In the Morning Consult survey conducted from July 1 through September 30 MLG scored a 51 percent approval rating with 42 percent of the voters responding ranking her unfavorably.
That's up from the 48 percent she won approval from in the survey conducted from January through March. 45 percent disapproved in that survey.
The margin of error in the surveys is plus or minus 3 points.
The 51 percent approval is a breakthrough but she is still at the lower range of approval among the nation's 50 governors. Only 12 garner approval ratings less than 51 percent leaving her the 38th most popular chief executive.
That is, however, an improvement over March when her approval was only higher than seven of her colleagues and she ranked 44th in the nation.
The approval rating tells us that MLG is on track for a victory over Republican Mark Ronchetti but it also tells us--along with a close reading of other polls--a possible limit on how she can go. That number appears to be around 53 percent, according to the polling site FiveThirtyEight.
Their latest simulations of the MLG-Ronchetti race gives her an 89 out of 100 chance of winning November 8. That's after simulating the race 40,000 times. They have her getting 52.7 percent with Ronchetti at 44.9 and Libertarian Karen Bedonie at 2.4 percent--a 7.8 point lead for the incumbent.
The 538 model is subject to change based on new polling and external events and is adjusted daily.
ADJUSTING THE MESSAGE
Roncehtti's fund-raisers have had to adjust their message as the polling gets gloomy. The are now citing a poll over a month old that had their candidate just five points behind:
Recently Emerson College Polling conducted a test to see who is in the lead for the governor’s race…and it’s close, Joe. We’ve known all along that this would be a tight race, but never imagined it would come down to the wire like this. We’re within a 5 point margin - and we need your help.
STILL ATTACKING
With her campaign nursing what appears to be a 7 to 10 point lead, MLG is still on the attack but not over what you may think. She ignores the Crotchgate sex abuse ad airing against her as well as the ad attacking her over early release of state prisoners.
Instead, her campaign came with a new spot Tuesday that criticizes Ronchetti's tax plan, arguing that it would mean the state's $8.4 billion General Fund budget would be chopped by a harsh $2 billion.
The ad relies on a study of Ronchetti's proposed tax cuts by the NM Voices for Children Action Fund. The study, authored by James Jimenez, a former cabinet secretary for the Dept. of Finance And Administration, said:
The Ronchetti plan proposes permanent tax cuts – personal income taxes and gross receipts taxes – and rebates that in just the first year exceed $2 billion, which is about 25% of the state budget. This is two billion that we won’t have in future years, so where is this money coming from?
Ronchetti says that his plan has a safeguard built in to prevent state revenues from tumbling as he pursues large rebates for citizens:
Every New Mexican, regardless of age, would receive $100 for every
$1 billion the state receives in oil and gas revenue each year. At current oil and gas production and budget surplus levels, this would amount to more than $500 for every man, woman, and child in New Mexico. Trigger mechanisms would be put in place to adjust the rebate in the event of steep revenue downturns to avoid cuts.
Ronchetti would cut state tax rates on lower and middle income earners and leave the top rate of 5.9 percent intact for individuals learning over $210,000 and married couples with income over $315,000. The rate would go to zero for those earning up to $20,000 a year.
MLG signed off on nearly $700 million in rebates this year in the wake of huge funding surpluses financed by dollars coming in from the booming oil and gas fields. The state's budget surplus is forecast to continue to be well over $2 billion.
The workers featured in the MLG ad warn:
(Ronchetti's) plan would force billions in cuts to education, police and health care. Billions in cuts hurting all New Mexicans. Either Mark Ronchetti doesn’t know what his plan actually costs or he doesn’t want us to know.”
The campaign says the ad features "three teachers, two doctors, a nurse, and a retired police captain."
That the incumbent is ignoring the big TV hits that Ronchetti is hoping will turn his campaign around tells much. First, that she does not believe those ads will have much impact. Second, she wants to get more Democrats to the polls to ensure victory by focusing on budget cuts that could impact everyday life for everyday New Mexicans. Third, that the economy is very important and you can't be all abortion all the time.
PS. The Ronchetti campaign says the Dem Gov. Association has hit with an ad that rebuts the RGA Beltran crime ad.
BEDONIE'S "DISSERVICE"
Libertarian Karen Bedonie doesn't have smooth TV ads but she does have her voice and used it--as we reported--Tuesday to unload on Ronchetti, saying he "will never be Governor" as long as she is in the race. That led Santa Fe County GOP official Brett Kokinadis to offer this:
Bedonie confessed that she is in the NM Governors' race to split the vote. This is a disservice to all New Mexicans. Candidate Bedonie should do what is right and drop out of the race, offering a fair choice to New Mexican voters. Our state is in a critical place. We cannot stand to have these types of games being played when the livelihood of New Mexicans are at stake.
PRIMARY FALLOUT
The June primary seems eons ago but it was hard fought and downright bitter in some of the contests, perhaps no more than in the race for the Democratic nomination for sate treasurer featuring former Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya and challenger Heather Benavidez. The fallout from their acerbic showdown brings this:
The State Ethics Commission has approved a settlement with state Treasurer Tim Eichenberg. The settlement comes after a complaint was filed alleging violations of the Governmental Conduct Act by the state treasurer. In the April 27 complaint filed with the commission, it was alleged Eichenberg used the seal of the treasurer of the state of New Mexico on political communications that supported the candidacy of Heather Benavidez. The Governmental Conduct Act prohibits the use of powers and resources of public offices to pursue private interests by legislators, public officials, and public employees. The settlement requires Eichenberg to comply with the Campaign Reporting Act by reporting independent expenditures made in support of the Benavidez campaign.
Eichenberg was fined $250, the maximum allowed by law.
Montoya faces Republican Harry Montoya of Santa Fe in the Treasurer's race which she is heavily favored to win.
DICK'S DANCE (CONT.)
When he was called out for getting involved in a protest over abortion that raised ethical questions about his actions Knipfing quipped:
I am a big boy and I know what the consequences are.
It's 34 years later but Knipfing could use that line again today.
He asserted his journalistic credentials to publicly denounce anti-abortion ads against MLG as "false" only to see his credibility crumble when his long held anti-abortion views were diclsosed to the public.
THE BOTTOM LINES
Meanwhile, a reader has thoughtfully penned a song in honor of our Monster Blogging. With Halloween around the corner it is appropriately sung to the hit tune Monster Mash:
He does the blog, he does the monster blog
The monster blog, it's an instant smash
Joe does the blog, it spreads in a flash
Joe does the blog, he does the monster blog
Yeah. It can be a fun gig, kids.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022