Insiders don't expect Rodriguez, nicknamed the Cannabis King for his ownership of Ultra Health, the state's leading legal marijuana business, to win that convention. He faces competitors Gregg Hull, Steve Lanie, Doug Turner and Jim Ellison.
Those insiders point to several reasons for Rodriguez's expected mediocre preprimary showing. One is his status as a party outsider. Another is the disclosure reported on this blog that in the past decade he has donated at least $189,000 to the campaigns of Democratic candidates.
"They absolutely hate that," declared a GOP operative now desperate to slow Rodriguez in the aftermath of his two court wins.
It will take 20 percent of the voting delegates--(about 500 voted in 2024) for a candidate to secure a party-approved spot on the ballot. That's a low bar but Rodriguez actually does not need to cross it to continue his candidacy. Candidates who don't reach that threshold can submit more petition signatures to get on he ballot and Rodriguez already has more than enough to do just that.
Outsider Guv candidate Mark Ronchetti saw the writing on the wall when he ran in 2024. He bypassed the convention and still went on to easily win the nomination.
Not Duke. He is living up to his reputation as a scrappy fighter and is twisting arms to get to the 20 percent. If he does he will see it as a victory that further demoralizes his foes. If he doesn't, there is little downside.
STOPPING DUKE
Can his
opponents keep him under 20 percent and ignite some enthusiasm to stop
his wild romp toward the nomination? A big win by one of them--perhaps
Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull--might help reset the race and make it more
competitive--if such a win resulted in better fundraising.
Amplifying the desperation of the anti-Duke chorus is that pledge he's made to spend upwards of $2 million of his own money on the primary. He's been making good on it by buying expensive full-page newspaper ads and a digital presence.
While Republicans may hate his Dem donations, the party of business loves it when a candidate has that kind of skin in the game.
The preprimary will be conducted in a still unsettled legal environment surrounding the Rodriguez candidacy. The District Court rulings on the two lawsuits challenging his NM residency could be appealed and undergo the legal scrutiny they have so far evaded. Both suits were dismissed for technical reasons with the residency issues going unaddressed,
But that's down the road. For now Rodriguez appears to own the road that leads to Primary Night '26.
THE BOTTOM LINES
Former state Senator John Sapien, once a ringleader of the now defunct conservative Dem coalition that ruled the chamber, is back in politics. The Corrales businessman is running in the June primary for an open seat on the Sandoval County Commission. It's familiar territory for Sapien. His late father once represented the same commission district. . .The infamous New Mexico Zorro Ranch is getting a closer look as the Epstein files continue to filter out. The NYT takes a long look.
This the Home of New Mexico Politics.