The fat lady is about to sing loud and clear; Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is about to become the 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee, and New Mexico will play a big part in closing the door on the rest of the field. According to the final ABQ Journal Poll for the Feb 3 NM Prez caucus, Kerry has an astounding 2 to 1 lead over his closest rival. Here are the stunning numbers that may make a President: Kerry--31%, Dean--15, Clark--14, Edwards--7, Lieberman--3, Kucinich--2, Gephardt--1, Undecided--27. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The high undecided is normal for an expected low-turnout election. With his mammoth lead, Kerry leads everywhere in the state. If no other candidate gets 15 percent of the vote in one of the three congressional districts, Kerry will sweep all 26 delegates up for grabs. With his poll numbers, it's possible. I am told that even the early absentee vote that Dean was counting on will apparently go to Kerry by a narrow margin. Now, on to the big picture.........
THE TIME TO HESITATE IS THROUGH
This is no time for fudging. If Kerry of New England trounces the field Tuesday in this key swing state heavy with Hispanics and conservative and liberal activists by a margin anywhere close to that in the poll, this race is over and the Democratic Party has a nominee to show America and the world. Edwards can win South Carolina, Clark can take Oklahoma but to be completely uncompetitive in a state with such important constituencies and demographics will not and can not stand with a Democratic Party hungry to oust President Bush. Only a miracle, or a Kerry error of immense proportion, can now stop the inevitable. Political junkies and a press corps hungry for a story may try to keep the race alive, but here we are all the way out on the limb: put on Roy Orbison and have him sing "It's Over." Because it is.
Kerry has risen from the lonely single digits (8%) in the first Journal survey to today's dominance on the classic "Big Mo" generated by near-routs over the field in Iowa and New Hampshire. His lead in delegate rich Missouri and neighboring Arizona is also solid. Tuesday night he will cap a comeback that will secure the nomination and begin an arduous journey to conquer Bush.
Hunger, if not desperation for a winner, is the key to his NM and national numbers. This is not the great unwashed masses voting in these primaries and caucuses. It's the core base of the Democratic party. Electability is THE issue. Their animosity to this president can only be compared to their disdain for Richard Nixon. And Kerry's comeback can only be compared to Ronald Reagan's in 1980.
Like Reagan, Kerry faced an early crisis of confidence in his campaign, and took decisive action by reshuffling the deck and coming back swinging. Forget the consultants, speechwriters and the TV ads, it's all about character friends. A man can look in the mirror and not like what he sees. He can blame it on the mirror, or he can go deep down and get the truth. Kerry looked deep down, found the truth about himself and had the courage to change. Isn't that how all the big ones in life and politics are won?
ALL OR NOTHING AT ALL
This is not a spin room for Kerry. Sure, he had help when Dean imploded. But why not Clark or Edwards or Gephardt? A man who has found his voice, as Reagan did when he grabbed that microphone away from Bush in New Hampshire back in the 80', and as Kerry did when he saw his campaign ship slowly sinking, separates himself from the pack with the boldness that comes with confidence. That's what a woman wants from a man. That's what a man wants from a woman. And that's what a voter wants from a president. Yes, Oprah is right. It's all about relationships.
Some may say that Kerry still has to go through a 'real' trial by fire; that he has not been truly tested. Not true. His test came in those cornfields of Iowa when he gave life to an inner voice that had been stifled by his own doubts and displayed in a bizarre Rolling Stone interview and a whimpering frustration on the campaign trail. For my money, Kerry's self-resurrection gives him the right to lead his party.
For us politics watchers this nomination fight has been an exhilarating ride. But the roller coaster is about to stop. The next few months passengers will only get a few dips as the Kerry challengers sputter to a final rest. But oh, what a ride it's been. I don't know about you, but I'm getting back in line for another one this Fall that I hope is as good as the first.
DENVER POST AND THE NM CAUCUS
Denver Post national reporter Karen Crummy breaks the news today that Governor Bill will push for a Western Regional Primary for the next go around. Read about that as well as my analysis of the race and its impact on the western U.S. Denver Post
And on today's 4 p.m. news on KRQE-TV, Channel 13, veteran anchorman Dick Knipfing and I will analyze the NM caucus on this Election Eve. Be sure to join us.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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