Gregg Hull

The Gregg Hull ship has sprung another dangerous leak with DC pundits bailing out amid a developing financial crisis for the Republican gubernatorial nominee. The Cook Political Report has rerated his race with Democratic nominee Deb Haaland, taking it from "Likely Democratic" to "Solid Democratic." 

That is only going to make a difficult situation worse. The ratings are closely watched by the donor class here and in DC. That "solid" rating is reserved for what the predictors consider close to a sure thing and not to be taken lightly. The Cook report is nonpartisan and has an impressive record made over decades of covering congressional and gubernatorial contests. 

The new and improved Democratic rating comes on the heels of that dismal finance report from Hull who reported cash on hand at the end of June of only $298,000 compared to $2.3 million for Haaland. 

She is raising money across the nation at a nearly maniacal pace, receiving nearly $14 million in total.  Most of it is from donors infatuated with her becoming the first Native American governor in state history and the first female Native American governor in the nation.

As we pointed out upon the release of Hull's report, the lack of money flowing to him from big oil is a break with tradition and could be causing other corporate donors to get shy. Now the Cook rating gives them another excuse to stay on the sidelines. 

PLUGGING THE LEAK 

What can plug the leak in Hull's ship? Good polling would help (no public polling has been released yet) and Haaland making a major campaign flub now seems almost mandatory, if Hull is going to make the contest competitive. 

GOP political pro Bob Cornelius offers this:  

Haaland has said she will debate Hull--unlike in the Democratic primary when she turned down debate offers with Sam Begman. Hull needs to seize that and offer multiple debate venues that could prompt errors from Haaland. That in turn could change the pessimistic narrative that is forming over the race for the Republican and spike his fund-raising.

Haaland's campaign is playing it safe and is often light-hearted in social media postings. Hull has not been applying any pressure via the socials or in his public appearances. The former three term Rio Rancho mayor did not directly attack his GOP primary foes and may be employing a similar strategy--at least for the time being. 

Hull's team points out that while his fund-raising lags Haaland's, she has raised most of her millions from out-of-state donors while most of his funding is from inside the state. They see the race closer than the DC pundits. Offered one Hull backer: 

The DC crowd is heavily influenced by national politics and are not tapped in on the ground here. We think the race will gradually change in the weeks ahead. 

AWKWARD TIMES

Sen. Heinrich

It's been an off-the-wall start for Democrat Martin Heinrich's third US Senate term. 

First, only weeks after winning re-election in November 2025 he began musing about running for governor in 2026. But no boomlet developed for the state's senior senator and he had to publicly withdraw his consideration as Deb Haaland was clearly favored by his party.  It was a humiliation he could have done without. 

Then came Heinrich's bizarre embrace of Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin to be the Trump cabinet secretary for the Department of Homeland Security. Heinrich's endorsement of the far-right Mullin amid intense controversy over the immigration enforcement actions of ICE provoked an outcry among Heinrich's political base. Heinrich stuck with Mullin, calling him a "friend," and was one of only two Dem senators who supported his nomination/

Finally, there was this month's implosion of Maine Dem Senate candidate Graham Platner who Heinrich endorsed early and enthusiastically. He even explained away initial concerns about Platner's past. Platner then became undone over a rape allegation and was forced to withdraw last week and Heinrich was forced to announce that he could no longer support Platner.  

Nicknamed the First Endorser for his across-the-board endorsements of candidates ranging from congress to county commissioner, Heinrich may be having second thoughts about the practice. Backing all those candidates has done nothing to strengthen his political hand here or in DC and as the Platner debacle shows, it is fraught with political danger. 

But why the series of Heinrich missteps? Is this a mid-life crisis for the 54 year old who has been on the Hill since 2009, serving first in the US House and now the Senate? Talk to interested observers and they will say that Heinrich's heart is still with the idea of becoming Secretary of Interior, a post denied him when President Biden chose Deb Haaland. 

Despite his appointment to the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, Heinrich does seem adrift. If it's a midlife crisis perhaps the purchase of a sporty red corvette will resolve it and let him get back to his old self. 

THE FALL OF UBALLEZ 

Alex Uballez

It was a fast rise for Alex Uballez and an equally rapid fall. The former US attorney, a darling of progressives, made a splash in the '25 ABQ mayoral race but fell short in his effort to unseat Mayor Tim Keller. Now it appears any hopes he harbors for a comeback have been washed away in the DEA/fentanyl scandal.

The scandal has hit Uballez so hard that he has lost his voice. Well, figuratively. The camera hungry candidate is now refusing media interviews about the scandal in which the DEA and Uballez allowed a massive amount of fentanyl pills to remain on the streets of ABQ. They said they looked the other way as they tried to build evidence against major drug traffickers. The willful ignorance may have cost many lives through overdoses and has elicited outrage from the Governor, congressional delegation and families of those who died from overdoses. Uballez, the state's chief federal prosecutor at the time of the DEA duplicity, defended their work and his in an initial statement: 

Uballez. . .said authorities at times allowed drug shipments to go unseized as part of a broader effort to gather intelligence and build cases against major drug traffickers. He said the approach reflected his office’s limited resources and his belief that prosecuting larger organizations can have a bigger impact than interdicting every suspected drug transaction. Last year, DEA recorded the largest fentanyl bust in its history in Albuquerque. “The bigger fish are worth catching,” Uballez said, “and that will save more lives.” 

That statement is the last the public heard from Uballez as friends and families marched in protest of the DEA actions. From KOB-TV:

The former U.S. Attorney of New Mexico, Alex Uballez has defended the agency’s broader focus on trafficking networks but questioned the numbers of pills in the whistleblower’s allegations. Uballez declined an interview with 4 Investigates. 

If Uballez can't bring himself to talk to the media, the scandal has been politically devastating and will  resurface anytime he runs for public office. The Keller crowd, while not celebrating Uballez' downfall, does remind us that Keller is now poised to seek an unprecedented fourth mayoral term and that the troubles of Uballez make a run more likely.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics