Dow and Ronchetti

Let's catch up on the '22 GOP Guv clash. 

Interviews with a variety of observers indicate Rebecca Dow appears to have tightened up the chase for the Republican Guv nomination due largely to her hard-hitting TV ad on critical race theory but just how far she has come against Mark Ronchetti and how much further she can go remain open questions.

Dow has pivoted from the border issue and onto CRT with a pure conservative punch that left the more middle of the road Ronchetti at the side of the road for the time being. 

Her ideological play appeals to the most likely GOP primary voters while Ronchetti tries to walk a tightrope of embracing his conservative party but not giving away positioning for the more moderate electorate in the November election. 

His latest ad focuses on the state's crime problem, citing "catch and release"of notorious criminals. 

Longtime Dem consultant David Alcon called the Dow CRT move effective but says she still faces a hurdle with Trumper Jay Block:

And here is that red meat in the form of a transcript of Dow's CRT ad:

Because of his widespread name ID, a 2020 run for the US Senate and a hefty campaign war chest, Ronchetti, a former weather forecaster for KRQE, has been the presumed frontrunner in the five way race but Alcon sees that shifting as the June 7 primary nears:

There are no public polls to confirm that assessment but it is also shared by longtime campaign consultant Greg Payne, a former Republican, state legislator and attorney who agrees that Block's appeal to Trump supporters remain an obstacle for Dow.

The campaigns are polling regularly but no results have been released. In February Ronchetti's camp released a survey they conducted and boasted that it showed him "crushing" his primary foes. But since then Dow has gone on the air and no additional polling has been released from Ronchetti. 

A source in the Dow camp said several weeks ago her first TV ad on the border and that featured her on horseback with sheriffs from border counties cut Ronchetti's lead by 8 points but did not indicate how much of a lead remained. 

The race is expected to move into negative territory soon with absentee voting set to begin May 10. Ronchetti can be expected to attack Dow over an ethics flap in her role as a state representative and Dow can be expected to paint Ronchetti as a pretend conservative. 

Candidate Greg Zanetti has yet to be seen on the airwaves but has enough money for a later TV buy. Block has been underfunded and how much media visibility he will have in the final weeks is undetermined. However, he did win the February GOP preprimary convention, demonstrating his appeal among the party's most faithful members.

Also in the contest is anti-abortion activist Ethel Maharg who is also underfunded.

Youngkin employed CRT in his successful governor campaign and only hours after he took the oath in January he issued an executive order banning CRT in the state's public schools.

Axiom promotes their business as "an unyielding force for success." They lived up to that hype and then some in Virginia. Now New Mexico waits to see if the group with the hot hand can pull another one off. 

Southern NM newsman Walt Rubel reports from Las Cruces that the leading GOP Guv candidates are still struggling to establish themselves there. That's because their TV ads are not popping up in living rooms. He notes that Cruces is in the El Paso media market so even former TV weather star Ronchetti, known in the south for his Senate run, still has to establish himself as a Guv contender. Rubel says of the overall race:

Another reader advises Rebecca Dow to just say no when it comes to pursuing an endorsement from Trump: