Duke Rodriguez

Duke Rodriguez is hedging his bets. 

The GOP gubernatorial candidate seeded his campaign with an initial $500,000 in personal money and declared that he would spend as much as $2 million on the primary. But he is on track to fall short of that number. 

Upon release of his latest campaign finance report last week, the business entrepreneur announced he would be donating another $500,000 in personal funds to his campaign for a total of $1 million. Critics jumped, questioning his commitment to the race which also features ABQ businessman Doug Turner and former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull who each report raising about $500,000. We asked Rodriguez about that $2 million commitment and why he has not come with the entire amount. He said: 

I remain fully committed to investing up to $2 million in this campaign. Any smart businessperson deploys capital in tranches, not all at once. You invest strategically, measure impact, and then scale. . . I could have written a check for the full amount and sat on a pile of cash comparable to at least one of the Democrats—but that proves nothing. Empty claims don’t win elections. Execution does. What matters is what we’re doing now. Just this week alone, we launched a second round of billboard buys, a six-figure radio campaign, next is TV, and we’re rolling out additional print and direct mail. That’s real investment, not talk. The reality is it takes about a million dollars to move the needle on name ID in a race like this. And with more than 70% of likely voters still undecided, this is the most critical phase. We’ll be deploying another $500,000 over the next 50 days to define who I am to voters. . .I’m focused on building a campaign that wins—and letting others take their best shots along the way. 

Rodriguez sounds as if he may be putting a cap of $1 million on his declared $2 million spend for the June 2 primary. Consultants we asked still don't rule out a final days additional donation from Rodriguez, believing he will analyze his polling as mid-May approaches and make a final decision on putting up cash beyond the $1 million. One of them opined:

If he’s gaining ground, he could lean in on spending more to cross the finish line. But if he’s stalled in the teens, he might stick to the $1 million and call it a day. 

There has been no public polling in the race. The candidates are not widely known making cash even more critical than usual. Rodriguez still has the edge. As of April 6 he reports spending $373,000 of the first $500,000 he has donated, leaving him with $175,000 in cash on hand. Combined with the fresh $500K he is giving, that amounts to $675,000 in cash. 

Turner reported $440,000 in cash and Hull reported $238,000. 

DINING AT MAR-A-LAGO

While the PR does not say "Trump is attending," a May 6 high-dollar fund-raiser--$10,000-$25,000 per couple--at the president's Mar-a-Lago private club for Guv candidate Doug Turner and Alaska's Bernadette Wilson--signals an alignment with the Trump agenda. 

New Mexico oil tycoons Mark Murphy and Harvey Yates, Jr. have the communications lines open to Trump. They back Turner and an educated guess is that they have been helpful with the invite to the event hosted by Chris and Ashlee Clarke, advertising heavyweights. 

Insiders tell us Murphy attended a party at the turn of the year at Mar-a-Lago where Trump was in attendance. 

Speculation has it that pairing Turner with an Alaska Guv hopeful could be a broader effort to fuse together governor campaigns in energy producing states. 

All the NM GOP Guv candidates have shied away from Trump on the campaign trail--the proverbial elephant in the room---but whomever is the party's nominee will have to carry his baggage in blue New Mexico. Some will say Turner's cozying up to Trump is a change of "math" rather than a change of heart. One GOP Alligator commenting:

He’s betting that the Trump connection gets him through the primary, and his "moderate businessman" resume gets him through the November general election.

Whatever the case, collecting Trump-related cash could up the ante and put heat on Rodriguez. 

Meanwhile Hull and Turner continue to get aced by Rodriguez in the battle for free media. This lawsuit he filed challenging MLG's funding for universal early childhood care received a fair share of ink.  

DOXXER DEB?

Bregman and Haaland

Meanwhile in the Democratic Guv primary we're seeing the first public tension between Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman with the BernCo District Attorney personally confronting her over his family's safety. This after her campaign posted information about four houses that Bregman owns in ABQ, Angel Fire and Houston. 

The post says Bregman won't stand up to millionaires because he is one, but the reference to his homes was taken down Friday when Bregman condemned the posting and declared that he was being doxxed--that his family was put at risk. 

The post did not have the addresses of the properties but did provide a link for other information about them.

That was enough for Bregman to go on the offensive and do so in person. At a weekend meeting of El Dorado Democrats near Santa Fe where both candidates appeared, Bregman stood with microphone in hand while Haaland was seated to his right and blasted her--a moment shared on the socials:

I have to be honest. Deb, this was an epic failure of judgement. when you posted on your website my 88 year old grandmother's house, my daughter's house (who) is with my two grandchildren. It's a click away from someone finding out. Everyone knows what I do for a living, I'm the District Attorney but you want to post that to get some kind of political shot in. That's called doxxing. It's not right and I can't believe we have actually stooped to that level in this campaign. My family in danger because of a political campaign? Ridiculous. 

A Haaland spokeswoman responded: 

None of this is private information. We did not publish his address, and ultimately, there are ways to look this up.  

Bregman has been attacking Haaland in paid media for taking a ride on a jet linked to Jeffrey Epstein and constantly chiding her over her refusal to debate him. While a counterattack could be expected, the posting about homes owned by the chief prosecutor in the state's largest county appears to be a rookie error. For the moment it pumps some fresh air into Bregman's uphill campaign. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.