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Monday, October 03, 2022

Split Decision: Ronchetti Takes Crime And MLG Corners Abortion In First TV Guv Debate, Plus: More From The Face-Off; Lost Opportunities And The Optics Watch

The first of two televised gubernatorial debates was scheduled for one hour but in reality it was over after 25 minutes. That's the amount of time it took to dispose of crime and abortion, the two major topics that are shaping voter opinion in the '22 campaign. 

(Full debate here.) 

On crime Republican Mark Ronchetti took the win. And how could he not? ABQ has been in an ongoing crime wave for years and it only seems to worsen. 

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham tried to get on offense, taking note of the increased spending for public safety under her watch but Ronchetti had the evidence on the ground on his side and the segment was a layup for him.

Crime kicked off the first and most watched portion of the KOB debate, which was also broadcast on ABQ public radio KANW-FM, and was a bonus for the challenger. 

His retort to the Governor when she chided him for never visiting the Roundhouse and thus not understanding the crime problem, had him giving this rejoinder:

Are you kidding me? Everybody in Albuquerque lives it. We live it — we live the crime everyday. You don’t have to go to the Roundhouse.

But on abortion the tables were turned and MLG made a series of three point baskets that Ronchetti could not block. In this case the evidence was on her side as Ronchetti has been sidetracked by confusion over just what he believes.

She effectively pooh-poohed his effort to avoid a decision by proposing a constitutional amendment that would have voters decide the matter. She also noted his changing positions with an indirect reference to what could be the key moment of the campaign--the assertion by ABQ Pastor Steve Smothermon that Ronchetti told him he was was in fact against all abortions, an assertion Smothermon later tried to walk back. 

MLG's one-liner that the former TV weatherman has changed positions on abortion "more than the weather" was the cherry on the sundae.  

So Ronchetti is carrying the anti-crime crowd and MLG is walking away with abortion rights. Friday night did not appear to change much as no major mistakes were made. The Dem contender entered the fray with a lead of eight points in the average of the latest three public polls, but one of those surveys may be an outlier with Ronchetti losing to her by 12. 

The betting crowd sees the contest four to six points in MLG's favor going into the heat of the battle this month. 

The Republicans have to bear down harder on the incumbent and Dems need their ground game running on all cylinders. 

WINNER'S CIRCLE

Longtime Dem consultant David Alcon comes with this debate analysis:

The Governor kept a steady hand and promoted her ability to govern. Ronchetti tangoed and danced around abortion issues with a constitutional amendment. Democrats and independents seem firm on upholding abortion. The governor seemed in control and Ronchetti got caught up on abortion although he tried to lead on crime. Ronchetti’s economic relief plan is a repeat of MLG’s previous tax relief. MLG failed to talk about her many capital projects. The Governor won the debate and managed to keep Ronchetti from scoring any major points. 

The state GOP offered this:

Ronchetti provided specifics and offered a clear vision for the state. He exposed Lujan Grisham’s poor record, one that's hurt New Mexicans and their families. Ronchetti showed how Lujan Grisham’s policies have cost jobs, lost businesses, raised taxes and destroyed New Mexico's economy. . . Ronchetti also pointed out that the big government surpluses we have been experiencing are not helping average New Mexicans. The Governor seemed flustered, lost at times, and had difficulty defending her record, as Ronchetti continued to display how her progressive policies have devastated the state.

Fair points except the Governor did not appear "flustered." Sometimes annoyed? Yes. But she never lost command of the topics and appear poised. If she had not we would have scored the debate for the challenger, not the draw that it mostly turned out to be.

LOST OPPORTUNITIES

Ronchetti minimized the tax and economic relief measures approved under Lujan Grisham, citing rising prices and asking the audience, "do you feel it?" MLG did mention the large rebates (up to $1500 per household) that went out to citizens this summer but she did not put a face on it by citing specific examples of someone who paid their rent, made their car payment or received medical aid because of those rebates. 

She also missed an opportunity on Social Security. Her elimination of the state tax on SS recipients making less than $100,000 a year is indeed going to be "felt" come tax time and celebrated by the mostly older 55 audience that comprised the TV debate audience Friday night.

When asked about the dry subject of water, couldn't MLG connect with the Hispanic north by mentioning the importance of the acequias as Sen. Ben Ray Lujan and Rep. Leger Fernandez often do and effectively?

Ronchetti has thrown few bones to Democrats during this campaign and he lost a chance at the TV face-off. His rejection of a constitutional amendment that will be decided November 8 and that would allow funds from the $26 billion Land Grant Permanent School Fund to be invested in early childhood education is polling off the charts. Even a majority of Republicans are supportive and even one of Ronchetti's GOP primary opponents, Rep. Rebecca Dow, came out in support. Ronchetti needs Democrats and Hispanics. Republican boilerplate will only get you so far. 

OPTICS WATCH 

On social media it wasn't what was said that grabbed the audience. There were an abundance of comments about the grimacing and other facial gestures made throughout the debate by Ronchetti. That behavior was a bit of a surprise considering his broadcasting background. Either her couldn't help himself or felt it would be helpful to put a public face on his discontent as MLG answered questions. Among those reacting was ABQ Dem state Senator Harold Pope:

The facial expressions, sarcasm, dismissive tone coming from Ronchetti tonight alone shows he is not fit to be the Governor of New Mexico! We need someone with more professionalism and respect for the position.

On the flip side came the Ronchetti camp:

Who wouldn't make faces when everything MLG gaslighted about her record was absurd! We're 51st in education, 2nd in violent crime, and near the bottom in unemployment rate and she wants another chance?!?! 

PEANUT GALLERY 

Here's more on the debate from the peanut gallery on social media: 

Please New Mexico, don't make me listen to Ronchetti for the next 4 years. 

@MartyChavez--Ronchetti again tried to cover up his abortion position, denied climate change and demonstrated his unfitness for office at the debates.

30 yrs experience for MLG, violent crime all time high. Keller (is) Mayor and ABQ is a violent cesspool. These two have the “experience” of consistent and total failure. I’ll take Ronchetti all day long.

Vinay Sabnis: The debate almost reminded me of an elderly classroom teacher trying to figure out how to hand out some suitable punishment to a punkish student.

Ronchetti did a fine job with the debate. Sadly he's fighting the history of a state that usually votes for Dems regardless how bad things are. 

Mark Ronchetti puts ketchup on his enchiladas.

Ketchup on his enchiladas? Is there video proof of this heresy? Say it isn't so, Mark. That alone would cost him 30 of the 33 counties in New Mexico. 

HERB DENISH

Herb Denish has died.

He was a significant behind the scenes power player as a lobbyist and consultant for major land developers such as the ABQ Garcia automotive family and others. He was also a political guiding light for his wife, former Lt. Governor Diane Denish. 

Friends report he was recently injured in an auto accident at the intersection of Carlisle and Indian School in ABQ and later died of his injuries. 

ABQ attorney Bob McNeill, a longtime friend of Denish, said:

He was very smart, politically sharp, incredibly astute and an effective advocate for his many clients. He was of enormous help to Diane during her political career. Herb was also fun to be around. We shared the same birthday and I and many others will deeply miss him. 

Denish, who was also an urban planner, appeared often on behalf of his clients before the ABQ City Council and other government entities. Otherwise, he kept a low-profile but did serve as chairman of the NM Arts Commission in the Richardson/Denish administration. 

In 2010 when his wife was the Dem nominee for Governor the unwanted spotlight fell on him. Republican candidate Susana Martinez accused him in a TV spot of using his influence to get "special tax deals" for the owner of the ABQ land development company Mesa Del Sol. The Denish campaign responded that Denish lobbied for the company before the city, not the state. Factcheck.org found the attack to be wanting. 

Herb Denish was 79.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022