Latest Money Reports: Ronchetti Reports Plenty Of Cash But The Message Remains The Problem, Plus: SOS Race Features Election Denier Vs Incumbent, And: Cash Count In Key State House Races For Final Stretch

Mark Ronchetti has raised over $7.8 million since announcing his candidacy for governor, according to the latest finance reports filed Tuesday, but all that cash and more can't undo the costly damage inflicted on him from a fateful meeting he conducted this summer with ABQ Pastor Steve Smothermon. 

If the latest polls are to be believed, Ronchetti, down by 9 points in the polling averages, is losing the gubernatorial race handily and in large part because of his bungled messaging over abortion which this year ranks as a top voter concern. 

At that meeting to be remembered, Smothermon said Ronchetti told him he wanted to end all abortion but couldn't say so publicly or he would lose the election. Ronchetti denied it but the bell was rung.

The GOP contender is well-positioned to buy all the ad time he can find in the final weeks of the campaign. He reports having $2.49 million in cash on hand as of October 3. That beats MLG's cash on hand of $1.68 million and he also beat her in fund-raising for the period Sept. 6 to October 3 by $300,000. 

But she has raised the record breaking sum of $11.15 million since the start of the campaign and national media report Ronchetti is only slightly outspending MLG on the airwaves in the final month. 

Then there's the outside special interest money--much more of which appears to be coming in on the Democrat's side and prompted in large part by his abortion flub. 

But if Ronchetti has excelled at anything during this campaign, it is raising money. If only he could buy back that meeting with Smotherman. 

Things may have looked differently for MLG at this point--if there had been no US Supreme Court ruling overturning abortion rights and no Ronchetti-Smothermon sit down. 

Money, as the saying goes, is indeed "the mother's milk of politics" but serendipity will always have a ride on the roller coaster of La Politica. 

SOS CONTEST

Toulouse Oliver & Trujillo

In the race for secretary of state incumbent Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver reported spending $150,000 on TV time and production and had another $150,000 in cash on hand as of October 3. Her two 15 second spots are called Leadership and Light. Her campaign says they communicate. . .

. . . her administration’s robust record of strengthening campaign finance rules to fight corruption and make our politics more transparent, her swift and effective leadership combating election disinformation by providing voters with accurate & accessible information, and her indisputable record of honoring the will of New Mexico voters in each election. 

The SOS faces Republican Audrey Trujillo, a native of Santa Fe, who appeared to be a promising entrant until it became evident that she is an election denier. She has called Biden's 2020 win a "coup" and compared voting systems in the US to those in "any other communist country like Venezuela." 

It does not appear New Mexicans will be hearing those comments on their TV sets or many others from her. Trujillo reported just $33,000 in cash on hand as of October 3.

The SurveyUSA poll earlier this month had MTO at 47 percent and Trujillo at 32 percent.

Despite the election tumult of recent years NM elections have run smoothly under MTO's watch but not without challenges. Several counties have tried to withhold certification of the presidential results. Recently the SOS testified on Capitol Hill about the national threat to democratic elections.

Trujillo ran into trouble early when it was discovered her Twitter account linked Jews to vaccinations and mocked Mexicans. As we said, when she first announced her candidacy she looked promising.

If re-elected Toulouse Oliver could become the longest continuously-serving SOS in state history. She was elected in 2016 to fill out the unexpired term of Republican Dianna Duran who resigned in a corruption scandal. She was elected to a full term in 2018. If she serves another that would be a record continuous ten years in the office. But it's not the all-time record for service as SOS. We'll explain that on the Thursday blog.

EYES ON THE HOUSE 

The eyeballs are now eyeing key state House races looking for some drama in Campaign '22--and we look at some of them via those money reports. 

In that closely watched District 28 battle in the ABQ NE Heights, Republican Nicole Chavez reported $115,000 in cash on hand as of October 3, but Dem Pamelya Herndon had $154,000. The race of late is seen tilting toward Herndon, who would be the first Black woman elected to a NE Heights seat. But ethnic voting and how the abortion issue finally plays out keeps this one on the watch list. 

In nearby District 27 Dem Rep. Marian Matthews reports $109,000 in cash on hand. Republican Bob Godshall's report was not yet available but he has raised little and is relying on GOP PAC money to see him through. Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta believes this one stays with Matthews and that Herndon is also headed in the right direction. 

In House District 30 where Dem Rep. Natalie Figueroa is getting a stiff challenge from Republican Kurstin Johnson, Figueroa reported $105,000 in the bank for the final month. Johnson couldn't keep pace but still had $93,000 in cash, enough to force an upset if the messaging took hold, but this district has been a Dem keeper since Republican Nate Gentry left it in 2018.

In District 23 in Sandoval County where Dem Rep. Daymon Ely is retiring, Republican Alan Martinez reported $28,000 in cash on October 3. Democrat Ramon Montano reports $11,000, so neither are ringing the register hard. But the District has a 56 percent GOP performance rating in the last presidential race helping to boost Martinez. 

On ABQ's Westside in District 29 Dem Rep. Joy Garratt reported nearly $139,000 in cash as of Oct. 3. Republican Greg Cunningham had $70,000 for the final days plus outside GOP money. This one is lean Dem but where R's are playing the crime card heavily. 

Also on the Westside, in District 17 Dem Cynthia Borrego started slow on the money train but has picked up speed and reported she had over $87,000 in cash on hand for the final stretch. Ellis McMath her GOP opponent reported $18,000. Even with outside GOP help, Borrego's name ID will make this one difficult for the R's to pry loose. 

In District 68 in far NW Bernallio County, where Democrat Karen Bash is retiring, Dem Charlotte Little reported $79,000 in cash on hand while Republican Robert Moss had $45,000. Little has raised more, is spending more and appears in good shape.

In District 39 in the Silver City area in the SW, former Dem state Rep. Rudy Martinez has the rare chance of flipping a Republican held seat to the Dems. That's because the Dems already own 45 of the 70 House seats and there are few more to be had. Martinez reported $72,000 in cash on Oct. 3. The report of his foe, GOP Rep. Luis Terrazas, was not available late Monday. At last report he had $114,000 in cash. 

In Las Cruces in District 36 Dem Rep. Nathan Small is getting a challenge from Republican Kimberly Skaggs who reported spending $74,000 in the prior two months and had cash totaling $47,000 for the finish. But Small reported $126,000 in cash and that ought to close that deal in this lean Dem district.  

It''s clear that outgoing House Speaker Brian Egolf is finishing his tenure with a bang, ensuring that House Dems are amply funded. That still may not stop a loss of some seats given the lay of the land this cycle but it should prevent any disasters. 

FINAL DEBATE 

Tonight at 6:30 p.m. the second and final gubernatorial debate will air on KOAT. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022