Only hours now before Mr. and Mrs. Albuquerque go to the polls and the New Mexico political pros I count on are weighing-in with some interesting thoughts. These oracles are longtime veterans of many, many political battles so I pay careful attention to their collective judgment on the weekend before an election. Here is their consensus as the clock ticks down on Campaign 03':
DISTRICT FOUR---City Councilor Brad Winter is in a dogfight with fellow Republican Pat Milligan of Sandia Labs, and the race is now a "toss-up." The pro-business CGA PAC has been relentless in its attacks on Winter, and he has not responded forcefully enough, these pros say, to erase the doubts raised. Winter's likability, the respect he commands among his neighbors and his image as a "nonpolitician" are keeping him alive. But my gurus told me a couple of weeks ago they thought Winter would easily prevail. No more. Even though the CGA attacks on Winter's tax votes blatantly misrepresent his record, Brad may not have committed enough resources to answer them. Still, Winter's service as a high school assistant principal, his athletic record, which CGA scorned, and his generally positive Council record keeps his hopes alive. They say Milligan, a conservative Republican, is seen as an acceptable replacement for Brad, if the negative CGA campaign made the electorate open to removing Winter. No doubt this is a race to watch with us Monday afternoon at 5 and on Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM
DISTRICT SIX-- Despite a massive CGA effort for Republican Johanna Tighe, my gurus maintain a liberal will still be elected to the seat being vacated by Hess Yntema. "Instead of looking for the Republican to beat the bunch of liberals running, the upset to look for is Linda Doran edging out favorite Martin Heinrich." Said one senior oracle. My reports say Linda has been working hard for weeks and she has raised a respectable campaign kitty. If Green Bob Anderson steals enough from Martin, who knows?
I hasten to add the guru consensus is that Heinrich pulls it out. One of the elders had this brusque analysis: "Heinrich started early, the mayor singled him out as an enemy and he has raised more money than any other candidate. Any more questions?" No, I don't, Mr. Guru. But I am anxious to see the early results that Lenton Malry will bring in from Highland High and Bandelier Elementary to KANW 89.1 FM early on Election Night.
DISTRICT TWO--This one has been giving my gurus a bit of a headache, but the final consensus is that liberal Debbie O'Malley is in the lead. The oracles cite her endorsement by outgoing Councilor Vince Griego, her activism in the Sawmill area and her support among members of the business community who are hedging their bets and throwing money her way. As in District Six the gurus say they don't think the conservative CGA negative literature will have as much impact as it might in a swing district. My lead guru for this area wrote it this way. "This is a solidly liberal area and a lot of the CGA stuff is being ignored. The CGA candidate, Mary Molina Mescall, ran into controversy over her retirement status as a city employee and her decision to support the widening of Montano bridge." Another of my soothsayers also cited Montano as another reason he is picking O'Malley to take it. "CGA was way too doctrinaire. Mary had to say yes to widening Montano or not get any of the CGA money working for her. If CGA was smart they would have supported her with an anti-bridge position." Interesting. That's why they are gurus.
STREET BONDS--My gurus say the cake is baked and all the bond issues will pass. Here's a sample: "I sense momentum shifting. The anti-street bond campaign peaked early, and the response by the supporters has been swift and equal to the attack. It may be close in some areas,, but they pass." Another guru perspective: "The bond supporters put (mayor) Chavez a bit too much out in front in their TV and risked further division, but it looks like it will work for them." And yet another oracle opinion: "Albuquerque hasn't voted down a bond issue in years. There are goodies in that $52 million package, not just Paseo. It's suprising how much neighborhood support that generates. I think they pass with at least 55 per cent." OK. Any chance the street bonds fail? "If it snows on the westside, and is sunny in the southeast." You gotta love that guru humor.
QUARTER-CENT TAX---My gurus were a bit divided here, but the consensus was for passage. Said one: "No campaign has been mounted against it. The firemen did a TV spot in favor and the northeast heights, where the opposition is most likely, seems pretty calm about it. I don't think it's a walk in the park, but it makes it." Another guru offering: "I still think it could cut either way. In the mid 90's voters rejected a similar tax, but there was a lot more controversy, so I am saying it will win this time." Several gurus said they feel more comfortable in their Council predictions than with the tax issue.
"We just have more to go on with those." Said one.
Thanks to all my contributors. As for me, I predict at least one surprise Election Night. I don't know what it will be, but there's always at least one, which keeps us all coming back for more of La Politica. Remember, our live coverage Election Night starts at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM. See you then!