It was only a brief sugar rush for Sam Bregman. 

Deb Haaland's weaker than expected performance in the Emerson College-KRQE poll released last week was quickly washed away when the ABQ Journal survey was released Sunday and showed her not only above the 40 percent support of Democratic primary voters Emerson had her at, but at 52 percent--above the magic 50 percent mark that so often signals an Election Night victory. 

Bregman received 30 percent support and 18 percent were undecided in the June 2 Democratic gubernatorial primary election, according to the poll which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

So what happened? The answer was on our Thursday blog where questions were raised about the number of independent voters surveyed by Emerson. For the first time indys are able to vote in the Democratic and Republican primary elections. The Emerson sampling of them, who lean more toward Bregman, appeared to be on the high side. 

The Journal survey, led by the estimable Brian Sanderoff, included 65 likely independent voters in the April 17-24 survey of 534 voters. That represents 12 percent of the Democratic electorate although independents make up 26 percent of the state's registered voters. Sanderoff previously told us that we would be lucky to reach a 10 percent turnout among the indys so his 12 percent allotment in the Dem primary was actually generous. They broke for Bregman 37 to 33. He told us Sunday:

When it comes to adding independent voters for the Primary poll, we are entering a new and unknown world, due to the statutory changes. For the Democratic Primary in the Governor's race, 12% of the sample is among unaffiliated voters who said they will vote in the Democratic Primary. Of this group, 31% said they are undecided in the Governor's race.  

The independents did appear to spell the difference between the two surveys and rapidly reset the table for the primary, with Bregman having to scurry to make up lost ground and Haaland probably more resolute in not rocking the boat and even more committed to not giving Bregman any debating rope. It's not as though Bregman has run a poor campaign. It has been spirited. His media has been polished. He has been on message and out on the campaign trail. But the math in a Democratic primary is now so tilted  toward a progressive candidate that a fading species like Bregman--a moderate Dem--starts three laps behind. He could use another progressive in the race to chip away at Haaland. 

VICTORY LAP

The Haaland campaign joined the Emerson and Journal polls together to take a victory lap:

Data from the Albuquerque Journal and KRQE/Emerson College agrees, Haaland is poised to secure the nomination by double digits. According to the Journal poll, she is leading across demographic groups and with Independent voters. Meanwhile, Haaland’s opponent fails to gain ground despite campaigning for over a year and spending millions on advertising.

A double-digit win would mean at minimum a victory of 55-45 over Bregman. In late February Haaland’s campaign released an internal poll showing her at 56% support. Bregman made no comment on the Journal poll after boasting about the closer Emerson survey. 

 THE DEMOS 

The Journal, whose polling still relies on more expensive but also more accurate professional cell phone interviews, said Haaland showed strength with women (57-33) as well as those who identify as liberal/progressive (65-24) and those with college degrees (60-23). Those are the prime demographics who vote in the traditionally low turnout primary elections. 

Bregman scores higher with Hispanics (45-38), men (47-33) and the noncollege educated.

STILL SOME TIME 

The one ally Bregman has--but not for long--is time. Heavy in person-early voting is still over two weeks away. That gives him time to adjust his message and retool. But the Journal poll is the gold standard and going forward he will need fresh surveys that show him making progress, if his fundraising boat is to stay afloat. And it goes without saying that Haaland is going to have to make some serious campaign mistakes. 

The Journal is not expected to do any more polling for the primary. They say they will release the results of their survey in the Republican gubernatorial primary next Sunday. 

Haaland, who would be the nation's first Native American woman to be a governor, has nationalized her candidacy and collected a breathtaking $11.1 million in donations with months of fundraising still ahead. Sanderoff and others have opined that the desire of the Democrats to accomplish an historic first is driving the party's sentiment toward her.

So after a brief flirtation with a possibly closer race than expected, we are back where we started with Haaland's dominance showing and Bregman still looking for a magic formula to move her off the magic number.  

BETTING ON IT 

Bregman supporters can't look to the betting markets for any polling relief. Those plunking down cash on the Polymarket prediction site show bettors picking Haaland 82 to 18 percent to win the primary. 

The BernCo District Attorney did better with a NYT headline teasing their report on the primary:

Deb Haaland’s Historic Run for Governor Hits a Primary Snag; The former interior secretary seemed to have an easy path to becoming the first woman and Native American to be New Mexico’s governor — until Sam Bregman challenged her.  

Bregman only wishes that could have been the headline above the latest poll.  

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