Since we last met the two featured races have moved closer to the Democrats. Barring a major shake-up, election upsets will have to come from contested state House races further down the card.
At the top of the line-up, is the race for Governor between incumbent MLG and Republican Mark Ronchetti. The race has now been ranked "favored" for MLG to win by the handicappers at 538 with the current prediction calling for a 52.1% to 45.3% finish.
Using their election model 538 simulated the race 40,000 times and found that she wins 83 out of 100 times with Ronchetti getting across the finish line first 17 times in 100 tries.
That tracks with last month's ABQ Journal poll that gave the incumbent a 47 to 40 lead with the Libertarian getting 5 percent and a mere 8 percent undecided.
Both of these racers are known and far wide so the final two months will center on whether one candidate can throw the other off their horse and persuade their voters to ride with them or at least not vote. Is there that kind of fluidity in the electorate when it comes to this contest? It doesn't appear so but there is plenty of time to test the contention.
HERRELL VS. VASQUEZ
With Dems surging nationally, southern congressional candidate Gabe Vasquez is looking for a post Labor Day reset in his head-to head race against GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell. He needs it fast as 538 now says Herrell is "slightly favored" in the newly drawn district that is more Dem friendly with the addition of a slice of ABQ's Hispanic westside.
In the 538 simulation Herrell gets the first place ribbon 58 out of 100 times while Vasquez, a former Las Cruces city councilor, wins 42 out of 100. The model currently calls for a 50.8% to 49.2% finish Election Night.
DC Dems got a late start in this contest that other handicappers still rate a "toss-up." The national environment currently favoring them will have to be what puts Vasquez over the top.
Herrell has vulnerable votes--like against certifying the election results in favor of President Biden and rejecting the popular Inflation Reduction Act. But she's got steel in her spine and voters like nothing if not authenticity.
Vasquez has to unmask Herrell's hard Trumpian edge and stop her from hiding behind Reba, her Great Dane who appears with Herrell in her first TV spot and has assumed a starring role in the thus far lackluster race.
STATE HOUSE SCRAMBLE
Dem Rep. Marian Matthews has started to nudge abortion forward as a headline issue in her face-off with Republican Bob Godshall, who lost a close one to Matthews in 2020.
Matthews is pushing out an endorsement from Planned Parenthood. That's backing that would be ordinary in any other year but this year comes loaded with the the pro-choice message. There's no shortage of Republicans, particularly GOP women, who are upset with the Supreme Court's ruling turning abortion law over to the states.
The national mood, Matthews' status as an incumbent, her superior fund-raising and her move on abortion tells us she leads by a couple of lengths.
There are other House races where the GOP hopes to cash a winning ticket but if they can't keep the Country Club class in their cheering section, their chances may also be darkening elsewhere.
GLOOM OR HOPE?
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| FBI's Bujanda |
But there are signs of hope that post-pandemic ABQ could get back on its feet.
One of those is the FBI led takedown last week of the drug culture that even had those permanently cynical giving an approving nod. Among them is retired APD cop and watchdog Dan Klein who has written extensively about the cartel-led drug epidemic. He opines that if the Feds aren't "one and done" on their drug intervention, we could finally see crime bottom out.
The intervention was highly significant. When was the last time area law enforcement here conducted same day raids that netted 142 pounds of meth, loads of arms and ammunition, $4 million in cash and one million fentanyl pills. One million! (And when does this blog use exclamation points?)
That finally put the picture fully in the window: ABQ is riddled with an unrelenting drug epidemic that has to be lassoed or else. The raids confirm that the notorious Surenos Gang is distributing drugs across the metro and is a pipeline for the Mexican drug cartels. The results have been devastating for behavioral health, business development and quality of life.
The J. Edgar at the local FBI office, Raul Bujanda, seems to have the moxy to get the attention of the drug cabal. He's cobbled together area agencies, including the Sheriff and APD, to go along for the ride. Here's wishing them a first place finish in their race. The practice run was just what the doctor ordered for the Pollyannas among us.
And even ABQ Mayor Tim Keller, whose popularity now seems lower than a snake's belly, has come through with glad tidings for the glass is half-full crowd. After two years of mishaps and misfortune he says the long delayed Gateway Center for the homeless and mentally afflicted--who dot so many of our street corners--will be open this winter. It will start small but finally it will start.
For Tired Tim, 45 is the new 65. But if character is formed by adversity (and it is) Keller could find newfound strength in his second act. Lord knows, Mr. and Mrs. Albuquerque are hoping.
THE BOTTOM LINES
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022