(Moore, ABQ Journal)

Catch the stream of our KANW Election Eve Special today at 5 PM right here. 

There are the election results, and then there are the expectations that come with them. In the case of Deb Haaland, the outcome is widely expected to be a cause for celebration. However, whether she simply meets or vastly exceeds those expectations has created suspense in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

In the April 24-27 ABQ Journal poll Haaland was the choice of 52 percent of likely Democratic voters, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman had 30 percent with 18 percent undecided. Today Haaland's internal polling is said to have her at around 56 percent and Bregman at 28 but Bregman says his polling shows the race is "tightening."

Seventy seven percent of the independents voting in the primary, allowed to do so for the first time, are choosing a Democratic ballot. They are expected to comprise about 12 percent of the total Democratic vote. If Bregman scored a big win among them it could give him a boost of 1 to 2 percent, eroding Haaland's victory margin.

If the race finishes with Haaland winning by only low single digits after raising nearly $13 million and spending nearly $11 million, the Republican opposition would be emboldened because they would be able to make a stronger case with donors that Haaland could be defeated in a Democratic state. For the moment, the narrative that the former Sec. of Interior is the presumptive victor would be disrupted.

Haaland's continued difficulty with communicating her message is being exploited by Bregman in a barrage of digital ads as well as a TV spot. The ads show her hesitating, unsure or stumbling while answering questions at congressional oversight hearings when she was in Biden's cabinet. There is more than enough there to give undecided general election voters pause.

Keep an eye on the post-election polling of the ABQ Metro. If there is to be any crack in the narrative that she is the inevitable winner, it will have to show here. The Metro now commands up to 45 percent of the vote in a statewide election and is Haaland's political base.  

GOP GOVERNOR 

Hull, Turner, Rodriguez

On the Republican side, former three-term Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull heads into Election Day with the same ABQ metro firewall as Haaland. His Bernalillo and Sandoval county strength has made him the front-runner for the GOP nomination the entire campaign. 

Chasing Hull is ABQ businessman Doug Turner who believes he is closing and that an upset is in sight. The conventional wisdom sees a low to mid single-digit win for Hull who is expected to dominate the Metro and Turner coming on strong in rural GOP strongholds. 

Turner is making a final-hours embrace of Trump in his advertising but Trump has not endorsed any of the candidates. Hull has kept his distance from him and Rodriguez was called out for running advertising that made it appear he had a White House endorsement. 

Rodriguez started off stronger than where he is expected to finish. His main impact could be stopping Turner from consolidating the anti-Hull vote and ensuring that the former Mayor takes the win. 

Which Republican candidate would be the strongest in the general election? Our Senior Alligators are nearly unanimous that if Rodriguez were to get past his negative baggage in the GOP primary (Arizona residency, campaign donations to Democrats) and score an upset win, he would be best positioned to take on the Democrats and Haaland.

They say the Duke's ethnicity, appeal to independents and moderate Democrats, his ability to deliver and debate a fiery message and his policy chops would make the Haaland-Rodriguez match-up one to watch.

OLD SCHOOL GOTV

It wasn't that long ago that New Mexico had an entirely different way of getting out the vote in the North. Retired newsman David Roybal, author of a book on celebrated politico Fabian Chavez, Jr. who held forth in the 50's and 60's, recalls Chavez's description of Election Day: 

(Elections) were well-oiled, grass-roots practices that kept Santa Fé County Democrats and Republicans -- both parties -- busy each year. "We'd buy liquor and pint bottles of wine, cases of it, and stick them into the trunks of cars that would be driven around on Election Day looking to sweep up votes wherever we could. The booze was for the alcoholics in town who likely wouldn't have gone to the polls if they hadn't been given a ride ... They knew whether they were Democrats or Republicans and were honest enough to get their rides from the appropriate party.

ELECTIVE EVE SPECIAL

Maestas and Abeyta

We're just hours away from he excitement of another New Mexico Election Night. We'll be with you tomorrow bringing all the results, reactions from the candidates and our team of experts. That team will include ABQ state Sen. Heather Bergmans who not only enjoys lawmaking but is a bona fide political junkie. We'll kick off our Election Night coverage on KANW 89. FM and kanw.org at 6:30 p.m. 

But today it is time for our Election Eve Special at 5 PM on KANW. We'll run down the major races, have in-depth analysis and some fun predictions. Joining me will be state Sen. Moe Maestas, Rep. Joy Garratt, GOP official Amy Sanchez, GOP consultant Bob Cornelius and Dem lobbyist/consultant Sisto Abeyta. 

See you on the radio today at 5 PM and Election Night at 6:30. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.