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Thursday, October 02, 2025Clippings From Our Newsroom Floor: Mayor Keller's Various Poll Ratings Explained, Some Charter School Power And A Plan To Import Politicos The Research and Polling survey conducted Sept. 19-26 gives Keller a 42 percent approval rating and 47 percent disapproval. The paper notes that his approval in their polling in 2018 was 61 percent; 60 percent in October 2020 and 50 percent in 2021 when he won his second term. But they don't mention their poll released November 2, 2022 that gave Keller a dismal approval rating of just 33 percent. Flash forward three years and he is up nearly ten points from that mark to 42 percent. For purposes of this election cycle Keller's approval rating has actually been on an up slope, coinciding with a moderate drop in crime stats from historic levels. Still, in the Journal's candidate horse race Keller polled at 29 percent, well below his approval rating. But with a month of heavy paid media coming on his behalf and negative campaigning against him not expected to match that output, Keller's low number for Election Night could be around that 42 percent mark. Could he get to 50 percent and avoid a run-off as Democratic analyst David Alcon argues? He could, if the negative campaign against him doesn't stick. Alcon points out that Keller's approval rating among Democrats in the new poll is 54 percent. He says: Dem City Councilor Louie Sanchez is the best performing native ABQ Hispanic candidate but he is only polling at 6 percent while Daniel Chavez has dropped out and Republican Eddie Varela is at two percent. Alex Uballez also polled at 6 percent. CHARTER POWER Matthew Pahl, Executive Director Public Charter Schools of New Mexico, writes: Hi Joe, longtime reader, first time emailer. I'm writing to share that New Mexico's public charter schools are demonstrating the power of school choice. A poll by Research and Polling last fall found that 73% of New Mexicans support expanding public charter schools in their communities. Families are seeing the benefits of school-level decision-making and mission-driven education, which foster stronger connections and better outcomes. Charter schools consistently outperform traditional district schools, especially among economically disadvantaged students, who read at proficient levels 5 percentage points higher. Over 10% of New Mexico students are now enrolled in charter schools, with enrollment growing annually. Despite misconceptions, charter schools in New Mexico are public schools and are held to rigorous accountability standards—including oversight by elected authorizers and the same performance and governance requirements as all public schools in the state. IMPORT POLITICOS  Joe, the dissatisfaction with mayoral, candidates suggests a larger problem in New Mexico. We’re running out of politicians. The legislature refuses to address the state’s largest problems such as crime and the shortage of medical care. No candidate running for governor promises any significant change. Our Congressional delegation spends more time fighting the federal government than participating in it. The only reason the voters don’t throw these people out of office is that there’s nobody else to vote for. It’s unlikely New Mexico will produce a new generation of leaders when our smartest young people are leaving the state. So here’s a modest proposal: Import a fresh crop of politicians. We need a bipartisan organization to identify promising people in other states – such as up-and-coming Democrats in Texas and Republicans in California -- and offer them incentives to move to New Mexico. If they can work remotely for out-of-state employers, so much the better. The political parties can introduce them to green chile and groom them to run for office in a few years. (This would require Republicans to organize an actual political party.) This probably sounds far-fetched, but if a New Mexico town can name itself after a television show, anything is possible. Jim, how about we recruit doctors with politician ambitions and kill two birds with one stone? This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.Wednesday, October 01, 2025Hot Button Healthcare Item Has Senate Majority Leader Feeling Heat; Makes A Closely Watched Promise On Medical Compacts; Guv Puts Item On Special Session Agenda But Only For "Study", Plus: Complete Special Session Agenda
Wirth's woes began when he fought the move to place on today's special session agenda the adoption of interstate compacts for doctors and other health care workers. Those are agreements among states to accept medical licenses from other states that have adopted the compacts. An example would be a doctor licensed in Texas showing that license to the NM Medical Board and quickly getting licensed here. The problem is that Wirth is a noted Santa Fe trial attorney, a profession that has opposed the compacts despite their adoption in over 40 other states. The lawyers oppose a provision that prevents them from suing the interstate compact commissions, the boards that oversee each compact. Against that backdrop the Democratic leader stiffened his spine and came with this retort against his opponents: Healthcare policy should not be held hostage to short-term grant deadlines. Making permanent changes to professional licensing standards based on temporary funding availability and an ever-changing set of rules coming from the federal government sets a dangerous precedent. (Lawmakers) need the time between the special session and January to examine how the compacts would interact with New Mexico’s existing laws and ensure changes serve providers and patients long-term. Trouble is the compacts easily passed the House last session but were thwarted in the Senate by maneuvering over amendments. Then there's Wirth's fellow Democrat, MLG, saying she wanted the compacts considered at the special session but could not include the item in her agenda because it would be blocked by "legislative leaders." The Governor does list the compacts on her special session agenda but only for study not legislative action: Back to Senator Wirth. The dam could not hold and he soon changed his tune as a backlash developed. His new and improved statement brought forth the promise that is now under the microscope: I do support the medical compacts. I think that’s priority number one, and we’re going to get that done in January and work hard between now and then to make it happen. But it’s just not ready to go at this point in the special session. No wonder there was political backlash to Wirth's initial reticence. New Mexicans across the state are bemoaning the lack of doctors, swapping horror stories about months-long waits to see a provider or having to take themselves or their sick kids in need of specialists across state lines. And getting on Zoom is not an option if the Doc is not licensed here. To block a relatively simple measure like the compacts that could make a dent in the doctor shortage is untenable for the Democrats. That the Republicans have signed on to the compacts makes matters worse for them. COMPACT BINOCULARS Approving the compacts would not be the waving of a magic wand but it is a step to directly addressing the lack of doctors available to see the sick. Wirth's pledge to "get that done" means the majority leader can take his back off the Roundhouse walls for now, but it will be right back on them if his day job interferes with his pledge to take action (and not action that butchers the compacts.) Fred Nathan of Think Mexico already has his binoculars on and remains worried: Stay tuned. A DIFFERENT ANGLE  A more impactful solution, particularly for New Mexicans seeking out-of-state care, would be to automatically license physicians at major medical centers to practice in NM. This would enable patients who travel for care to legally receive telemedicine follow-up consultations. Examples of major medical centers include MD Anderson Cancer Center and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center for cancer care; The Steadman Clinic and Hospital for Special Surgery for orthopedic care; and the Mayo Clinics and Cleveland Clinic for a wide range of conditions. Surely someone knowledgable in public health issues could develop suitable criteria or a list of centers. Thanks David. Good luck with your healthcare journey. SPECIAL AGENDA Here is the Governor's complete special session agenda as released by her office:--Rural Health Care Delivery Fund expansion: Amending the Rural Health Care Delivery Fund to allow for grants to health care providers and facilities in high-needs geographic health professional shortage areas and stabilize the provision of existing health care services. --Health insurance exchange eligibility: Adjusting eligibility requirements for participating in the New Mexico health insurance exchange. --Vaccine standards: Requiring rules for the immunization of children attending school or child care to be based on the recommendations of the New Mexico Department of Health, allowing the Department of Health to set vaccination standards for adults, and requiring vaccines purchased pursuant to the statewide vaccine purchasing program to be recommended by the Department of Health. --Federal budget cuts response: Appropriating funds to respond to recent federal budget cuts. --Western New Mexico University Board of Regents: Confirming regents to the Western New Mexico University Board of Regents.  --Behavioral health legal proceedings: Appropriating funds to the Administrative Office of the Courts for a competency pilot program and behavioral health support for parties in legal proceedings. --Appropriation Contingency Fund: Transferring funds into the Appropriation Contingency Fund to ensure New Mexico has money set aside for emergency response. --Regulation and Licensing Department funding: Appropriating funds to supplement the New Mexico Regulation and Licensing Department's budget. --Interstate medical licensing compact: Studying and preparing for the implementation of any interstate medical licensing compact. --Legislative expenses: Appropriating funds for the expenses of the Fifty-Seventh Legislature, First Special Session, 2025. The New Mexican has a play by play on each item. THE BOTTOM LINES Now there are six, but the names of seven mayoral candidates will still be on the November 4 ABQ election ballot. The candidacy of Daniel Chavez has imploded as the candidate deals with a battery charge and the ABQ Journal poll that had him receiving only 1 percent of the vote. He cited that poll--not his legal troubles--as the reason for ending his mayoral run. Coming as late as his withdrawal does, his name will remain on the ballot. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Tuesday, September 30, 2025Special Session Scored As Trump Bashing Party But Major DC Health Care Cuts Loom Over Roundhouse, Plus: Medicaid For New Mexico's Future; Strategies Weighed That question has been repeated and answered by state Republicans who say MLG's decision to call a special is simply an opportunity to bash Trump. Senate Minority Leader Bill Sharer claims the session is about "fantasy worries" and says no New Mexican will lose Medicaid or food stamps for at least 18 months. To me, this session is really just to stand up there and talk about how evil Trump is because there’s nothing that needs to be fixed right now. No doubt the Democratic majority will have sharp words for the Trump presidency and Sharer's concern about an overtly political session resonate but shocking numbers repeatedly cited by Sen. Martin Heinrich give pause to that concern. What's coming down the tracks looks like a locomotive filled with dynamite ready to explode on impact--special session or not. Heinrich, whose estimates come from the NM Health Care Authority and other experts, has been ringing the bell for months on the potential crisis, saying the state is in line to lose $4 billion in federal Medicaid funding each year over the next five years--a $20 billion hit. The forthcoming cuts to Medicaid--if accurate and if they stand--are an existential threat to the state's finances even as we rake in billions from oil and gas. The stunning cuts reflect New Mexico's status as a welfare state with more residents (40 percent) dependent on the program than any other. The program costs about $10 billion annually. The Feds cover two-thirds ($6–7 billion). A $4 billion annual cut would wipe out half the federal share and leave the state staring at an estimated 90,000 people losing benefits, according to Heinrich. It would be a generational tragedy if the ample state reserves built up in various funds had to be drawn down to make up for humongous federal cuts, not to mention the possibility of tax increases. The Trump administration says the cuts target "waste, fraud, and abuse," including stricter work requirements for able-bodied adults and reduced funding for undocumented immigrants. The special session will, as Sen. Sharer asserts, spend plenty of time on non urgent issues. For example, appropriating money to make up for federal public broadcasting cuts could wait until the January session. But if the session makes progress in raising awareness about what may be one of our most pressing financial challenges than it could be worth the drive up La Bajada. THE FUTURE MEDICAID
Joe, the last time New Mexico truly reformed Medicaid was in 1997, when I was Cabinet Secretary and we converted a bloated fee-for-service program into a managed care system. Since then, there have been no meaningful changes — only cosmetic rebrands. Medicaid has multiplied ten fold in size and cost. Providers are leaving, patients can’t get appointments, and outcomes are flat. The strategy: --Run Medicaid as a pharmacy benefit manager (PBM). Other states have cut out pharmacy middlemen and saved hundreds of millions. West Virginia saved $54M in its first year, Ohio uncovered $224M/year in spread pricing, and New York projects $500M+ annually. New Mexico should do the same, with full rebate pass-through and caps on reimbursable executive pay. --Our managed care contracts must be rebid with accountability baked in. That means penalties, bonuses, secret shopper audits, and transparency. And no more underwriting golden parachutes: Presbyterian’s CEO was paid $4.5M in one year, while Molina’s CEO pocketed a $181M package built on Medicaid revenues. “If managed care means mismanaged money and million-dollar CEO payouts, we rebid the contracts and change the rules.” --Medicaid should only serve those lawfully entitled to benefits. That means real-time eligibility checks, consistent redeterminations, and integration with SNAP. Every ineligible enrollee drains resources from those truly in need. “Medicaid is for the eligible — not everyone who slips through the cracks.” --Massachusetts and Oregon have capped Medicaid growth at 3–4% annually. New Mexico must do the same. Families and businesses can’t outspend their paychecks — neither should Santa Fe. “A sustainable Medicaid program lives within its means.” --About 5% of enrollees consume 50% of all spending. These patients need smarter, integrated care — “health homes,” predictive analytics, and case management to cut ER overuse, duplicate testing, and readmissions. “Care for the sickest better — and spend smarter while we do it.” --The LFC has revealed Medicaid IT modernization costs ballooning to over $800M, with delays into FY27 and no evidence of better access. That’s nearly a billion dollars on back-office systems while patients still can’t get an appointment. Future RFPs must push IT costs onto vendors, integrate systems with SNAP, and include clawbacks if results don’t materialize. --We’ve spent $2.2B on provider rate hikes with more than $1B going to hospitals. Yet patients still face long waits and too few providers. Any future raises must be contingent on measurable improvements in access and outcomes. “Bigger checks must buy better care. No results, no raise.” Other states have already proven these reforms work. New Mexico has simply lacked the will. The last time we fixed Medicaid, it lasted a generation. Now, the costs are higher, the problems deeper, and the stakes even greater. The question is whether we will treat Medicaid reform with the urgency it deserves. If we don’t, nothing else — not classrooms, not roads, not water, not wages — will have the oxygen to succeed. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Monday, September 29, 2025A Dissatsified City Is Also Dissatisfied With Mayoral Choices; Journal Poll Shows Undecided Voters Exceptionally High; Keller Leads But Draws Just 29 Percent As His Foes Lag Far Behind; Election '25 News And Analysis Is Up Next
A city dissatisfied with the direction it's going in is also dissatisfied with the choices to lead the city for the next four years. The dreary details are revealed in the ABQ Journal poll of the November 4 mayoral race, showing none of the seven candidates could even manage 30 percent of the vote. Also, in what appears to be an historic high for this stage of a mayoral campaign, 37 percent of likely voters polled describe themselves as undecided. Granted, there hasn't been much of a campaign and the race should grow more heated In October but no one is expecting fireworks. Mayor Tim Keller, seeking an unprecedented third consecutive four year term, is in a fight with himself. His low approval ratings are haunting him as Keller only pulls 29 percent of the vote despite having nearly universal name ID. The problem is illustrated with this social media reaction to the poll from Brett Hendrickson: Keller has had 8 years to clean up the city and now wants another 4 years. Where is the logic in giving him another term? I don’t trust polling. Driving down Central, Zuni, and Menaul is enough for anyone to want change. Keller's campaign said of the poll: Our campaign is strong, our message is resonating, and Mayor Tim Keller is in the lead. In a crowded field of seven, Tim is the clear frontrunner. . . 37% of voters are still undecided. That means this race is far from over. And with Darren White — a Trump lackey who represents a dangerous, backwards vision for Albuquerque — in second place, it’s clear what’s at stake. The landscape still points to Democrat Keller coming in first but getting 50 percent of the vote in order to avoid a run-off election with probable second place finisher Darren White remains a steep climb. White, however, is worse off. The former sheriff's 16 percent support is half of what the main GOP candidate in the contest could expect at this point. That he is nowhere close to that level speaks to the high pile of negative baggage he's accumulated with fellow Republicans during his time in the public eye including his controversial move into the legal marijuana business That makes any Keller-White run-off already looking like a fait accompli for the incumbent.
Mayling Armijo, Daniel Chavez and Eddie Varela are polling at one or two percent. The Journal showed those levels of support among Dems, Republicans and indys. That makes the trio nonfactors in the contest. Progressive former US Attorney Alex Uballez falls flat, garnering a mere 6 percent of the vote. He now has to determine how fluid the electorate is, if he can make a major move and muster the necessary money. A tough position but still a lingering threat if something big should happen. His campaign said of the survey: This election will be decided by the 37% of likely voters who are still undecided and the unlikely voters we recruit into the project of democracy. Predictably, the top two candidates currently are the incumbent with only 29% support and Darren White with only 16% support. . .Any poll done this far out from the election is more a measure of name recognition than it is support. Alex’s main competition in this race is name recognition, nothing else. For now Trump does not appear to be strongly motivating the progressive vote. Keller, who gets 43 percent Democratic support in the survey, will work to change that as will Uballez. MONEY MATTERS The Mayor is the only candidate who can really do much of anything in the final stretch because he is the only hopeful with any significant money. He was the only one to qualify for over $750,000 in public financing when the others failed. They then failed to raise money from a public they have yet to impress. As of September 8 Keller had $654,000 in public financing still left to spend and an outside PAC supporting his candidacy reported $120,000 in cash. That's $774,000 of messaging power versus White's $130,000 in cash; Sanchez's $149K and $116,000 for Uballez. The Journal poll could make raising additional money to take on Keller even more difficult. Keller will likely be the only candidate with a significant TV ad campaign. The vast majority of voters in a mayoral race are well over 50 and watch local TV news stations and their network programming. Younger voters, much less likely to vote, are not big TV watchers but are glued to social media. The lack of enthusiasm or even the disdain for the mayoral field drew this comment from longtime political analyst and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne: After this poll Keller ought to change his campaign slogan to "Better the Devil You Know." GETTING TO 50
Here is a closer look at that extraordinary 37 percent of voters who say they are still undecided. When those undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning toward, most still said they were not sure. But with those who did express a “lean” factored in, Keller’s support in the survey rose to 35%, with White’s support at roughly 19%. Even after the "leans" are accounted for 29 percent of voters remain undecided. That signals a low voter turnout, well below the 120,000 who voted for mayor in 2021. That favors Keller's political machine which is well-financed and can target the most likely voters with expensive mail and TV. Ordinarily most analysts would not entertain the thought of having no run-off election in a seven candidate field but the massive financial mismatch and the weakness of the opposing campaigns still keeps some hope alive in the Keller camp that they can get him to an outright majority. The Journal has Keller’s approval rating at 42%, up about 10% from a couple of years ago so that also puts the 50% mark on the table. That may be the most suspenseful question going forward unless his challengers can somehow reverse course in roughly the month remaining on the '25 election calendar Th Journal polled 514 likely city voters Sept. 19-26. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. 96 percent of voters polled were reached by cell phone and 4 percent by landlines. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. |
 
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