Independent voters are making a bit of history this election. We say a "bit" because even though this is the first time they are allowed to vote in the major party primaries, their expected impact and the attention being paid to them by the campaigns is negligible. 

That's because 10 percent or less of the indys, also know as Decline to State voters, are expected to cast a ballot in the June 2 primary. Early and absentee voting is on that 10 percent path, according to stats from the SOS.

We did find one campaign where the independent vote is being openly pursued---House District 14 in ABQ's downtown and South Valley.

That's where Rep. Miguel Garcia, 75, who took office in 1997 and is the longest-serving member of the House, is facing a credible primary challenge from injury attorney Joseph Romero who is emphasizing bread and butter issues and his military service.

The race must be close. Garcia, as seen in today's post, is specifically targeting independents in a paid mailer, saying he deserves their support because he sponsored the measure that allowed them to vote in primaries. 

Romero, 46, has not attacked Garcia's record (yet) nor made Garcia's lengthy tenure an issue. 

Garcia, a retired APS Spanish language arts teacher, is known for his focus on land grants, veterans' affairs, and environmental conservation. 

Romero is also working for independent votes as seen in this mailer targeting them.

Unlike Garcia he does not mention independents by name. But his emphasis on his military service in the heavily Hispanic district indicates he perceives many as moderates.

Romero furthers that impression by veering to the center on the question of gun control. He says:

I support laws targeting criminal use of firearms, keeping guns out of kids' hands through safe storage, and holding manufacturers and dealers accountable when they sell to criminals. I understand the concern behind calls for broader bans, but the focus should be on the people actually causing harm.  

Garcia is more liberal:

I support a ban on military style assault firearms like the AK-47 and the AR-15. These firearms were made for the battlefield to take out a human life and not for target practicing or deer and elk hunting. We should also make illegal the manufacturing of “ghost” firearms. 

Garcia has never been a big fund-raiser and is being outraised and outspent by Romero. Garcia has raised $17,000 and had cash on hand of $15,000 at last report. 

Romero has raised a more robust $53,000 (with the help of donations from fellow ABQ trial attorneys Lisa Curtis and David Duhigg) and has cash of $43,000 for the final stretch.

It would not take much of a bump in the independent vote to make a difference. As few as 2,500 of the 9,393 registered Democrats in the district are expected to vote. There are 5,130 independents so in a close race they could be key. The problem for both candidates is inspiring them to vote. 

By the way, the District is only 17 percent Republican with 3,045 registered. Republican Ruben Zubio is running in the GOP primary as a write-in candidate. 

Garcia vs. Romero is one of the races we'll keep a close eye on when we take to the airwaves of KANW 89.1 FM June 2 for our traditional wall-to-wall Election Night coverage.  

WHERE INDEPENDENTS RULE

Rep. Silva

Do any of the 70 House districts have a majority of independents? Yes, there is one but only by a hair.

In District 53 in Dona Ana and Otero counties there are 6,684 registered independents and 6,676 Democrats for a tiny indy majority of 8 voters, reports the SOS. That's 36 percent for each with Republicans getting the remainder.

The district is represented by progressive Democrat Sarah Silva who is seeking re-election. She is unopposed in the primary and will face Republican Ben Luna in the general election. 

It is that large swath of independents that make this one of the most competitive districts in the state.

Silva won her 2024 election by just 50.8% to 49.2%. She has a strong incentive to remain responsive to the independents who helped put her in office and who are decidedly middle of the road in this southern region. 

How has Silva approached her majority independent district?

She serves on the House Appropriations and Taxation committees which focus on the state budget and infrastructure rather than divisive culture war issues.

She has framed the abortion rights question not as a social justice matter but one of personal freedom and privacy, appealing to indys who are not fond of big government,

On the controversial Project Jupiter data center proposed for Dona Ana county and that is close to Silva's district, she has taken a supportive but skeptical position. She is not trying to kill the project as some progressive enviros are demanding but instead calls for aggressively protecting the local water and air. 

Some might call Silva a pragmatic progressive. Will her script go statewide as the ranks of independent voters swell? It could, but only if indy turnout approaches the rate of the two major parties. That's when the centrism of the independents would have impact--at least that's the case in the sole House district where the majority party is not a party.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.