Monday, March 21, 2022

Dem Special Session Deal Spares Guv Embarrassment And Shifts Focus To Economy; She Avoids Veto Override, Plus: Fresh Rebate Debate; How Much? And: GOP Power Player Pat Rogers Dead In ABQ

MLG will be spared the embarrassment of having a veto overturned by her own party and New Mexicans' wallets will be fattened to cope with soaring fuel and other prices.

That's the deal--a politically essential one for the Democrats--struck between the Governor and lawmakers disgruntled over her veto of a prized $50 million pork bill that had them considering calling themselves into an extraordinary session to overturn the veto. 

Instead, a chastened Fourth Floor did a turnaround and negotiated a special session she will call for April 5 where a new pork bill will be drafted that the legislature can approve and put the ugly memory of the veto in the rearview mirror. 

And that sigh of relief heard in the dens of Democrats is the agreement to have only the spending bill and inflation relief on the special agenda. No combative and unproductive arguments (and divisive stalemates) over crime, hydrogen energy and the like. 

This smart politics deal leaves Republicans grouchy as it deprives them of a major opportunity to sow discord in the state's majority party as they attempt to take back the Governor's office this November. 

Senate Minority Leader Greg Baca declared that the "people of New Mexico will not forget" the "vindictive" veto of the bill that included funding for senior programs and law enforcement equipment.
But memories are short and the veto will be--if not forgotten--a mere footnote now that MLG has basically admitted to an unforced error and is making amends.

What will be remembered about the upcoming special is how much relief New Mexicans will get from steep gas and grocery prices.  

True to form the austerity hawks at the powerful Legislative Finance Committee are already lowballing proposed rebates, putting a ceiling on them as low as $110 for those singles with incomes below $75,000 and double that for households below $150,000.

But that's now chump change, argue those urging larger--much larger--rebates. 

They make the case that the rebates will be one time--not recurring--so they won't place a burden on the state if the financial sky were to fall. 

Not that such a fall is expected anytime soon. With the booming SE NM Permian Basin now expected to churn out revenue from the Black Gold for years--not months:

. . . The boom times are likely here to stay, at least for the next few years, given the vast shale-based reservoirs yet to be tapped in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas, said Raoul LeBlanc, vice president at IHS Markit, a global energy consultant. “The Permian Basin remains the best place to drill in the U.S. in terms of profitability. Plays in other basins will likely grow given today’s prices, but we believe the Permian Basin will remain the primary growth place for the country going forward.

When will the LFC bean counters adjust to this new reality? 

Given the backdrop even tight-fisted Senate Finance Committee Chairman George Munoz is less chintzy than the LFC as he eyes rebates of $300 for single taxpayer filers and $600 for joint filers.

But even that is seen as inadequate in a state that is generating so much revenue that reserve funds are being accumulated at an unprecedented rate and as consumers fight sticker shock at the grocery and gas pumps. 

THE MAINE WAY

The circumstance prompts an eyebrow raiser from conservative House Minority Leader Jim Townsend  now arguing that the $250 rebates approved at the recent session of the Legislature were a pittance: 

Townsend, R-Artesia, said the rebate amounted to a pittance when considering the significant increase in costs for the average household. He added that rural New Mexico is feeling the pinch even more since residents have to drive farther for groceries and doctor visits. . . We have to be concerned about people's standard of living. Today in New Mexico, about 24% of seniors live in poverty and a little more than a third of those are raising grandchildren because of family issues.

Welcome aboard, Jim. We've been waiting for you. And how much do you think the new rebates should be? Which takes us to the state of Maine. Yes--Maine--where we find a rebate number that could easily be plugged into New Mexico:

Maine’s governor released a revised budget proposal that would increase checks the state plans to send to residents to $850. Democratic Gov. Janet Mills said she wants to increase the relief checks because of factors such as high inflation and rising fuels costs. The money would go to residents who earn less than $75,000 as individuals or $150,000 if filing jointly.  Mills said the checks would give back half the state’s surplus to about 800,000 residents of the state.  If approved, the proposal would result in a $8.67 billion General Fund budget. The currently enacted budget is $8.5 billion. 

Maine's rebates would cost $652 million, half that state's surplus. If New Mexico went that route the state would be handing back to taxpayers $1.25 billion of the $2.5 billion General Fund reserve--and that doesn't include other billions accumulating in the the Revenue Stabilization Fund, the Early Childhood Trust Fund, the Land Grant Permanent School Fund or the Severance Tax Permanent Fund, 

The rebate checks approved at the last session will cost $338 million. The math is easy. Double those checks to $500 and $1000 and you come in at less than $700 million. And that may not be a pittance but neither is it a bounty when you consider that surplus revenues continue to soar to previously unimagined heights. 

As Rep. Townsend pointed out, we have one of the largest percentages of low income residents in the nation whose pocketbooks are hit hardest by this bout of nasty inflation. The Governor and the legislature have plenty of room to think big and go big. 

PAT ROGERS 

Pat Rogers will be remembered as a fierce Republican warrior, taking on anyone with a D in front of their name and often fellow Republicans. 

Rogers, 66, died in Albuquerque over the weekend.  Friends say the cause was cancer. 

Rogers rose to political fame as an attorney for the Republican Party, a NM GOP National Committeeman and a lobbyist with deep ties to Gov. Martinez's (2011-2018) political machine. 

Rogers' bulldog approach always kept him just steps away from controversy. In 2012 as the state's Republican National Committeeman he fell on his sword when he suggested in an email to Martinez staffers that she had "dishonored" Col. Custer by attending a summit with state tribal leaders. The statement caused a furor but Rogers dismissed it as a weak attempt at humor. 

Rogers' lengthy communications as a lobbyist via private email accounts with Martinez administration staffers was another major headline he made. Those communications, in which he comfortably discussed a wide range of issues with top officials, cost him his position with the NM Foundation for Open Government. 

His service at FOG was long-standing and praised, even as he ran afoul of transparency standards while lobbying.

Within the GOP Rogers was at the founding of the party's most visible modern split--the one between advocates for Martinez and those who opposed her like prominent Republican oilman Harvey Yates. 

It's a split that persists to this day and surfaced again last month when GOP Guv candidate Mark Ronchetti, whose political consultant Jay McCleskey headed the Martinez machine, ran into headwinds at the GOP preprimary convention. 

Yates took on Rogers for the committeeman post in 2016 and ousted him in yet another major development in Rogers' long political career.

As a GOP attorney Rogers was also deeply involved in pushing allegations of voter fraud and was involved in numerous court actions. No major fraud was ever demonstrated even as the GOP made the issue a centerpiece of their agenda as seen in the 2020 presidential election. 

The state GOP said of his passing:

A talented attorney and dedicated Republican, Pat helped advanced the conservative cause in New Mexico for many years. Our prayers are with Pat's friends and family during this trying time. He will be greatly missed. 

Pat Rogers had the courage of his convictions and brought his "A" game to any battle he joined. His topsy-turvy time on the stage certainly earned him a chapter in the never ending book of La Politica. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022