No Relief Seen For NMGOP With Independent Voters; They Are Allowed To Vote In Primary For First Time But Pros Predict They Will Break Blue As Most Of The State Does

New Mexico Republicans will have their hopes dashed if they expect independent voters to start bumping their numbers. Despite being allowed for the first time to vote in primary elections, a majority of the independents will likely choose to vote in the Democratic primary. That's the conclusion of our political pros as they dive into the data in preparation for the June 2 primary. 

Earlier, veteran NM pollster Brian Sanderoff forecast a turnout of around 10 percent of the 370,000 registered "Decline to State" voters who now comprise 26.2 percent of the electorate. Now the discussion moves to how they will vote. The vibe from the NMGOP is that these new voters present them with a golden opportunity but the opposite appears to be the case. 

Judging by past elections the "lean" of the independent voters here is a mix of moderate and left leaning Dem voters with geography being the key determinant as it often is with registered Republicans and Democrats.  

The lean of an independent often matches the region they live in with indys in ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces leaning Democratic or progressive. Those happen to be where a majority of the votes come from in state elections. 

Only a long shot, heavy marketing campaign to get conservative independents to boost turnout and out number their more liberal counterparts might change that calculus. 

Republicans can still count on the independents in "Little Texas" (Lea, Chaves and Eddy counties) where the GOP dominates but the region can't compete with the big numbers in the state's three Dem dominated cities. 

Interestingly, Los Alamos County has one of the highest percentages of independent voters (over 30%), often consisting of highly educated, moderate-to-lean-Democratic professionals. 

Much of this was obvious when the Democratic-controlled legislature permitted the semi-open primaries hat opened the door to indy voting. Approval cam as the Dems are on an historic roll here. They control the governorship, all statewide executive offices. the entire legislature, the State Supreme Court and the mayoral offices of ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces. 

Here's how one campaign consultant sums up the issue:

Joe, about 35% of New Mexicans under 35 are registered as independents—more than are registered with either major party. They traditionally lean left on social and environmental issues.  Also, a significant portion of Native American and Hispanic voters (particularly younger ones) are choosing  "Decline to State." By opening the primaries, Democrats are essentially creating a smoother "on-ramp" for these voters to participate in Democratic contests.   Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 130,000 statewide. Even if independents split 50/50, the math still favors Democrats. 

BUDGET BATTLES 

The ABQ mayor's office has released the city's proposed budget for the year beginning July 1 and the push and pull is underway over the $1.47 billion measure now being considered by the city council. This blog reader has a complaint:  

 Joe, I love and read the blog (loved the April Fools' jokes, too). I'm a small business owner with a small audio/video production company that tries very hard to get government contracts. But, the city keeps giving all of its contracts to Bands of Enchantment which is OK. But, now, Councilor Dan Champine wants to give them $280,000 more and that would mean they are at almost $1 million. Come on! Spread it around! There are dozens of companies like mine fighting for business, and BOE folks are getting all the money from the city, plus they get to use the Kimo, plus they already get major distribution on PBS. It just feels like someone is picking a favorite here and not giving the rest of a chance. Also, with the city's budget crunch, it doesn't make sense that one private company is getting so much money, to me, anyway. 

BOE produces what has been an award winning TV series and music festival in downtown. It is broadcast on PBS and streamed on Prime video and other platforms. Champine's resolution providing the additional funding for BOE is Council Bill No. R-26-12.

GOT THE CREEPS 

An AI generated photo we used of Sen Heinrich with then-Sen. Markwayne Mullin did not settle well with this reader: 

It gave me the creeps that you posted a fake photo. If you can't find an actual photo, why not go whole hog and have the bros naked drinking bourbon on the beach? 

Hmm. We're not sure the Heinrich-Mullin bromance reaches that level--but we'll mull it over.             

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