Monday, September 29, 2025A Dissatsified City Is Also Dissatisfied With Mayoral Choices; Journal Poll Shows Undecided Voters Exceptionally High; Keller Leads But Draws Just 29 Percent As His Foes Lag Far Behind; Election '25 News And Analysis Is Up Next
A city dissatisfied with the direction it's going in is also dissatisfied with the choices to lead the city for the next four years. The dreary details are revealed in the ABQ Journal poll of the November 4 mayoral race, showing none of the seven candidates could even manage 30 percent of the vote. Also, in what appears to be an historic high for this stage of a mayoral campaign, 37 percent of likely voters polled describe themselves as undecided. Granted, there hasn't been much of a campaign and the race should grow more heated In October but no one is expecting fireworks. Mayor Tim Keller, seeking an unprecedented third consecutive four year term, is in a fight with himself. His low approval ratings are haunting him as Keller only pulls 29 percent of the vote despite having nearly universal name ID. The problem is illustrated with this social media reaction to the poll from Brett Hendrickson: Keller has had 8 years to clean up the city and now wants another 4 years. Where is the logic in giving him another term? I don’t trust polling. Driving down Central, Zuni, and Menaul is enough for anyone to want change. Keller's campaign said of the poll: Our campaign is strong, our message is resonating, and Mayor Tim Keller is in the lead. In a crowded field of seven, Tim is the clear frontrunner. . . 37% of voters are still undecided. That means this race is far from over. And with Darren White — a Trump lackey who represents a dangerous, backwards vision for Albuquerque — in second place, it’s clear what’s at stake. The landscape still points to Democrat Keller coming in first but getting 50 percent of the vote in order to avoid a run-off election with probable second place finisher Darren White remains a steep climb. White, however, is worse off. The former sheriff's 16 percent support is half of what the main GOP candidate in the contest could expect at this point. That he is nowhere close to that level speaks to the high pile of negative baggage he's accumulated with fellow Republicans during his time in the public eye including his controversial move into the legal marijuana business That makes any Keller-White run-off already looking like a fait accompli for the incumbent.
Mayling Armijo, Daniel Chavez and Eddie Varela are polling at one or two percent. The Journal showed those levels of support among Dems, Republicans and indys. That makes the trio nonfactors in the contest. Progressive former US Attorney Alex Uballez falls flat, garnering a mere 6 percent of the vote. He now has to determine how fluid the electorate is, if he can make a major move and muster the necessary money. A tough position but still a lingering threat if something big should happen. His campaign said of the survey: This election will be decided by the 37% of likely voters who are still undecided and the unlikely voters we recruit into the project of democracy. Predictably, the top two candidates currently are the incumbent with only 29% support and Darren White with only 16% support. . .Any poll done this far out from the election is more a measure of name recognition than it is support. Alex’s main competition in this race is name recognition, nothing else. For now Trump does not appear to be strongly motivating the progressive vote. Keller, who gets 43 percent Democratic support in the survey, will work to change that as will Uballez. MONEY MATTERS The Mayor is the only candidate who can really do much of anything in the final stretch because he is the only hopeful with any significant money. He was the only one to qualify for over $750,000 in public financing when the others failed. They then failed to raise money from a public they have yet to impress. As of September 8 Keller had $654,000 in public financing still left to spend and an outside PAC supporting his candidacy reported $120,000 in cash. That's $774,000 of messaging power versus White's $130,000 in cash; Sanchez's $149K and $116,000 for Uballez. The Journal poll could make raising additional money to take on Keller even more difficult. Keller will likely be the only candidate with a significant TV ad campaign. The vast majority of voters in a mayoral race are well over 50 and watch local TV news stations and their network programming. Younger voters, much less likely to vote, are not big TV watchers but are glued to social media. The lack of enthusiasm or even the disdain for the mayoral field drew this comment from longtime political analyst and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne: After this poll Keller ought to change his campaign slogan to "Better the Devil You Know." GETTING TO 50
Here is a closer look at that extraordinary 37 percent of voters who say they are still undecided. When those undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning toward, most still said they were not sure. But with those who did express a “lean” factored in, Keller’s support in the survey rose to 35%, with White’s support at roughly 19%. Even after the "leans" are accounted for 29 percent of voters remain undecided. That signals a low voter turnout, well below the 120,000 who voted for mayor in 2021. That favors Keller's political machine which is well-financed and can target the most likely voters with expensive mail and TV. Ordinarily most analysts would not entertain the thought of having no run-off election in a seven candidate field but the massive financial mismatch and the weakness of the opposing campaigns still keeps some hope alive in the Keller camp that they can get him to an outright majority. The Journal has Keller’s approval rating at 42%, up about 10% from a couple of years ago so that also puts the 50% mark on the table. That may be the most suspenseful question going forward unless his challengers can somehow reverse course in roughly the month remaining on the '25 election calendar Th Journal polled 514 likely city voters Sept. 19-26. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. 96 percent of voters polled were reached by cell phone and 4 percent by landlines. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. |
 
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