MLG Predicts: "New Mexicans Will Re-Elect Me In November," Critics Call Her "Cocky" Plus: Gender Wars On Full Display In Guv Race, And: Will Crime Matter At Ballot Box?

Even as her campaign continues with frantic fund-raising pitches asserting that the gubernatorial race is neck and neck, MLG is now publicly proclaiming--and emphatically so--that she will be victorious over Republican nominee Mark Ronchetti in November. The mixed messaging arose when she took to Twitter (or the staffers who control her account did) and sent this tweet:

I'm pro-choice. Pro-education. Pro-working families. Pro-democracy. Pro New Mexico. I'm everything @MarkRonchettiNM is not. That's why New Mexicans will re-elect me this November. 

The bold claim is not unsupported but it opened her to criticism that she is getting "cocky" and that a more humble tone is in order along the lines of "that's why I need your vote November 8th."

Social media is growing increasingly frothy as the election draws ever closer, as seen in this response to MLG's prediction: 

Pro lockdown, pro masking, pro shaming your constituents, Anti #NativeAmerican (see lockdown above) Anti oil and gas, Anti small business (see lockdown above) and Anti law enforcement. You're also pro; what's good for me is not good for thee. You remember, beef, jewelry haircuts?

There is no public polling in the race for July or August. MLG said in a fundraising pitch early this month that she had a three point lead. 

The SurveyUSA back in May started the race with her ahead 47 to 43. National pundits continue to rate the race "lean Democratic."

Our blog analysts think the national environment has helped the Dems here as gas prices recede, they scored a big congressional win, Biden rebounds a bit and as the Supreme Court's anti-abortion ruling resonates and Ronchetti's problems with that issue remain unresolved.

Judging by the campaign messaging the race remains sharply divided along gender lines. In that Survey USA poll Ronchetti led men 46 to 42, reflecting the male bent of the Republican Party but MLG was leading with women by a much larger margin--51 to 39.

GENDER WARS

Flash forward and the gender wars rage in the latest campaign ads with Ronchetti returning to his campaign staple of crime and the fear of it and MLG rolling out Dr. Christina Lovato to tout her handling of health care:

During COVID, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham saved thousands of lives. She also capped insulin costs, ended co-pays for mental health and is working to import lower-cost medicine from Canada. Mark Ronchetti doesn’t have the experience to take on New Mexico’s serious health care challenge or to understand the needs of New Mexico families.  

The spot is well-narrated and does not appear to contain any factual errors or misleading statements which has been an issue in two of MLG's earlier ads. There could be some quibbling over how many lives were saved or weren't saved during COVID.

And from Ronchetti:

Crime is out of control in New Mexico. Second most violent state in the nation. Record murders. It drives the fear that we all feel pumping gas, walking to our car. It doesn't have to be this way. We all deserve to feel safe. I have a plan to fight crime. End catch and release, tough laws and tougher judges and support and fund our police. 

The ad is illustrated by a shopper pushing a grocery cart across a darkened parking light. Like MLG's, it does not appear to contain any problematic statements and is effective for those concerned about and motivated by the ABQ crime wave. However, while ABQ set a new high for murders in 2021, the state as a whole did not. 

The Ronchetti ad also briefly features his wife as it works to swing women in big BernCo his way.

CRIME IMPACT

Voters' motivation on crime is mixed at best. BernCo District Attorney Raul Torrez was strenuously attacked during the campaign for the Dem nod for attorney general over his performance as DA in crime soaked ABQ. He still scored a 54-46 win.

ABQ Mayor Tim Keller was pounded hard over crime by BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales in the 2021 mayoral race but Keller still won in a landslide.

Conservative Hispanic Democrat Louis Sanchez did win an ABQ westside city council seat in that '21 city election using crime as major driver, but he was running against an appointed city councilor who was ultra-liberal and out of step with the district. 

As for healthcare, there is little question that the repeal of Roe is a motivating factor in the election. The issue is how much. MLG's latest ad doesn't go there but it doesn't need to as a Planned Parenthood PAC is on the air with a heavy buy hammering Ronchetti over his abortion stance. 

Another obvious example of the gender campaign is the appearance over the weekend of former Arizona US rep and gun control crusader Gabby Giffords working a phone bank for MLG in Santa Fe and trying to offset Ronchetti's crime attacks on MLG. Her visit follows one for Ronchetti by Florida Gov. DeSantis who has broad appeal among GOP men. 

MLG NO SHOW

If MLG felt endangered would she have decided to show up for this debate with Ronchetti today?

Key players in the New Mexico business and commercial real estate industry are hosting a gubernatorial forum Monday. Republican @MarkRonchettiNM will be in attendance but incumbent Democrat @GovMLG “declined the invitation to participate,” organizer @NAIOPNM said.

NAIOP is a Republican leaning group and is fertile ground for Ronchetti but in the past Dem contenders have agreed to debate there. This time it appears MLG is more concerned about losing ground than giving any away. Don't expect any joint appearances anytime soon. 

READY TO POUNCE

At this point Ronchetti is pouncing at any opportunity he can. Here he is scoring the administration over the issuance of some of those state rebate checks to the dead:

Is there any part of New Mexico state government that @Michelle4NM has under control? The incompetence continues to be shown here with distribution of stimulus checks to deceased people. 

We can already hear Donald Trump: 

Rebate checks, the right to vote and everlasting peace. The dead in New Mexico are getting away with murder!

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022