Deb Haaland has work to do and state Republicans have some major deciding to do. Those are the messages from the first public polling of the '26 gubernatorial primary races released Wednesday.

The April 18-19 survey conducted by Emerson College for KRQE-TV gave a jolt to the political community showing Haaland beating Sam Bregman 40.4% to 23.9% with a large 35.7 percent undecided. 

That 16 point lead for former Sec. of Interior Haaland is down significantly from the 30 point lead (56-26) she had in a poll released by her campaign in February. 

On the Republican side former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull came out on top in this first public poll, getting 21 percent support to 10 percent for cannabis executive Duke Rodriguez and 9 per cent for ABQ businessman Doug Turner. But the most important number turned out to be the undecided. A whopping 61 percent of those planning to vote in the GOP primary, including independents, said they had not made up their mind.

Emerson provided some of the demographics from the poll for the Dem primary:

Deb Haaland holds plurality support, driven by a 24-point advantage among women, leading Bregman 42% to 18% and a 30-point lead among voters with college degrees, leading 53% to 23%. Men break for Haaland by a narrower margin: 38% support Haaland and 31% Bregman, and voters without a college degree are split: 28% support Haaland and 25% Bregman.” Registered Democrats break for Haaland, 48% to 23%, while independent voters participating in the Democratic Primary break for Bregman, 28% to 17%; a majority of independents are undecided (56%). 

Emerson did not release demographic info on the Republican race. 

INDYS OVER SAMPLED?

The firm polled 1,000 likely primary voters including 250 independents who for the first time are able to vote in state party primary elections. That's 25 percent of the electorate, reflecting their state registration However, their turnout rate for the primary is expected to be much lower--from 5 to 10 percent of the voters, say most analysts we have interviewed. That could explain some of Haaland's weakness in the survey. Bregman does best with men and independent voters, with the possibility that the poll may have over sampled the independent influence.

BREGMAN REACT 

Bregman and Haaland

Still, Bregman took heart from the survey showing as it did showing as it did that Haaland was still below the magic 50 percent mark that so often signals a candidate's eventual victory. The BernCo District Attorney's campaign made these points to the blog: 

The Undecided Factor: At 36%, the "Undecided" vote is. . .a massive opportunity for Bregman to pull ahead as the June 2nd primary approaches in six weeks. 

The Independent Surge: This is New Mexico’s first semi-open primary. Bregman’s record as Bernalillo County District Attorney resonates strongly with the Independent voters who are expected to decide this election. 

Haaland is Underperforming: Despite years in the national spotlight, Haaland has failed to clear the 50% mark, signaling that Democratic and Independent voters are looking for an alternative.

Well, independents will be hard-pressed to "decide this election" but despite the hyperbole Bregman did get a life line from the poll and his fund-raising should not take a major hit as a result. 

The Haaland campaign made no public comment on the survey. 

PAYNE'S TAKE 

Our longtime blog analyst, former ABQ City Councilor and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne said last week when Haalnd released a campaign finance report that dwarfed Bregman's numbers  that it appeared her candidacy was becoming "a fait aaccompli." We asked him to revisit the campaigns in light of the Emerson survey:

I'm a little surprised Deb Haaland isn't at 50 percent. Neither of the theses campaigns seeem to have fired up the Democratic base fully yet. For the amount of money she has spent and to be at only 40 percent would bother me if I were her campaign manager. On the flip side there are still many undecided but I don't seem them breaking Sam Bregman's way. So her candidacy is looking more like "a quasi-fait-accompli."

The Republican polling drew less immediate reaction because it appears so wide open and everyone involved is waiting for the three candidates to get their paid media up and running which appears will be a deciding factor in what is shaping up as a close contest for the state's minority party. 

Emerson says of its April 18-19 survey:

The sample of New Mexico likely primary voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The Democratic Primary consists of n=564 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.1%. The Republican Primary consists of n=436 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.7%

 NEW MEXICANS ON ISSUES

Also from Emerson's findings: 

A majority of voters (61%) are undecided. Healthcare and the economy are the top issues foro likely primary voters, at 23% respectively, followed by crime (17%), education (12%), housing affordability (9%), threats to democracy (7%), and immigration (5%). 

JOURNAL POLL SUNDAY 

An unusually early ABQ Journal poll of the June 2 primary election contests hits the streets and the screens this Sunday. It could sway potential donors but because of the early start it will not have the predictive power a mid-May survey would have. 

This April poll is the only one the Journal has planned for the primary.

Longtime pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling says the survey to be released this weekend will cover the contested Democratic statewide races which include governor, land commissioner and secretary of state. He did not say if the results will be rolled out in one day or over several days. 

Results of the polling in the Republican gubernatorial contest will not be released until Sunday, May 3.

In 2024 the Journal poll of that year's primary election was conducted May13-18 so it included voters who had already cast ballots and fewer undecided voters. It also captured candidate momentum heading into the final days of the campaign. This year's April survey comes before any early votes have been cast and also before the heaviest advertising begins.

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