Balconies at Roundhouse

This one's been a sleeper, so we are going to stick with our turnout prediction of about 715,000, similar to what we saw in the '22 gubernatorial race. 

While on the national scene the talk is of a possible Blue Wave, New Mexico has seen enough of those in recent years to win a "Best in Surfing" award.

While we are just plain old Blue now, a Democratic governor win would inch us closer to deep blue status, giving us a Democrat as governor for 12 consecutive years—a first.

That we would have a third woman in a row as governor is notable, but a yawner. The high expectations that having women controlling the governor's mansion and a majority in the state House would be the beginning of the end for our array of social ills have been quashed.

But the argument that the foundation has been laid for a reversal by those female executives (and legislators)—early childhood education funding, universal childcare, free college tuition—can't be dismissed outright. "Paciencia," they shout from the balconies of the multi-storied Roundhouse. (Patience.)

That Deb Haaland would be the first Native American governor in state history and the first female Native Governor in American history will be a welcome entry into the schoolbooks of future third graders. It furthers the immense civil rights gained here in the past century. It's something to be proud of and perhaps the chief reason Haaland could be in the winner's circle Tuesday night.

The possible approval of Constitutional Amendment #4 to provide full-time salaries to state lawmakers would push us further into the blue patch. Since statehood in 1912, New Mexicans have repeatedly rejected the proposal, but now—with progressives holding power and favoring bigger government—another historic marker could be set.

Ultimately, where the state needs to make history is at the bottom of the stack—reversing its ranking as last in the nation for quality of life, with education a glaring example. This campaign offered little inspiration on that front. So as Election Night looms, we are left with only one choice: join the weary optimists looking down from the Roundhouse balconies and call out once more, 'Paciencia, Nuevo México! Paciencia.'

BE FIERCE

"The path is clear: be fierce enough to choose it." That's the closing line of one of the final video ads for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland. The spot is a project of the New Mexico AFL-CIO. Haaland has been endorsed by a wide array of state labor unions and associations.

Then there are the final sit-downs with Haaland and Republican challenger Gregg Hull, conducted by the ABQ Journal's Dan Boyd. The half-hour interview with Haaland is here and the Hull interview is here.

The consensus in the polling and the political community is for a Haaland win; she has outperformed expectations in previous races. If she does that again, her high-water mark could be a ten-point victory at 55 percent. Hull would have to surpass 46 percent to pull his on surprise. That was the GOP mark set in '22.

NOT TIGHT ANYMORE 

The epic, tight gubernatorial races of the 1970s are long gone. In 2018, MLG beat Republican Steve Pearce 57–43, and in 2022, she beat her GOP challenger in a decisive 6.4 point win. In 2014, Republican Susana Martinez claimed victory with 57 percent of the vote. Contrast that with the 1974 race--the first we covered and when Dem Jerry Apodaca kept the state up until the wee morning hours as he held off Republican Joe Skeen 49.94 percent to 48.80. And in 1978 Skeen was back as the GOP nominee and losing in another squeaker to Dem Bruce King 50.55 percent to 49.45 percent. Of course, in our line of work those are dream races come true. 

LEAN D 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.