Killing unification will be like "trying to kill Dracula' one opponent says. Top NM pollster Brian Sanderoff is flat-out predicting to me that this measure will lose by at least 15% in the Tuesday election, but the constitutional amendment authorizing the vote says if it is defeated it has to be voted on again within one year! That means a brand new charter writing commission.
Unification opponent and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Brasher is not optimistic that a second vote can be stopped. "The constitutional amendment clearly calls for a second election and we would have to pass another amendment stopping the first one, if we were to have a chance. That does not appear possible." He said.
Problem is there's no time. At the earliest, a constitutional amendment could not be put before state voters until next November, (unless it was a highly unlikely special election) past the deadline for the second election contained in the amendment now on the books. So Bernalillo County residents face the prospect of deciding the measure again at next November's General Election, even though they may have resoundingly said "no" just a year earlier. Also, if unification is beat Tuesday, several of the County Commissioners whose terms would be extended if the measure passed Tuesday, will not get that benefit from the second vote. Will their support for unification then be as firm? Probably not. The whole mess shows how determined the proponents of unification have been. They deserve credit for political strategy, but it's no way to run the government railroad.
Bottom Line: We could vote on unification again and again, but until proponents make a better case on financial savings it's a loser. And if they try to do another expensive mail-in election, they will be run out of town on a rail.
AT THE ROUNDHOUSE: ROMERO TAKES THE BALL FROM MANNY--FOR NOW
Sen. Romero
Deep inside the Roundhouse, the political operatives are weighing in with the losers and winners from the bizarre special session that is still unfolding at the capitol. The Guv has had his turn in the barrel already, being scored statewide for not having his act together. Now Senate Majority Leader Manny Aragon is taking a hit from his longtime nemesis Senate President Pro Tem Richard Romero. Said one insider: "Manny yelled and screamed to keep the senate in session, but Richard rounded up enough votes to get out of Dodge. He's a winner in this one. But long term, Manny will be back and Richard is off to run for Congress and won't return. So it's hard to say there is long-term implications here."
Democratic Sen. Linda Lopez made a motion to adjourn and drew the wrath of Manny who was ousted from the Pro Tem position a couple of years ago in part because Linda was having a baby and not around to vote for him at the time, but when they took a second vote she voted no on Aragon. Valley political operatives say Manny may be looking for an opponent to run against Linda in the Democratic primary next year and that Linda wanted out of the special and its tax raising possibilities to protect her own re-election chances. Linda, Bernalillo County Democratic Party Chairwoman, also is a prospect for mayor of ABQ in the 2005 elections, contrary to the spin at City Hall where sources report Linda's business has a contract to provide services in the criminal justice system. If she can get by Manny and get re-elected, she is seen as a possible contender for the city's top job.
Governor Bill and Manny worked together well in the regular session at the beginning of the year. But they just did not have their ducks in a row this time and lost the senate. Insiders are telling me the road bill passed by the House Friday and waiting for the Senate to act on when it reconvenes this week may be a "toss-up" with many senators fearful for re-election not wanting to vote for ANY tax or fee increases, which are in the road bill. The Guv is doing overtime on the arm-twisting and needs to pull something other than the sex offender law out of this session, or face the possibility of a political hit that leads to a loss of power. For both sides the stakes don't get much higher. Stay tuned.
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