Thursday, April 14, 2022

Dow And Trump: Sources Report Talk Of Trump Endorsement of Her Guv Candidacy is More Than Idle Chatter; Analyst Weighs In, Plus: Even More Campaign Money Reports; A Look at Key Dem House Races

GOP Guv candidate Rebecca Dow possibly getting an endorsement from former President Trump is more than idle chatter, according to our senior sources. 

They report that the Dow camp has had contact with former Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows about a possible endorsement. Now the guessing game is on about whether an endorsement will be offered, whether Dow wants to go there and if she does what impact it would have on the race. 

Dow is running second to Mark Ronchetti in the five way GOP primary contest. She may be ambivalent about accepting an endorsement from Trump because of the negative impact it could have with a more moderate electorate in the general election but as former state legislator, attorney and veteran campaign consultant Greg Payne explains, she may have no choice. 

Trump's endorsements are not as anticipated as they once were. An example is his backing of Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania’s US Senate GOP race and which appears to be backfiring. But Dow is facing a front-runner who has $1.55 million in cash compared to her $684,000 (as of April 4). She must shake up the race. If the Trump endorsement is offered she should take it and worry about the consequences if she wins the primary. One thing seems certain--an endorsement would bring with it the dollars needed for her to better compete with Ronchetti. That could be the game changer she needs and she can't afford to leave that opportunity on the table. 

Dow is on the air with a TV spot that mentions "Trump's wall" and  it's working for her, but she is being heavily outspent by Ronchetti who is staying mum on the ex-prez. If the poll numbers don't move more her way, a Trump endorsement may look more attractive. 

Also holding Dow back are fellow candidates Greg Zanetti and Jay Block, who pros say are effectively out of the race after weak finance reports, but who are staying in and preventing her from consolidating the large Trump vote. 

The current trajectory favors the former TV weatherman's nomination June 7 but there are still cards to be played--or not played--in this high stakes political poker game. 

FOLLOWING THE MONEY (AGAIN)

Political junkies have been growing bleary-eyed as they pore over the latest campaign finance reports for primary candidates. They're enjoying it though since these are the first reports since last October and reveal who is positioned best for the June primary. 

Let's pick over some of the key state House reports.

In District 40 in Rio Arriba and Mora counties, former Dem state Rep. Joseph Sanchez is trying to oust Rep. Roger Montoya in the primary and he has the money to do it. Sanchez raised $34,700 in the six months ending April 4 and reported $31,000 in cash on hand. Rep. Montoya raised $66,000 but has already spent $52,000 and reports $13,000 in cash. 

Also in Rio Arriba County in the north, Rep. Susan Herrera is getting challenged by fellow Dem Marlo Martinez in the June primary. She reported raising $30,000 and had $12,000 in cash. Martinez got in the race relatively late and reported raising $12,000 but he also has $12,000 in cash on hand. 

Taos area Rep. Kristen Ortez is being opposed by Florence Miera for the Dem nomination but Miera who entered the race late reports raising $4,000 to Ortez's $41,000. Ortez had $37,000 in cash compared to Miera's $2,600. 

In that closely watched race to replace ABQ westside Rep. Georgene Louis, who is leaving her seat after a DWI arrest, Cherise Quezada and former Rep. Eleanor Chavez are neck and neck, both raising $22,000 and both reporting about $19,000 in cash on hand. A race to watch, for sure.

In House District 38 that includes the city of Socorro and goes into Sierra and Catron counties, Socorro Mayor Ravi Bhaskar has lent himself $21,000 to kick start his primary campaign against fellow Dem Tara Jaramillo and has that amount in cash on hand. She has raised $24,000 and reports $23,000 in cash on hand. Another big battle to watch. 

LEADER MONEY

As for the current Dem House leadership, Majority Leader Javier Martinez reports $106,000 in cash on hand. He has no primary opposition but will face a GOP opponent in November  in the deep blue district. Martinez will dole out much of his campaign booty to fellow Dem candidates as he prepares to run for House Speaker after the November election. 

House Majority Whip Doreen Gallegos of Las Cruces reports a whopping $135,000 in cash on hand. She faces no Dem primary but will have GOP opposition in the fall in her heavy D district. Her cash pile is sure to attract a line of candidates to her door seeking donations. 

That's a wrap for this week. Happy Easter, New Mexico. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022