Thursday, June 30, 2022

Part One of Election Year 2022 Is In The Books; What Did We Learn?

Thanks for stopping by. A quick reminder. We take a break from blogging for the upcoming July 4th holiday week and will be back with you on July 11. Happy Fourth! Now on to the trail. 

So what did we learn from the first half of election year 2022? Here are the takeaways.

--When it comes to the lower statewide executive offices it appears the Democrats will once again have a sweep. The races for Secretary of State, Attorney General, Land Commissioner, State Treasurer and State Auditor are all safe for the Dems as the GOP does not appear to be mounting a serious challenge for any of them. That's not unexpected. Most of those offices have been Dem-controlled for decades with only an occasional R sneaking in. 

--In the race for Governor, we learned the MLG's edge over Republican rival Mark Ronchetti has been sharpened in big Bernalillo County thanks to a US Supreme court anti-abortion ruling that will help motive her voters here. A consultant working for a pro-life group in an Oklahoma GOP US Senate primary this week surprised us when he informed that some Republican women approached at their doors did not want to hear their pitch, citing the repeal of Roe by the high court. If some GOP women are balking over that ruling it shows it has political punch.

--We didn't quite learn what the make-up of the state House will be in 2023 during the first half of this year but we do know that there is a reasonable chance that when the counting is done for the 70 seats, there probably wont be a big party change. Republicans are hoping for a pick up of two or three on a goiod night and Dems would be happy to hold their own or pick up one. That means the large Dem majority in the House is likely to run into 2023-24.

--We learned from the first half of the year that voter turnout does not appear headed into the cellar. Despite a lackluster primary ballot, total turnout was 25 percent of registered major party voters. That may sound low but it's only a couple of points lower than usual. Based on that result look for at least an average turnout in the November election. Yes, that usually benefits the Dems.

--It's what we didn't learn about the battle for the southern congressional seat that stands out in the first half. As we reported this week, there is much wondering over how much the national Dems will come to the aid of Dem nominee Gabe Vasquez in his campaign against first term GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell. That answer alone could decide the contest. As for the other two congressional seats, they are considered likely Democrat, but that doesn't mean Reps Stansbury and Leger Fernandez aren't running a bit scared. Stansbury is seeking her first full term after winning a special election last year to fill the vacancy left by Deb Haaland. Fernandez is seeking her second term, always a perilous time.

(An earlier version of this report incorrectly said Rep. Stansbury was seeking election for the first time and that Fernandez was serving her second term.)

--We learned in in the first half that there will be another major campaign on the ballot that few are aware of. That will be a multi-million dollar media campaign on behalf of the proposed constitutional amendment that would tap a portion of the state's $22 billion Land Grant Permanent School Fund for early childhood education as well as the public schools. That is a lot of money and could motivate more turnout. 

Now La Politica heads to the second half of '22 and we'll be here from our front row seat to report all the twists and turns. Stay with us. 

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan and. .  .

This is the home of New Mexico politics. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022