOW ABOUT HOWIE?
A thought popped into our head when we noticed Lt. Governor Howie Morales campaigning in the Deming area this week. If Dem Gabe Vasquez comes up short in his race against Rep. Yvette Herrell would Morales, a former state senator from Silver City, be the middle of the road Hispanic candidate the Dems turn to in 2024 to take on Herrell?
If MLG and Morales are re-elected his term would run thru 2026 and while there is talk about him trying to succeed her in the Governor's chair the path of least resistance could be the southern congressional seat. A high turnout presidential year would more fully reveal the lean Dem nature of the new district. Just a thought.
SOS LESSON
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| SOS Antonio Lucero |
Joe, Actually, if she wins this race and serves her full term, Maggie Toulouse Oliver will become the longest continuously-serving Secretary of State in New Mexico history. However, the title of longest serving Secretary of State goes to Democrat Rebecca Vigil-Girón (now Rebecca D. Vigil), who served 12 years in the position, first from 1987 to 1990, when statewide officials could only serve one four-year term at a time, and then after the constitution was changed to allow two four year-terms, Secretary Vigil-Girón was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2002.
In addition, at the time of statehood, the first two Secretaries of State were Antonio Lucero, who served from 1912 to 1918, and Manual Martínez, who served from 1919 to 1922. For the last century, beginning with the 1922 election of Soledad Chacón, the last 23 elected Secretaries of State have been women. (In the aftermath of a resignation in 2015, Brad Winter was appointed to serve as Secretary of State, but he did not run for the position).
Well done, Daniel. We go everywhere around here--including the deepest thickets of La Politica.
And that concludes the Tuesday Monster Blog. Will there be yet another tomorrow? Stay tuned.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022