In the 2014 primary about 118,000 voted. Thirty thousand Dems have voted as of Friday, and if we get a total turnout this year similar to '14, we are now at the 25 percent turnout mark. Well over half the primary vote is expected to be cast early, with the heaviest days coming this Friday and Saturday.
The ad attacks Martinez for not prosecuting any ABQ police officers for the many fatal shootings that took place while he was US attorney.
If that ad does not take him down, Martinez, 52, will very likely be the Democratic nominee and the next congressman from the ABQ district. He led in the robocall poll conducted May 24 for your blog as well as in the ABQ Journal survey which incorporated cell phone users.
Well over half the primary vote is expected to be cast early, with the heaviest days coming this Friday and Saturday.
DAVIS TO HAALAND
Dem congressional hopeful Pat Davis ended his candidacy today and endorsed Deb Haaland. Davis, an ABQ city councilor has been polling poorly, garnering only 5% in the Journal survey and 4% in our May 24 poll. Om his way out the door, he took a slap at frontrunner Damon Martinez:
Out-of-state SuperPACs have already spent a half-million dollars to attack and divide progressives and help a conservative Democrat like Damon Martinez win on Election Day. I respect Damon Martinez’s service, and I’ve known him for years — but his failure to listen to our residents and hold police accountable, and his selective targeting and prosecution of poor, addicted black and brown residents of my own city council district should give us all pause.
Martinez responded:
Damon Martinez is alarmed right now about the Trump Administration's policies of separating children from their families at the border and their efforts to roll back reproductive rights. It's unfortunate that other candidates in this race are focusing their efforts on attacking a fellow Democrat instead of holding the Trump Administration accountable for its actions. In fact, this is exactly what Republicans want - Democrats at each other's throats so that they are too distracted to take on the lies and disastrous policies coming out of Washington, D.C.
Davis' name will stay on the ballot and with only days to go before the election is over the endorsement is not expected to have much impact. However, both Haaland and Davis have been doing well with Anglo voters so if the race turns out to be exceptionally close and Haaland were to win, he could take some credit.
Davis earned a reputation as an effective community advocate and organizer when he headed the liberal group ProgressNow NM, but his service as a city councilor where he approved of the hyper-controversial ART project and played footsie with the Republican Mayor were the beginning of the end for him. And his controversial "Fuck the NRA" TV ad appears to have backfired rather than helped.
Haaland is seen as holding third, not second, by the political pros. The only survey to have Haaland in second was the Journal's. That surprised because internal polls for the candidates have her third as did our robocall poll.
"I think Sedillo Lopez just had a bad run in the Journal poll. It happens," said one the Alligators.
There's reason to believe they are right. Sedillo Lopez has been pounding the airwaves with Martinez while Haaland's presence is not as strong. She also has a strong ground game.
Still, Damon Martinez is the man to beat. And with Pat Davis out and Damian Lara and Paul Moya way back, it will take a woman to pull it off.
A TAXING QUESTION
If Michelle Lujan Grisham and Steve Pearce end up facing off in the November Guv election, there will be no new ground broken when it comes to financial disclosure. Both say they will not release their personal income tax returns.Jeff Apodaca was the only Guv candidate who released his full return when asked, and he charges MLG with being "two faced" for not releasing hers after demanding that President Trump make public his returns.
Apodaca filed jointly with his wife for 2016 and reported $534,696 in adjusted gross income, most of it from salary. Apodaca was an executive at the media company Entravision that year but left over a dispute. The Apodaca's paid $136,648 in federal taxes. They filed for an extension for their 2017 return.
Apodaca is the first major party gubernatorial candidate we can recall releasing his full return. Win or lose, he has set down a marker and now future candidates will all be asked if they will release their returns.
NO STEALING
Here's a quote apparently meant with good intentions but you have to believe Lujan Grisham would like to see it disappear:
He also said Lujan Grisham and Armstrong have been aboveboard in their handling of the contract, saying, “They haven’t stolen anything, and they’ve done a good job.”
Well, after what Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico have seen in state politics, anyone who can just pass the "not stealing anything" test probably gets a positive job approval rating.
The quote came from the state insurance superintendent who was responding to a question about the health consulting business of MLG and Rep. Deborah Armstrong once had together. Today Armstrong runs it.
THE BOTTOM LINES
We blogged the campaign Friday thru Monday and if you are catching up from the holiday you can scroll down for those reports.
Thanks for tuning in.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018