Slipping Away: Three ABQ House Seats GOP Had Hopes For Look Good For Dems; Fund-Raising Key Factor As Well As Abortion, Plus: Howie On the Hustings

Rep. Dixon

There's a reason political pros expect Democrats in the 70 member state House to hold their own in the '22 election. Republicans are making little effort in two of three crucial ABQ NE Heights seats and in the third they are positioned to be outspent two to one.

The disappointing outlook in areas where the GOP once romped and was their hope for some sort of a comeback is deeply disappointing for the party that has not struggled like this since the 1970's when the joke was their elected officials could meet in a phone booth. 

Well, there are no phone booths anymore but the R's still don't need the La Fonda ballroom to hold a confab. They have no elected statewide officials and they are down to 24 of the 70 House members. (There is one independent).

The 45 Dems in the House even have reason to believe that against the odds they could add a seat or two to their overwhelming majority this year, and that takes us back to the NE Heights. 

In District 20 which includes affluent Four Hills freshman Dem Rep. Meredith Dixon donned a full suit of armor for the coming combat. State reports say she has raised the immense sum of $247,000 for a House re-election bid and started the month with $115,000 in cash. 

Her GOP opponent, retired Sandia Labs engineer Robert Salazar, is barely on the radar, raising $10K and having only $9K in the bank. Maybe Dixon can wear her armor for Halloween. 

There's a reason behind Dixon's big take. She's a professional fund-raiser, having done the job for Senator Tom Udall and the '08 presidential bid of Gov. Richardson. And she has a business--Blue Sky Advantages--that is involved in political fund-raising. 

It's not like the R's could not compete against Dixon. Redistricting has the partisan performance at just 50.5 percent Democratic. (She won 53.5 to 46.5 in '20).

But the number that really matters is the 11 to 1 lead Dixon has in cash. The GOP was not about to compete with that, not with an incumbent who has no major missteps on her record. 

THE TWO OTHERS

Rep. Herndon

We told you weeks ago about how the GOP's other great NE Heights hope--District 27 held by first term Democrat Rep. Marian Mathews--was all but shut down. And it stays that way today. Matthews has raised six figures and Bob Godshall, her R opponent, has been buried under it. 

And to think that this district for years was a stronghold of conservative GOP Rep. Larry Larranga. That really drives home how the Blue has spread in the state's largest city. 

The GOP is still hanging on in District 28 but Rep. Pameyla Herndon, appointed to the seat and seeking her first elected term, might turn the lights out early on her GOP opponent, Nicole Chavez. Dems have united behind her and she sported a 2 to 1 cash lead at the start of the month--$150,000 to $75,000. 

While Chavez is praised as a solid anti-crime candidate abortion and women's rights could be the reason she is falling behind as the national mood, according to pollsters, has a heavy influence on these down ballot races. 

Republican Kurstin Johnson has raised a boatload of money in her effort to take out Dem Rep. Natalie Figueroa but so has the District 30 NE Heights incumbent. But if the R's are going to make a play up there it appears it may have to be Johnson pulling a major upset. 

House Minority Leader Jim Townsend has been around long enough to not be a Gloomy Gus over the outlook, but he has to be wondering whether the political pendulum that is supposed to swing back and forth got stuck somewhere. 

MAILBAG

A reader lament:

Joe- I am wondering if we just have to get comfortable being at the bottom of the good lists and at the top of the bad lists. I am even trying to think about “settling” if we were in the middle, but we are not there. 

This is what I have found from your reporting and my research. 

--Highest unemployment in the nation.

--Last in education--performance, safety, community, investment, class size and attendance; 51st (District of Columbia beats us). 

--Rural homes without broadband access; highest in the nation at 42 percent.

--NM alcohol death rate is 53 per 100,000- highest in the country and over twice the national average. -----Ranked 50th for child wellbeing.

We hear you gentle reader. Much of what you wrote is what has kept us at this blog for nearly 20 years. 

TRAIL DUST

Lt. Gov. Morales

The state's lieutenant governor, campaigning out on the rural hustings, is being brought into the big city today to add his voice to the abortion debate. NM Dems say Howie Morales will be at a news conference with a group of women and will "speak to the punishment and criminalization that women in New Mexico would face under Mark Ronchetti’s proposed abortion ban."

MLG's problem attracting Hispanic males is well-known (although she did a pretty good job with her husband) and having Howie hanging around in the final weeks can't hurt. In fact, maybe the Guv can bring him a cup of Starbucks for helping out--if Manny doesn't mind. 

Meanwhile, the kids of Mark Ronchetti seemed to have disappeared from the media portion of the campaign, but the candidate has his wife Krysty working overtime. She appears in two of his key campaign ads--one about a home invasion she says the couple suffered (but happened many years ago) and another backing him on his proposal to have voters decide state abortion law. She does own a PR firm so if the workload gets too heavy, she can always bill him. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

Contact us at newsguy@yahoo.com to place your campaign advertising here. We welcome the opportunity to spread your message.

This is the home of New Mexico Politics. 

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.  

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022