Brian Sanderoff, President of highly-regarded Research and Polling, Inc., tells "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" that he has been in the field this week and will report his exclusive poll results on the controversial unification election in Sunday's editions of the ABQ Journal. http://abqjournal.com/ Brian said this poll has presented special challenges because it is a mail-in ballot. "We have to ask the person we poll if they received a ballot, whether they filled it out and mailed it, or whether they are likely or not likely to vote and mail it in. The election concludes November 4 and I asked Brian if his poll could be likened to an exit poll since many of those he will interview will already have voted. "To some extent, yes. However, I would not compare it to the accuracy of exit polls. A good portion of the sample will be of those who have already voted, but not all." Brian and I kicked around the numbers, looked at a 1999 city mail-in election and the return of ballots so far and concluded turnout for the election has a decent chance of attracting over 30% of registered voters, but not a whole lot more.
Brian's record is hard to match in the polling business and he is rightfully proud of getting it right. Republican Roswell State Senator Rod Adair e mailed me recently charging that Brian had botched the polling over state constitutional amendment two which narrowly passed last month. The poll had the amendment passing with 55% of the vote, but it barely won. Adair called that a miss. But Brian points out: "It did pass. The poll was taken several weeks before the election, and I said then if the campaign heated up in the last few days it could be close. That's what happened." Sanderoff was candid saying he would like to have been closer and also would have liked a larger polling sample in that special election. Rod is a polling expert, but also a hard-hitting partisan. Brian better keep up the good work. If he gets one wrong, Rod will never let him live it down.
The sampling for the unification poll is large and Sanderoff is again working overtime to get it right. I asked him in his role as a veteran political analyst if he thought the measure would have a tough time passing. He said he did. I agree because the election has been marked by unprecedented confusion.
Research and Polling is not a political polling firm. It does most of its business with major corporations throughout the southwest. But Sanderoff's first love is politics. He even had a political career long ago. When we were classmates at the University of New Mexico in the 1970's he was elected Attorney General of the student government. But since he won't tell me what that Sunday poll will show, I won't tell how I voted in that race!
KOAT--HIDING DIANNE ANDERSON?
I say hiding because last night in one of the rare times the veteran anchorwoman was shown off the anchor chair, she knocked the ball out of the park with a high-powered interview with Esther Beckley, one of the perpetrators of the notorious Albuquerque Hollywood Video murders of 1996. Five died in the terrible crime that rocked the political and criminal justice system. It was absorbing television, not glorifying the interviewee, but getting real insight into this heinous crime. In the jailhouse interview, Beckley cracked under Anderson's soft, but probing manner.
Asked by Anderson why she pleaded guilty when she claims it was her accomplice who actually pulled the trigger, Beckley paused, choked up and sighed: "Because I am." Hearing that hit hard for all who mourned for Albuquerque that terrible day.
If KOAT is looking for an edge over its noteworthy rivals they may want to get Dianne away from the teleprompter more often and keep her interview chair warm. By the way, Anderson comes from a media family. Her father was in the radio business in Missouri.
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