Senator Kerry's blow-out victory in Iowa puts New Mexico at ground zero for the 2004 race for president. Late last night politicos statewide were scrambling to interpret the results and prepare for the coming free-for all in New Hampshire, and then February 3 in New Mexico and six other states. More on that in a minute, but first the breaking news.
Speaking to me from Des Moines last night Kerry NM campaign manager Geri Prado reported Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, has scheduled a visit here January 29 and 30. Geri, reporting from outside a caucus site, had just nailed down the details. She also told me Senator Kerry will be here at least once before the February 3 caucus. She said the first thing on her wish list from the national campaign is to bring the hundreds of veterans' groups who have piled into Iowa and New Hampshire into New Mexico.
Now, the key points made by my expert analysts from across New Mexico
---Gephardt supporters here need a home. Their man is gone. He has solid union support and many Hispanic allies, especially in the ABQ South Valley. He got 7 percent in the recent Journal poll. The pundits say the Gephardt crowd would find a natural home with Kerry. "Senator Kennedy could make the difference in that regard." Said the Green Party's Steve Cabiedes. "The Kennedy legacy in New Mexico is immense with Hispanics and unions like him to." Interestingly, Kennedy's son, Congressman Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island, supported Gephardt and was here for him at a fundraising event. Of course, the big decision on who to support now is in the hands of Gephardt himself.
----Dean was almost decapitated in Iowa, but Francisco Castillo, Dean NM campaign manager, put the best face he could on the wipe-out. "This makes New Mexico all the more important. We still plan on winning here. We are organized and we are going to fight," he declared. The politicos I talked to agreed with Castillo that Iowa puts our state fron and center in the 2004 Dem prez campaign, but they were less optimistic about Dr. Dean's future. "New Hampshire may be a must-win for him now," one told me. "Even though he has the money to go forward, so will Kerry and Edwards after last night."
---Senator Edwards's strong, suprise second place showing needs to generate "big mo" and soon. His chief supporter here, Attorney Geneal Patsy Madrid, has helped raise a lot of money, but in the Journal poll he was at four percent and his organization here is skimpy. One pundit said Edwards needs to make a play in southern New Mexico. Pollster Harry Pavlides told me: "Edwards will play well down there. He has appeal in the small towns. That's where I would look for votes." (Madrid's longtime political rival, Light Guv Diane Denish, is a key supporter of Kerry's)
---Predicting what will happen here is practially impossible, said pollster Brian Sanderoff speaking from his North Valley home where he was glued to the TV set. "Joe, this is one of the most volatile and fluid races we will ever see." Sanderoff said New Hampshire will create a another set of circumstances that will impact New Mexico. He said where Gephardt supporters go is what ultimately will be remembered about the Iowa caucuses three months from now.
---Republican Bruce Donisthorpe, manning the late-night election watch and preparing to see President Bush speak Thursday in Roswell, phoned in with the hope that the positive campaigns conducted by Kerry and Edwards could mean "negative" TV may finally be hitting the wall in terms of impact. Let's hope so.
---Some 22,000 absentee ballots have been requested so far by NM Dems, but only a couple of thousand have been returned. Why so few? Back to Sanderoff for analysis: "Most of those ballots will come in, but I think many voters have waited to see the results of the Iowa vote before marking the ballots." That could be good news for Kerry and Edwards.
---Big money is coming. Pollster Pavlides chimed in that you can "expect huge money" to flood into the state--starting today. "Why wait?" He asked. Why, indeed.
---What about General Clark? He's on the air with new TV here and ready to party. Can he spoil Kerry in New Hampshire? On the airwaves here he's in full battle mode, but needs the momentum in New Hampshire to perk up the ground troops in New Mexico and excite the electorate.
Thanks to all my contributors to today's report. It was a wild night alright, and there's more to come. It's why we all love politics. It doesn't always deliver the unexpected, but when it does it's political junkie heaven.
READ MORE OF MY ANALYSIS IN TODAY'S TRIBUNE
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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