Hull and Haaland

The sleepy '26 gubernatorial race is about to be jolted awake.  Whether it returns to a coma-like condition may be dependent on the severity of the jolt. 

At the end of the month--August 30 to be precise--the ABQ Journal will release their first poll of the contest featuring Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull. 

The paper's Santa Fe bureau chief Dan Boyd and veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling, who has conducted the Journal surveys since the 80's, tell us that the August poll will be the first of two. The second will drop in October when early voting for the November 3 election is well underway.

But it will be the first batch of numbers that will be most critical, coming as they will during a summer-long polling vacuum in which no unbiased scientific surveys have been released. That's unusual but not unexpected given the conventional wisdom that the race is a nonstarter with Haaland in the driver's seat and the expense of conducting solid polling.

Without any public polling the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have already rated the race as solid for the Democrat--their best possible rating. So Hull desperately needs to reset the early narrative. The Journal survey, widely regarded as a gold standard for polling, offers him that chance but also the prospect of a punch to the jaw. 

PROPPING IT UP 

Hull tried to prop things up with an in-house mid-July poll that actually showed him beating Haaland 49 to 43 percent. However, the fine print said that happened after voters were presented with an "informed ballot." In other words, it was a push poll conducted by Republican firm McLaughlin and Associates who filled the heads of respondents with dire images of Haaland and her policies and then asked voters' their choice for governor. 

That hasn't stopped Hull from using the survey in his fund-raising and has Haaland--somewhat ironically--also employing that same polling to boost her own campaign war chest. 

While her private polling very likely shows her with a secure lead--her campaign strategy indicates as much--Haaland is using her six point deficit in the Hull poll to try to put fear into the hearts of supporters. Take a look:  

Right now, we are building a grassroots movement to protect working families and fight for our shared values across New Mexico, but with Fox News calling our race a top pickup opportunity and a new poll showing me trailing my Republican opponent by 6 points, we need every single person reading this email to chip in. 

Hull released his poll on the socials July 22. In a campaign memo sent July 29 Haaland's campaign manager, Dylan McArthur, said the race was secure for Haaland:

99 days out from the general election, Deb Haaland is in a strong position to win November’s election. . .  with a united Democratic coalition, growing support among independent voters, and demonstrated strength in every region of New Mexico. . .Haaland has built the broadest coalition in the race, is expanding the electorate, and enters the general election with significant momentum and a clear path to victory.

Meanwhile, we've received inquiries from readers scratching their heads over Haaland's fund-raising pitches citing those misleading polling numbers. Their confusion should end with release of the Journal's survey. 

The poll will be conducted with the most reliable (and expensive) methods--including in-person phone interviews with prospective voters. No text messaging, robocalls, internet chats or other sometimes questionable methods to obtain a true reading of the race. And that seems more essential after the polling controversies in the August Wisconsin and Michigan primaries. 

A bad poll for Hull would not be the end of the line but the hit to his already anemic fund-raising could be severe. A surprise that puts the former Rio Rancho mayor anywhere in the vicinity of a possible upset will come as a shock and could set Haaland back on her heels at least momentarily. 

Good polling provides clarity and context for where a race stands at a specific time. Given the current void accompanied by misinformation, the August 30 Journal survey will be more welcome than usual. 

FIGHTING UPHILL 

(Eric Lucero photo)

Several of the top Republican candidates gathered Saturday for the opening of Gregg Hull's campaign headquarters on San Pedro NE in ABQ. 

Despite their long odds for success, the hopefuls came with their game faces and seemed ready for the uphill battle ahead. 

Starting from the left in the posted photo, there is state Sen. David Gallegos, a native of Mora county who represents the SE oil counties of Eddy and Chaves. Gallegos, who worked 30 years in the natural gas industry, is the GOP lieutenant governor nominee and a popular member of the Senate where he has served since 2021. He balances the GOP Guv ticket both geographically and ethnically. 

Ndidiamaka "Didi" Okpareke faces a difficult task in unseating Democratic US Rep. Melanie Stansbury in the 1st Congressional District centered in the ABQ metro. No Republican has won the seat since Heather Wilson was re-elected for a final time in 2006. 

The Cook Partisan Voter Index for the district is D+7. That means that in the last two presidential elections the district's results were 7 points more Democratic than the national average. 

Still, Okpareke (pronounced oak-PAH-reh-kay) has an engaging background that could find appeal among the district's diverse voters. Her campaign says:  

Ndidiamaka Okpareke (you can call her “Didi” for short) was born from immigrants who came to the United States from Nigeria. . .after surviving the destructive Biafran war in Nigeria from 1967 to 1970. . . New Mexico has been Didi’s home for almost 30 years. She’s lived in Albuquerque since 1997, attending Sandia High School and graduating from UNM. In 2016, Didi became a business owner. . .and started Olive Tree Compounding Pharmacy. Throughout her career as a pharmacist, she’s witnessed the essential healthcare needs of New Mexicans. . .Didi is a mother of three boys.

Interesting indeed, but not a background that Stansbury will care to expose to her 1.2 million TikTok followers as she seeks re-election to the seat she first won at a special election in 2021. 

GOP US Senate candidate Larry Marker, pictured between Okpareke and Gregg Hull, is a native of Hobbs who grew up in Roswell. He an unabashed Trumper who got off to a slow start. Marker had to qualify for the November ballot by running as a Republican write-in candidate for the US Senate seat held by Sen. Bey Ray Lujan who is seeking a second term and who Marker is challenging. 

Marker has shown himself adept at landing blows against the state's junior senator but this race is another very steep climb. No Republican has been elected to the Senate from New Mexico since Pete Domenici won re-election in 2002. But a debate between the fiery Marker and the more sedate Lujan would still be must-see TV. Will we get one?

Finally, there's Gregg Hull who will need those thumbs he has pointed up in the photo to stay up during what promises to be a withering attack campaign against him. He does know what it's like to win, having done so as Rio Rancho mayor three times and again in this year's hotly contested GOP governor primary. He'll need to keep that winning past in mind during the turbulent days to come.

THE BOTTOM LINES 

In our Aug. 3 report we said that state Sen. Harold Pope, Jr. would have been the state's first African-American on a major party gubernatorial ticket. Pope, who lost his bid to become the Democratic lieutenant governor nominee when state Dems selected Stephanie Garcia Richard, would have been the first Democratic Black nominee on a gubernatorial ticket. Ant Thornton, also African-American, was the 2022 Republican nominee for governor--a first for that party and the state. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.