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Thursday, September 25, 2025Poll Says Santa Fe Voters Are Very Unhappy Over City's Direction and Turning To Michael Garcia In Mayor's Race; He Sports A Solid Lead And Challengers Appear To Face Steep Climb Catching
The Garcia surge to replace two-term Mayor Alan Webber was actually recorded Aug18-24 in a poll conducted on behalf of the Santa Fe Realtors Association, but the group did not release the survey until this week. When they did it was a jaw dropper because Garcia appeared considerably ahead. There is another catch to the poll by American Strategies which does polling for real estate groups nationally. They did not have a horse race question, matching the contenders against each other. Instead they chose to ask voters if they rated the candidates favorably or unfavorably. Garcia fared far better than any other candidate in the race, with 14% of voters rating him "very favorably" and 29% "somewhat favorably." Ron Trujillo ranked second, with 31% finding him favorable (8% very favorable), and JoAnne Vigil Coppler third, with 28% finding her favorable (5% very favorable). This is Trujillo's second try for mayor. He is an anti-Webber populist but Garcia is doing better at bottling the anger of voters. The other four candidates, including progressive Santa Fe County Commissioner Justin Greene, were largely unknown to those polled. All the hopefuls have only about a month to turn the race around. That will take a hearty Stop Garcia movement featuring high octane negative messaging to reverse the trend, say experts such as Sana Fe Fe attorney, former state legislator and political consultant Greg Payne: I think it's an uphill battle for all of the Garcia challengers. If I had to predict today, I'd say Garcia wins. But my main take away from this poll is, the people of Santa Fe are pissed off. Mayor Webber is seen as a total failure. Payne's perception is grounded in this finding of the poll of 400 Santa Fe registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent: As we've commented of late crime and homelessness in Santa Fe are starting to remind us of how ABQs problems accelerated with the same issues and contue to challenge the city today. Garcia can't wave a magic wand but as a pragmatic centrist with a masters in public administration, he said he plans to restore stable management to the city which has he says has been hampered under Webber. His mantra on improving basic city services is apparently catching fire. On homelessness he says he would like to pursue a plan that is similar to ABQ's Gateway Center where a variety of services are offered to assist people start anew rather than simply providing temporary shelters. The front running Garcia is not without baggage. He has developed a reputation for confrontation over unity and he has bailed on some key council votes on key issues like crime. But overall he projects confidence and competence and most important, he is not a woke progressive like Webber who after eight years has worn out his welcome. That Garcia and Trujillo are the two candidates who poll the best also may speak to a yearning by City Different voters to have a native son with deep roots in the community take the helm. Garcia is not a businessman, his career has been in the nonprofit world, but he is fond of saying running a city is not a business and points to Webber's experience as a wealthy entrepreneur in administering the city and coming up short. He gives the mayor's performance an F minus. MLG recently endorsed her old friend Joanne Vigil Coppler for mayor but that is seen as a personal nod and having little impact on the race. For Garcia, who was also ahead in the only other public poll released over the summer, now needs to avoid a foot-in-the-mouth moment, take his positive numbers and steer to victory. For the challengers the heavy guns must be fired to slow his march but with no big money poised to do that, a win could be in store for the 45 year old Garcia. Here is video of a recent in-depth interview done with Garcia. American Strategies says it uses in-person telephoning, online sampling and text messaging to compile their surveys. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. Wednesday, September 24, 2025Dem Light Guv Race Would Be A Slugfest If SOS Joins Land Commissioner In Contest; Stephanie Answers Maggie's Tease With Name Endorsement, Plus: Udall And Kenny Thomas Pop Into Guv Race
State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard has been in the race since March and is of no mind to end her political career at the hands of the SOS. The two Dem titans both boast good name ID and political savvy. The race would be fierce. Even without a formal entry Toulouse Oliver has rattled Garcia Richard's cage. As soon as MTO publicly dangled her possible run the twice elected land commissioner rolled out an endorsement from former Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman seemingly designed to send MTO a message not to get in. Actor Jane Fonda, a fave of progressives and Anglo boomer women, is also backing Garcia Richard. She once lived here and her former husband, Ted Turner, has extensive state land holdings. MTO is a former two term Bernalillo County Clerk and a twice elected Secretary of State who terms out at the end of 2026. Her base is the biggest voting county in the state and she may believe it gives her the edge in a primary. She did, however, lose statewide in 2014 when she lost the SOS race to Republican Dianna Duran. If this match-up happens, it could be a fight to the political death. Both would be so bloodied by the end that recovering from defeat would be improbable. THREE WAY RACE  Either Garcia Richard or Toulouse Oliver could handle the sparse duties of lieutenant governor but if they think it could be the gateway to being elected Governor, history is a harsh reminder. No #2 in modern state history has gone up that ladder. Both of them are long-term public employees and getting a four year gig (or eight) would get them closer to the years they need to enhance their PERA checks. Speaking of endorsements, former US Senator Tom Udall, 77, wants a fellow progressive to advance to the governorship so he has come out for Deb Haaland. He did so on the very day that that Haaland opponent Sam Bregman was announcing his 189 page Blueprint for New Mexico and when Bregman also came with a name endorsement. Basketball legend Kenny Thomas gave him the nod. The two endorsements restate the obvious in the Guv campaign--Haaland is the fave of most women and progressives while Bregman and Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima are more favored by men and centrists. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Tuesday, September 23, 2025Dem Guv Candidate Bregman Supports Bill To Let Out Of State Doctors And Other Healthcare Workers Practice Here; Trial Lawyers May Be Softening Opposition But MLG Says No Deal Struck With Key Dem Senators To Put It On Special Session Agenda The question surfaced again after '26 Dem Guv candidate Sam Bregman last week released his Blueprint for New Mexico. He said, if elected, he would support the state adopting interstate health compacts that would allow doctors and other medical practitioners outside New Mexico to see patients here. Bregman is now the BernCo District Attorney, but previously he was a high-profile trial lawyer. His support for the state signing on to the compacts comes amid talk that the NM Trial Lawyers Association, many of whose members support a PAC to fight medical malpractice reforms, apparently is no longer opposed to the compacts. That could make the moment ripe for Gov. Lujan Grisham to get the proposal before the special session of the legislature that she has called for October 1. MLG said Monday she would put the issue on the special session agenda if legislative leadership agreed but they don't. That kicks it to the regular session in January. Here is video of her statement. The trial lawyers have been concerned that compacts shields the commissions running them from lawsuits, which endangers accountability. Their critics say they are more worried about losing their shot at big settlements. 43 other sates have already signed off on various compacts. ROUNDHOUSE STALL State Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes, a trial attorney, has been adamant in his opposition to the compacts and has stalled them after they cleared the House unanimously. He teamed with fellow trial attorney and ABQ Dem Senator Katy Duhigg to pile on amendments. At the last session 10 medical compacts were considered that would have opened the state's doors to doctors, psychologists, physical and occupational therapists, dentists and more. Cervantes did not respond to an inquiry to determine if his stance has changed. Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth, also a trial attorney, said the issue should wait until January: We need the time to examine how interstate compacts would interact with New Mexico’s existing laws and ensure that any changes truly serve the long-term interests of providers and patients. Cervantes later came with this comment:  The state has taken measures to allow more out of state physicians access but compact proponents say it is nowhere near enough and that it is long overdue for the state to join the Interstate Medical Licensure Compact that allows medical practitioners licensed in other states to practice here. The doctor shortage is most severe in rural areas. The compacts, supporters say, could see border communities attract more doctors to provide care. Examples include doctors going from Durango to Farmington and from El Paso to Las Cruces. Trial lawyers have also been fighting against medical malpractice insurance reforms. They may be willing to offer the compacts as a compromise as their standing with the public comes under pressure. At least that's the buzz that is building. But the Governor and Cervantes working together seems critical to pushing the compacts over the line, As for malpractice reform, in his blueprint Bregman does not embrace it, saying there is "no silver bullet" for the doctor shortage. However, he does propose tax credits for physicians facing escalating insurance premiums for malpractice coverage. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Monday, September 22, 2025First Scientific Poll Coming In ABQ Mayoral Race; Sunday Release Slated As Keller Challengers Still Scurry For Funds And Recognition, Plus: Massive Project Jupiter At State Border Wins Approval
Longtime Research and Polling President Brian Sanderoff confirms the poll will be out Sunday, Sept. 28. That's the good news. The bad news is it may be the only one. "Just one poll is planned at this time." He said. For those new to New Mexico and polling here, Sanderoff, 71, has been polling the state for the Journal for 40 years. Pundit Nate Silver's 2025 ratings of 27 national polling firms ranks Research and Polling as the fourth most accurate in the nation. That's heady territory for a New Mexico based business. The firm relies on in-person phone calls to prospective voters, the most accurate method of determining how they may vote. A scientific poll with a randomized and representative sample, rigorous methodology, and statistical weighting for accuracy--is a specialized service. There are not many firms around anymore that do it, with more reliance on the Internet for surveys. The personal phone polling is expensive with cost of a basic city survey estimated to easily reach $30,000 and more as the poll adds questions. As the newspaper industry has been downsized the Journal polls have been less frequent than past election cycles but at least one is conducted for the major elections and usually includes a list of issues that are covered over a week. That can't be easy but the paper, to their credit and their readers' benefit, have stayed the course. Sanderoff is also a political analyst for KOAT-TV but these days politics is only a small part of his company's business which also works for a wide variety of major corporate and government entities. STATE OF THE RACE
The Journal survey should pinpoint that support demographically and also indicate who is most likely to get into a run-off with Keller, if the Mayor fails to reach the 50 percent mark but does come in first or second. Whatever the poll shows, it will be difficult for the challengers to act upon the results. All of them are under-financed. Keller is now spending over $750,000 he qualified for under public financing and an outside PAC supporting him had $120,000 in cash at last report. Republican Darren White and Democrat Louie Sanchez, who has donated a hefty $150,000 in personal funds to his campaign, are both up with radio ads. Keller's campaign has signs dotting front yards around the city and Alex Uballez has a few as well. But most of the campaign has been taking place on social media which is a shot in the dark when it comes to reaching the most likely voters. That will now begin to change with paid media (and negative campaigning) becoming more noticeable. Early voting at the County Clerk's Annex begins October 7. That is also when absentee ballots will be mailed to city voters already on the list. To get an absentee ballot (the deadline to request is Oct. 21) info is here. In-person citywide voting begins Oct. 18. Election Day is November 4. History says well over half the vote will be cast before then. As for TV debates, none have been publicly announced. If any are held and all seven candidates attend, it would be hard for any of them to get an advantage. Often the stations pass on doing debates with such a large field or confine it to digital platforms. THE FORUMS  That will change with forums now scheduled where all or most of the candidates are expected to attend and which should generate media coverage. September 30--The business group NM NAIOP will host the candidates at the ABQ Sheraton Uptown, an event that is usually well-attended and reported on. Journal editor Jay Newton-Small will moderate. October 7--Bike ABQ & Strong Towns will conduct a a mayoral forum at 6 p.m. at the First Congregational United Church of Christ. October 16--The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors® (GAAR) conduct their mayoral forum at 9 a.m at the GAAR Event Center. Tickets are available via the link. JUPITER A GO  Opposition has centered on energy and water issues and tax incentives seen as too generous. But at a tense public meeting the Commission approved the bonds on a 4-1 vote, citing the 750 permanent jobs that the project is predicted to generate as well as a significant increase to the tax base of the poverty-stricken region. The money would be invested over a 30 year period with a $50 billion pop at the beginning. Austin-based BorderPlex Digital Assets is the company making the investment. They will not pay property taxes on the 1,400-acre campus and instead pay the county $360 million over 30 years--$12 million annually. AI developer STACK Infrastructure, owned by private equity firm Blue Owl Capital is a partner with BorderPlex. The enormous numbers involved are representative of the massive AI investment taking place in the nation. Jupiter will have four hyperscale buildings designed for high-density computing, capable of housing thousands of servers for big tech clients.
The BorderPlex Digital leadership team includes former NM Economic Development Secretary Alicia Keyes, working in government affairs, and George P. Bush, a nephew of former President George W. Bush, consulting on strategy. MLG has given the project her full support as has Dona Ana state Rep. Nathan Small, chair of the House Appropriations Committee. The company's NM lobbyist is Vanessa Alarid. Las Cruces area Dem state Reps. Angelica Rubio and Micaela Lara Cadena have opposed Jupiter along with state Sen. Bill Soules. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. |
 
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