A danger is that the intermittent chaos and shock caused by such events moves into the realm of something more permanent and menacing to the democracy.
So the expressions of sorrow and condemnation by the state's political class over the attempted assassination of former President Trump at a Saturday Pennsylvania rally were expected but no less welcome.
In the '24 NM contest laced with the most virulent symptoms of the divisiveness that afflicts today's politics, both hopefuls struck the right tone.
Former GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, challenging Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez who unseated her two years ago and who is a fervent Trump supporter, refrained from turning the tragedy into a blame game against the Democrats and Biden as did some of her Republican colleagues:
I
am praying for President Trump and his family. No one will divide this
nation as long as we are united under God and our freedoms secured. We
will persevere and those responsible will be held to account for their
cowardly act.
Vasquez cast a wide net in his reaction, avoiding any temptation to inflame the moment:
Gun violence has no place on our streets, in politics or in the democratic discourse. As information continues to unfold, let me be clear that I strongly condemn acts of violence against anyone, regardless of political party. I wish President Trump a safe & speedy recovery as well as anyone involved in this incident.
Herrell and Vasquez could not be more different in their personalities. The southern congressional district is also like night and day--half rural
and half city; half pro-Trump and half pro-Biden. Thankfully the candidates
turned down the temperature in their reaction to the deadly weekend violence. Keeping it turned down is incumbent on them as they venture into an
already heated battle in the months ahead.
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| Heinrich & Monahan |
In the coming days, I urge all of us to engage in political conversations with a renewed sense of respect and understanding. We have the power to change the tone of our national discourse. Let us lead by example in our conversations, both online and offline. Now, more than ever, we must remember that our political opponents are not our enemies. They are fellow Americans, with their own hopes, fears, and dreams for this country. Our democracy depends on our ability to disagree without demonizing one another.
The hope is that such statements resonate and that future generations are able to enjoy the benefits of this great democracy and not witness its demise.
WARP SPEED POLITICS
Politics operates at warp speed these days. Uncertainty seems the only certainty and solid predictions of the future are often folly and the terrain of the arrogant. So, with those yellow flags of caution waving we take a look at the possible ramifications on the upcoming election (with the assistance of our Senior Alligators) caused by the attack on former President Trump.
Most of those we spoke with were humble enough to admit they are waiting for the polls to give them some guidance as the aftershocks from Saturday reverberate.
A polling bump for Trump is expected by most of our observers--at least for a couple of weeks--considering the rally around the flag tendency in moments of national crisis as well as from the GOP national convention that kicks off today.
But there are structural components to state politics that are not given to crumbling and that underpin the election even in the aftermath of this latest political earthquake. Let's take a look:
While GOP voters may become more enthusiastic to vote for their presidential nominee, Democrats could be galvanized by raw fear as speculation rains down on them that New Mexico might vote for Trump.
The absence of a well-oiled Republican machine is a major impediment for them to take advantage of any change in the environment that could attract conservative Dems and independents. One of our Dem Senior Gators points out that Republicans have basically been banished from the state. There is no infrastructure for them to generate a comprehensive campaign.
Also, national chatter that New Mexico could be in play for the GOP may be raising fears among rank and file Democrats but it is not being matched by most knowledgeable and experienced professionals here who note that Democrats far outnumber Republicans and after all these years are not suddenly going to become Trump voters.
The question arises of whose opinion changes because of this tragic event? In New Mexico there is a cemented vision between pro and anti Trump voters. There are few undecided. That makes for slight ticks up and down in the polling but not large shifts.
--The long-shot GOP play, according to former state legislator and longtime political consultant Greg Payne, is a huge burst of enthusiasm among Trump supporters and a substantial drop in Democratic turnout.
The Biden camp said before the shooting say they will continue to follow a "let the chips fall where they may" strategy for our state. They believe that if New Mexico were somehow to get in play it would mean the race is already lost in the key battleground states where they will be concentrating their efforts.
HEINRICH VS. DOMENICI
In the US senate race Nella Domenici remains in a tough spot, argues analyst Payne.
She's not running the type of campaign that could take maximum advantage of a jump in Trump's support. She has said she is not seeking his endorsement or offering hers to his candidacy. That's in addition to not saying whether she will vote for him. Now seems the time for her to pivot to a more friendly Trump stance and have less concentration on her father's service as a US senator.
Heinrich has a good first month, thanks to Domenici not attacking him and forcing him to spend money early. His traditionally cautious approach is not yet being upset. Domenici will have to do something to force him to move out of his comfort zone.
THE SPECIAL
The problem is the Governor getting late momentum on the short list of bills she has proposed aimed at curbing the state's stubbornly high crime rate. After weeks of wrangling with key lawmakers with little success, that opportunity may have passed.
A key House committee chair, Rep. Christine Chandler of Los Alamos, is warning that two of the top measures being pushed by the Governor may have to wait until the next regular legislative session in January:
. . . She’s not sure that criminal competency and civil commitment can be addressed within the limited time frame of a special session. The criminal competency legislation doesn’t have a “strong nexus” to reducing crime rates, she said, representing about 4% of criminal cases.
She called current competency laws “out of date” and “inadequate.”
“But they’re complicated issues. When you’re talking about committing someone with a mental health issue, that’s a big deal. That is something you don’t do lightly.”
MLG has been a leader on gun violence throughout her career but the sole gun bill for the special is to extend prison time for felons caught using a gun committing a crime. That would seem to have bipartisan support and perhaps could be bundled with others that are not controversial and salvage the session from an ugly breakdown.
While MLG has been criticized for breaking tradition and not brokering a deal with lawmakers before calling the special (at least not yet), a coalition of progressives asking her to cancel the session because her proposals infringe on liberties, also share blame for the stand-off. As one of our Alligators put it:
Joe, the progressives say don't bother. Just stay home. That's because they have no solutions, only criticism of the Governor who is at least trying.
Well, the session will certainly be more interesting now--if not more productive.
Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024