New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Greg Payne, former ABQ city councilor, Santa Fe attorney and longtime analyst for this corner, previously said Mayor Tim Keller would fall short of 50 percent of the vote and face a runoff election with former BernCo Sheriff Darren White. But in his reassessment Payne tells us:

I didn't believe this before, but I think Keller has a shot at avoiding the runoff. It' about the turnout breaking his way. Keller hasn't made any serious missteps.

Crime, drugs, homelessness and a low wage economy remain. Voters just don't see an alternative in the field of candidates trying to replace Keller and his Administration. So, with a collective shrug by a majority of 'Burque voters, Keller will likely win a third term.

Dem consultant David Alcon is sticking by his initial prediction that Keller hits the 50 mark, despite there being six candidates in the field and Keller sporting an approval rating in the Sept. ABQ Journal poll of 42 percent.

I have seen nothing during the campaign that threatens him from having a strong finish and I think the campaign has raised his approval rating. That should broaden his reach and get him a majority Election Night. It will be close.

Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff said upon the release of his Journal poll that he believes there will be a runoff between the top two candidates but did not predict an order of finish. The paper is not doing a follow-up poll.

APD watchdog and retired police Sergeant Dan Klein has for years written for news outlets about the extensive troubles the department has had under several mayors. But putting on his political analyst hat, he writes:

No run off. Keller takes it in the first round. I think it will be a low turnout and that will aid Keller getting 50%. We are a majority Democratic city with a progressive lean. The only people I know who are fired up about this election are Dems who what to make a statement against Trump domestic policies. That plus no no opposition candidate has lit a fire.

Longtime Republican consultant Bob Cornelius is more optimistic for Keller's opposition, saying the issue is not keeping Keller below 50 percent---but 40:

Keller finishes in first for sure and the more I watch it seems like the others are fading, not gaining. Darren is the only likely run-off competitor. The question is can they keep Keller under 40%? As of now I have it Keller--43 percent, White, 26, Sanchez, 13, Uballez, 10, Armijo, 5, Varela, 2 and Chavez 1 percent.

Daniel Chavez has withdrawn from the race but his name will appear on the ballot because his withdrawal came past the removal deadline.

Finally, Mayor Keller said in an interview week that he believed there would be a run off election December 9. He continues to make clear his favorite opponent would be White. His campaign tells supporters:

As expected, the Mayor is taking hits from every direction--five opponents and their PACs combined. But through it all, Tim Keller has. . . shown up, stood firm for what’s right, and made his case for another four years. . . Both public polls and political observers point to what we’ve known all along--this race will come down to Mayor Tim Keller and Republican Darren White.

The suspense will end next Tuesday, November 4. We'll have all the election results and expert analysis on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org beginning at 6:30 p.m.

As we previously reported, Republicans are now so lost in the wilderness that many of them are backing conservative Democratic City Councilor Louie Sanchez over Darren White.

Sanchez is embracing them as he attacks White on the socials for twice receiving votes of no confidence from those he was leading--once by state police officers when he was secretary of the NM Department of Public Safety in 1999 and another by ABQ police officers when he was the ABQ Public Safety Director in 2011.

It was the combative administration of GOP Gov. Susana Martinez (2011-'19) that White was so closely associated with that divided the GOP so deeply that the rift persists to this day and is at the root of the GOP's inability to unify and get on with winning elections.

Councilor Sanchez stumbled over his answer about Sanctuary Cities during the KOAT debate and to White's benefit. But in the final stretch the desperation is growing among conservatives and the disdain for White intensifying among his enemies.

That includes these R's who are supporting Dem Sanchez: Former ABQ mayoral candidate Michelle Garcia Holmes, business leader Carla Sonntag, former NM GOP Chairmen Ryan Cangliosi and Harvey Yates, Jr.; attorney and former BernCo GOP Chirman Robert Aragon and his wife Peggy Aragon, a former GOP member of the ABQ School Board; prominent NM businessman Tom Tinnin, a former state fair commissioner and Board of Finance member who clashed with Gov. Martinez and former GOP BernCo Chairman John Rockwell.

It is now conceivable that Sanchez could draw a significant share of the Republican vote and challenge the former sheriff for second place and a spot in a run-off election with Keller, and none of our experts (see below) is changing their prediction that White will be #2.

Another possible drag on White, albeit a minor one, is the candidacy of Republican Eddie Varela. The retired fire chief is throwing out the red meat and attracting votes that might normally go to White.

This is about as good as it gets for Dem Mayor Keller, who is seeking a third term but shadowed by that low 42 percent approval rating.

True to form Keller is running a professional campaign. His five opponents lack the funds to effectively compete and in the case of White and Sanchez have turned on each other.

The Mayor still has a mountain to climb to get to 50 percent in the Nov. 4 vote and avoid a run-off with the second place finisher. But if Keller wins the first round by double-digits, the run-off will likely be a formality and an election that draws less interest.

Unlike White, Sanchez could count on support from GOP money centers including former NMGOP Chairman and oil tycoon Harvey Yates, Jr. White could not.

Sanchez has a base of conservative/moderate Hispanic working class voters in his Westside District One council seat. If he could appeal to Hispanics citywide and combine that with solid GOP support, he could be a threat. We will get a test of that theory in the first round Election Night.

Another talking point Sanchez supporters tout is his long service as an APD officer, giving him crime-fighting credentials which along with homelessness is the top campaign issue.

On the down side Sanchez paints with a broad brush. He has never been one for the details of city policy or government management. His polling at 6 percent in the Journal survey is a testament to his inability to break through with the public even though he had four years to do so.

His rhetorical bravado does not help him convince voters that he has the depth to command a city work force of some 6,000 and Republican tag he is getting comes with an enormous political price in a run-off--the unpopularity of that party in the Dem dominated city and Donald Trump.

Still, while the consultants and other experts appear unanimous that White can't defeat Keller, there is more wiggle room for Sanchez. In Campaign '25 it's the fight for second that is now providing the drama.

We have seen a seismic shift since the last debate where undecideds are disappearing and support for Alex is skyrocketing. Whether it's because Keller continues to be caught in his own fact-checks, voters see Darren White is rich in complaints and bankrupt in solutions beyond his out-dated fake tough on crime playbook, or because the prospect of a run-off has voters realizing they're choosing who proceeds to the next round, not who will be the next mayor, the Uballez chorus keeps getting louder.

Albuquerque wants a candidate who doesn't just wave off and dismiss nearly a dozen retaliation cases and exposure to cancer-causing asbestos as standard affairs for cities. And they don't want to see the city budget sent down the drain on overtime, lawsuits, and the ineffective policies guaranteed under a Darren White administration. Uballez continues to be the adult in the room and the candidate with solutions. That's why everything is moving in his favor.

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

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Monday, October 27, 2025

Political Pros Update Their ABQ Mayoral Election Predictions And There's Some Changes, Plus: GOP Support Raises Some Hope For Dem Louie Sanchez For Second Place, Plus: Uballez Tries To Stay In It; Says He's "Adult In The Room,"

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