Then There Were Three; Another Guv Poll Confirms MLG Lead; Analyzing The Trio Of Surveys And What They Tell Us, Plus: One Last Take On Stokes' UNM Lobbyist Pick

Then there were three. 

The third public poll in the '22 Guv race followed fast on the heels of the second and confirmed MLG's lead as did the first conducted last month. Taken together the surveys peg MLG as the favorite with the door still left ajar a bit for Republican Mark Ronchetti. 

The Emerson College survey for KRQE-TV conducted September 8 thru 11 of 1,000 "somewhat likely" or "very likely" voters says MLG is in the lead 48 to 43 with three percent choosing "others" and just 5 percent undecided. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. 

That poll follows the Tuesday release of the KOB-TV SurveyUSA conducted September 8 thru 12 that gave the Governor a substantial 12 point lead--48 to 36. 

The ABQ Journal survey, in the field August 19-25, put her ahead with 47 percent to Ronchetti's 40 percent. 

MLG's polling average in all three is 47.66 percent. Ronchetti's is 39.66. 

ANALYSIS AND CONTEXT

We asked veteran New Mexico independent political operative Steve Cabiedes for analysis. 

The Journal and the Emerson polls have it about where I believe it is. The SurveyUSA is a bit of an outlier when it comes to Ronchetti's weakness but I am still not seeing a path for him to win. He has pounded away at Lujan Grisham for three months but still has not closed the gap. What it will take to break out is unknown, if anything. The structural advantage any Democrat running for statewide office has is seen in all three polls. This is not 2010 when there was a more moderate tinge to the electorate and the state elected a Republican Governor. Dems, however, have to fine tune their get out the vote machine to avoid any unpleasant surprises. 

Ronchetti has not yet been able to surpass 43 percent in any of the public polling, near the base number for a Republican statewide hopeful, but MLG still has work to do to close the deal. The final weeks still matter.

Emerson pegs abortion as the #2 concern of voters they surveyed so the Dems have their marching orders. 

The poll says the economy still prevails as the top issue for voters and that tells Republicans where they need to go, in addition to their sharp attacks on MLG. 

Crime, Ronchetti's chief calling card of late, is named the fourth most important issue statewide. He is hoping it will matter more in big BernCo where the crime wave continues. 

The national environment on abortion appears to be helping Democrats here and President Biden's approval does not appear to be a major detriment. His Emerson approval rating is 47 percent and 47 percent disapprove. He carried the state by 10 points in 2020 and this survey for KRQE says if he faced Trump again in 2024 he would win here by six. 

TRAIL DUST

Voters have approved a constitutional amendment to abolish the powerful elected Public Regulation Commission (PRC) and switch to a commission with members appointed by the Governor. But Native Americans have enjoyed robust membership on the PRC and now a group of them is going to court to stop the amendment from taking effect. . .Mark Ronchetti has released an ad accusing MLG of mismanaging the Children, Youth, & Families Department. . . NM Dems point out that the Washington Post published an article "naming Mark Ronchetti as one of five notable Republicans from across the country who recently backtracked on abortion.". . .

PUELLE HANGOVER 

Garnett Stokes

It's said and done---Mayor Keller chief of staff Michael Puelle will be the new lobbyist for UNM, but that doesn't stop this insider from lamenting over the ethnic leadership of the state's largest university. 

The University of New Mexico’s new Director of Government and Community Relations, Mike Puelle, fits the profile of President Garnett Stokes' other top-level hires. He is Anglo and from out of state. The UNM Executive Vice President for Health Sciences is Douglas Ziedonis, UNM Chief of Staff is Terry Babbitt, the Senior Vice President for Finance and Administration is Teresa Costandinidis, the Provost is James Holloway and all are Anglo and from out of state. 

Hispanic New Mexicans are good enough to be office assistants and administrative assistants in the President’s Office, but not a member of leadership. I thought UNM stood for the University of New Mexico not the University IN New Mexico. Stokes needs to go, and I hope her replacement at least attempts to honor the diversity of our state. 

First they blasted Stokes for considering Republican and former state Rep. Conrad James for the lobbying post. Now they're grumbling over Puelle and Hispanic representation. But one supposes that's why Stokes gets the big bucks. Have a nice weekend, Garnett. . . or something. 

This is the home of New Mexico Politics. 

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.  

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022