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Tuesday, January 13, 2004

Late Breaking: Son of House Speaker Lujan Launches Political Career, Latest on GOP Peace Pact and Predicting Prez Turnout Here

SPEAKER LUJAN
Like father like son. Ben Ray Lujan, son of State House Speaker Ben Lujan, confirms to "New Mexico Politcs With Joe Monahan" that he will seek the Public Regulation Commission (PRC) seat being vacated by Jerome Block. The young Lujan currently works as an administrator at the state Department of Cultural Affairs. Prior to that, he was a Deputy State Treasurer. One thing that stands out on his resume is his internship with then Congressman Bill Richardson, now Big Bill. Of course, the Guv will stay neutral in the Democratic primary. Of course.

Ben Jr. has politics in his blood. He was born on Election Night 1972, as his dad was reelected to the Santa Fe County Commission. He told me he has "hung around the legislature" since he was a little boy, learning the ways of La Politica from his father, who is now a Zen master of the game, even bailing out Big Bill from a couple of legislative errors in the recent special session.

Whoever gets the Dem nomination is the odds on favorite for victory in the heavily Democratic district in November. No GOP candidates are in yet. Also, the new commissioner can be assured of a big paycheck. The job pays $90,000 a year plus $300,000 for staff. The campaign for the seat will cost about $100,000, and with Speaker Dad's connections that puts young Ben on the
inside track.

The job is a powerful one, regulating the major utilities of the state. But it has been a disaster politically since it was established in the late 90's, marked by continual infighting, backstabbing and political 'movidas' being the rule of the day. But talk of abolishing it has gone no where.

The race for the Democratic nomination for this PRC seat, which sprawls across northern NM and into Bernalillo County's Westside, could also feature former State Senator Art Rodarte of Espanola and ABQ City Councilor Miguel Gomez. Former State Rep. Bob Perls of Corrales has already announced. A split of the Hispanic vote could toss the nomination to Perls. But get this. Ben Ray says the Hispanic contenders will be meeting soon and deciding if just one of them should run! And, of course, that one, would be Ben Ray. Hey, you learn some things hanging out with the Speaker.

GOP WARRIORS SMOKE PEACE PIPE
ZANGARA
Peace is at hand. Bernalillo County Republican Party Chairman Ken Zangara will take charge of the President's reelection campaign in New Mexico. (Our exclusive report from yesterday is just below) It's a compromise deal that is aimed at settling the infighting between current State GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham and ousted chair John Dendahl. The dispute has dragged on for months dividing the party and endangering NM's five precious electoral votes for Bush.

Zangara, a Dodge dealer and an ally of Gorham, is a compromise who is acceptable to both sides in the dispute. Because there is thousands of dollars in campaign contracts to be handed out the fight has been spirited. Zangara will now hire an executive director for the Victory Committee. A leading candidate was said to be PR man Doug Turner, who was closely associated with former Governor Gary Johnson and runs an ad agency here. But insiders are now saying the post could go to an out-of-state Bush operative.

A source told me: "The White House knows Ken. They can work with him and he can bring both sides together." Zangara raised over $100,000 for Bush in 2000. And he is aiming to personally raise $250,000 this go around. He is also considering a challenge to Dendahlite ringleader Mickey Barnett when Barnett comes up for reelection as GOP National Committeeman.

Because of campaign finance laws there will be another Bush-Cheney outfit in New Mexico. That will be run by a national operative from the Bush campaign. Running a presidential campaign thru a county party is unprecedented. But the county does share headquarters in ABQ with the state party and leaders hope the compromise deal will finally end months of Republican bloodletting.

Gorham and company were claiming victory over the pact, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. Let's see how the spoils from the Republican National Committee and the Bush White House are divvied up, before we say this latest GOP war has ended in
peace.

DEM PREZ RACE; TURNOUT IS THE BIG MYSTERY

Fresh figures from the state Democratic Party show about 8,300 Dems statewide out of a half-million registered have requested absentee ballots for the February 3 caucus. To reach a 10 percent turnout they need about 50,000. Will they make it? This one has the top political pros stumped.

Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling tells me turnout could go as low as 28,000 or as high as the targeted 50,000. But he is quick to add, "that analysis, plus a dollar, would get you a cup of coffee." Fellow pollster Harry Pavlides pegs turnout anywhere from 35,000 to 50,000. Why the big spread and uncertainty? Because we are in uncharted territory with this being the first-ever NM Prez caucus.

My guess? With the candidates campaigning here in person later in the month, and if events in Iowa and New Hampshire make things interesting, we might get a turnout bump. In a contested campaign my number to watch is 40,000. If someone is running away with it, my target drops to 30,000.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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