The grandmothers and grandfathers of Albuquerque control the ABQ election--not the TikTokkers, the Facebook fans or the instagram addicts that the underfunded mayoral candidates have been confined to--with the exception of Mayor Tim Keller. 

Let's dive in. . .

The Mayor has come with a seeming death blow for his five opponents hoping to take him out of first place in the Tuesday balloting. It also improves his chances of starting any runoff election with a commanding lead that would make the runoff perfunctory.

That blow is the purchase of $111,000 in TV ads for the final days of the campaign, a sum unmatched by his foes, none of whom have more than a paltry TV presence. Add the $111K to a $93,000 Keller TV buy on Oct. 14 and that's an essentially unanswered media spend of over $200,000.

These are not immense sums in the course of most campaigns but they are exaggerated because Keller owns the TV screens, increasing the impact of the ads. 

In TV talk it appears Keller is buying at least 1,000 gross rating points for the final stretch. That means the targeted audience sees his ad about 10 times.

Why it matters is that the majority of voters in this election are probably over 55. To be sure, they are checking on the grandkids on social media but when it comes to what's going on in politics, they are still largely absorbed in their TV screens:

Among U.S. adults aged 55 and over, approximately 74% of those aged 50-64 and 87% of those 65 and older say they often get news from television, according to the latest 2025 Pew Research Center data. This means that for adults 55+, the percentage who often get news from TV is between 74% and 87%, conservatively around 80% when combining these age groups.

TV is big for the senior set but social media is not to be scoffed at and Keller's spending there shows its growing importance. 

Mailing to mailboxes--not just email--is another traditional campaign tool where significant campaign money is still dedicated. 

All of the Mayor's spending on this media was made possible by over $755,000 in public financing he qualified for--the only candidate to do so.

KELLER'S ADVANTAGE 

Keller's TV ads are all positive. They do not mention his opposition even obliquely. Instead he takes a mild jab at the news media for not covering what he says are the auspicious events of his administration. 

Is it fair to say that for a majority of voters Keller's opposition barely exists? Not barely but certainly it is not notable especially with the advantage he has with the perception-shaping power of 30 second TV ads repeated incessantly.

The Keller domination of the airwaves also came into play on the only broadcast TV debate of the campaign on KOAT, an important event for those older voters. But as analyst Greg Payne and others said Keller's performance that night was "unflappable,"

A "make good" debate sponsored by the Journal after criticism that they and KOAT unfairly excluded mayoral hopefuls Mayling Armijo and Eddy Varela had a fairly wide audience. But it ended with the same verdict as the TV encounter--Keller kept his cool and walked away unwounded.

THE VIDEO FLAP 

Two weeks ago during a non-televised mayoral forum before a real estate group a video clip hit the socials showing Keller having a short bout of temper over homelessness in the city. He declared:

 If you want to just believe the sensational claims being thrown around, then vote for them; I don’t want your vote," when discussing homeless encampment clearings.  

ABQ mayoral candidates

The full video clip shows the context of those remarks and how Keller was reacting to comments made about the homeless by other candidates:

I am not going to let some of those comments go that we just heard. It is not illegal to be homeless (applause ) and you want to ship homeless people out of here by force? That is illegal. That is immoral and it's wrong. I know that's what would make you feel better but I will never do it and also you can't do it. If you want to just believe the sensational claims being thrown around, then vote for them; I don’t want your vote.

Keller lost his temper because of what he viewed as outrageous viewpoints about the homeless not because he was flippantly dismissing the electorate. But the comments were twisted. 

The incident was a blip on the radar that did not break out from behind the walls of social media and was probably a welcome statement by a large majority of ABQ residents.

As Keller seeks an unprecedented third consecutive term the deep exasperation of the opposition over the state of the city is palpable and understandable. But their unbridled rage needed to be packaged and presented in a robust, calculated, professional campaign--not a series of social media hen-peckings that couldn't pierce the flesh of a hummingbird. 

The bottom line? Keller is stuck in polling purgatory with an anemic 42 percent approval rating and needed the big money to gain inches. But If we are to believe that campaigns still matter, there is not much doubt where we're headed Election Night. 

While Keller was ruling the TV airwaves, he was calling on a Dem party heavyweight to help close out his ground game.

Rep. Melanie Stansbury led a Sunday afternoon phone bank for the incumbent. Her popularity with progressives is unmatched and they are a must have for a Keller victory. 

Former US Attorney Alex Uballez, a progressive, was seen early on as a potential threat to Keller by splitting the progressive with the mayor. 

That threat remains but is less potent because of Uballez' inability to raise sufficient campaign funds. Still, Uballez could capture enough progressives to keep Keller from running away with the election and making any runoff more challenging for him. 

Uballez

Uballez gave a closing speech online as he presided over a phone bank of his own. 

Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta pointed out that ABQ's North Valley In District One and SE Heights Council District Six are areas where Keller has had landslides in his past elections but this year Uballez is competing for that block. The result is Rep. Stansbury's final hours push for Keller. 

STANSBURY AND TAPPER 

Like Keller, Stansbury puts a burr under the saddles of their opposition. She is unapologetically progressive and capable of making cogent and powerful arguments before the state as well as the nation. The problem they (and MLG) present to their conservative foes is that their errors on the public stage are small. 

That was this case with an interview Stansbury conducted with CNN's Jake Tapper that conservatives went ballistic over, claiming that it was a take down of the congresswoman. 

She did avoid a question asking why she hasn't asked Senators Heinrich and Lujan to end the government shutdown. But it was a standard if annoying deflection from a politician. Tapper also got the better of her over whey the shutdown was occurring. On the other hand, her vigorous attack on the Trump administration over food stamps being cut off resonated with Dem viewers. 

Keller, Stansbury and MLG are the three state politicians with the ability to advance their causes to a state and national audience. We get that the Democratic polices from the trio is fair game but you can't beat heavyweights with featherweights. 

Conservatives need a New Mexico bench and they don't have one. They lack even one member of the five member congressional delegation. They don't get to go on CNN or any other national media. 

As for Senators Heinrich and Lujan, with New Mexico so dependent on federal funding the pressure on them to end the government shutdown will only grow. That CNN question Stansbury evaded looms large. 

WHITE'S CLOSING

Former BernCo Sheriff Darren White came with one of his last ads and aimed it at Republicans and other conservative voters. It features that old reliable of sanctuary city. The transcript:

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.