Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Game On: GOP Guv Race Fully Joined As Dow Goes On Airwaves With Ad That Calls Ronchetti A TV Blowhard; She Says "Finish Trump's Wall," His Campaign Blasts Back Calling Her Ad "Fake"; Cites Her Legislative Record

Dow and her Sheriffs
Rebecca Dow seemed to resolve a lot of her problems in one fell swoop Tuesday as she came with a straight-from-the-shoulder TV spot that clearly defined her candidacy and presented her as a credible and organized alternative to leading GOP Guv candidate Mark Ronchetti.

While Ronchetti's latest ad highlights crime and appears directed toward ABQ area voters, Dow's ad is laser-focused on the hearts and minds of Trump Republicans, replete with tough talking New Mexico sheriffs backing her up as they ride together on horseback at Ground Zero for Trumpism--the US border wall. 

And in a risky, come-from-behind play Dow takes an axe and splits the GOP, with her campaign giving this description of the spot:

The ad takes aim at liberal Democrats and establishment Republicans that have neglected to finish Trump’s wall and secure our southern border despite rising crime and the constant flow of drugs into New Mexico.

Dow's swipe at Ronchetti comes right at the start of the ad, titled "True Grit," when the narrator declares:

Politicians and TV blowhards talk a lot about the border but out here show ponies spook pretty easily. 

During that narration TV sets planted in the desert landscape play video of Ronchetti and MLG. 

The ad continues:

Securing the border will take strength and grit. 

Sheriff Warren Walter (Hidalgo County): “Rebecca Dow is tough as nails.” 
 
Sheriff Glenn Hamilton (Sierra): “She’s true grit.”

"I’m Rebecca Dow. I’m not here to put on a show. I’m here to fight radical socialists, defend our Constitutional rights, and finish President Trump’s wall." 

Sheriff Kelly Gannaway (Luna): “We either Back Dow or we Back Down!”

The Trump crowd has never been in Ronchetti's corner and he not in theirs, so taking advantage of that vulnerability was not difficult. But the question of whether Dow could do it hovered over her campaign as Ronchetti approached becoming the presumptive nominee. 

But Dow did it. Assuming this ad has the necessary financial backing, the '22 GOP gubernatorial contest is now competitive. 

ANALYSIS, PLEASE

We asked a veteran Democratic consultant for further analysis:

Joe, this is what the Trump voters were waiting for. The ad is more daring than Ronchetti's and is going to stick in people's minds. Her riding horseback with the sheriffs gives her an image of toughness that a female candidate needs and having the sheriffs back her up convincingly is a major plus. 

Other points: The ad also takes a bite out of Jay Block who has been going for the same Trump vote. The ad will resonate with rural Hispanics, a group up for grabs. The spot could also get more Republicans excited about this race, something Ronchetti has been trying to avoid at all costs. Finally, the frankness of the ad should help her fund-raising. In other words, this spot gets a lot of work done for Dow.

Ronchetti's campaign, aware of the danger of Dow rapidly consolidating Trump voters and more (Trump beat Biden in the southern congressional district in 2020 by 55 to 43), immediately hit back, labeling her TV ad "fake," and attacking the record of the T or C state representative: 

At a time when families were struggling and 40% of small businesses were closing for good in New Mexico, politicians in our state gave taxpayer-funded stimulus checks to illegal immigrants, including the politician now claiming in a fake TV ad to be tough on illegal immigration. . . In 6 years in the legislature, she has sponsored bills on everything from making it cheaper to buy face masks to creating “Spaceport America Day.” But Dow has never sponsored a single bill to address border security. This is typical from the political elites – they believe they can tell voters one thing in TV ads and vote in a completely opposite way in office. 

Ronchetti could escalate his attacks in the coming days, hoping to interrupt any early bonding Dow's commercial presence delivers and doing so while she is relatively unknown. 

In his retort, his campaign cites his lead in the polls and that the goal for R's must be to defeat MLG. Not exactly a rallying cry for the true believers who populate today's GOP. And maybe not in sync with the growing anger among voters. 

The former TV weatherman's campaign was in the sweet spot for the nomination, given the state of the opposition, but that campaign now hints of some blandness as Dow has mounted her Trumpian horse and is charging hard. Game on. 

FOOTNOTES

In her ad Dow says she is "not putting on a show" but her finance report notes payment to Madison-McQueen, a Hollywood ad agency, for campaign video last year. The agency handled the '16 presidential campaign of Republican Ted Cruz and presumably is the producer of Dow's ad. The agency's promotional material says, "Bringing Hollywood production value to the war of ideas." Maybe they don't want to promote that in Artesia. The campaign did not respond to an inquiry.

Dow's chief campaign consultants are with Kansas City based Axiom Strategies who have also served as consultants to Senator Cruz, a possible 2024 presidential candidate.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022